The seismicity of Campi Flegrei in the contest of an evolving long term unrest

Abstract

One of the most effective approaches to identifying possible precursors of eruptions is the analysis of seismicity patterns recorded at volcanoes. Accurate locations of the seismicity and the estimate of source mechanisms can resolve fault systems and track fluid migrations through volcanoes. We analysed the six main swarms recorded at Campi Flegrei since 2000, using them as a proxy of the processes involved in the long-term-unrest of this densely populated caldera. We re-located the earthquakes comprised in these swarms and estimated the focal mechanisms, which appear in agreement with the fault systems of the caldera and with tomographic images. The focal mechanisms are in agreement with the tensional stress induced by the caldera uplift. Most of the swarms and remaining seismicity delineate a highly fractured volume extending vertically below the Solfatara/ Pisciarelli vents, where gases find preferential paths to the surface triggering earthquakes. The main swarms are located below this volume where the presence of a rigid caprock is still debated. We interpreted the current unrest in term of a gradual increment in the activity of a wide hydrothermal system whose most evident manifestation is the enlargement of the fumarolic-field of Pisciarelli and the increment of the earthquakes occurrence rate.