The 2018 unrest phase at La Soufrière of Guadeloupe (French West Indies) andesitic volcano: Scrutiny of a failed but prodromal phreatic eruption

Abstract

After 25 years of gradual increase, volcanic unrest at La Soufrière of Guadeloupe reached its highest seismic en- ergy level on 27 April 2018, with the largest felt volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquake (ML 4.1 or MW 3.7) recorded since the 1976–1977 phreatic eruptive crisis. This event marked the onset ofa seismic swarm(180 events, 2 felt) occurring after three previous swarms on 3–6 January (70 events), 1 st February (30 events, 1 felt) and 16–17 April (140 events, 1 felt). Many events were hybrid VTs with long-period codas, located 2–4 km below the vol- cano summit and clustered within 2 km along a regional NW-SE fault cross-cutting La Soufrière. Elastic energy release increased with eachswarmwhereas inter-event time shortened. At the same time, summit fractures con- tinued to open and thermal anomalies to extend. Summit fumarolic activity increased significantly until 20 April, with a maximum temperature of111.4 °C and gas exit velocity of80 m/s, before declining to ~95 °C and ~33 m/s on 25 April. Gas compositions revealed increasing C/S and CO2/CH4 ratios and indicate hydrothermal P-T condi- tions that reached the critical point ofpure water. Repeated MultiGAS analysis of fumarolic plumes showed in- creased CO2/H2S ratios and SO2 contents associated with the reactivation of degassing fractures (T = 93 °C, H2S/SO2 ≈ 1). While no direct evidence ofupward magma migration was detected, we attribute the above phe- nomena to an increased supply ofdeepmagmatic fluids that heated and pressurized the La Soufrière hydrother- mal system, triggering seismogenic hydro-fracturing, and probable changes in deep hydraulic properties (permeability) and drainage pathways, which ultimately allowed the fumarolic fluxes to lower. Although this magmatic fluid injectionwasmodulated by the hydrothermal system, the unprecedented seismic energy release and the critical point conditions ofhydrothermal fluids suggest that the 2018 sequence ofevents can be regarded as a failed phreatic eruption. Should a similar sequence repeat, we warn that phreatic explosive activity could re- sult fromdisruption ofthe shallowhydrothermal system that is currently responsible for 3–9mm/y ofnearly ra- dial horizontal displacements within 1 km from the dome. Another potential hazard is partial collapse of the dome's SW flank, already affected by basal spreading above a detachment surface inherited from past collapses. Finally, the increased magmatic fluid supply evidenced by geochemical indicators in 2018 is compatible with magma replenishment of the 6–7 kmdeep crustal reservoir feeding La Soufrière and, therefore, with a potential evolution of the volcano's activity towards magmatic conditions.