Accuracy assessment of the MUF(3000) nowcasting for PECASUS Space Weather services

Abstract

The Pan-European Consortium for Aviation Space Weather User Services (PECASUS) is one of the three global Space Weather Centers appointed by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) to generate Space Weather advisories for aviation users. One of the key operational 24/7 products developed by INGV for the HF domain is the MUF(3000) nowcasting, based on a mapping procedure over Europe, which makes use of the available real-time measurements in different locations, and the Ordinary Kriging method for spatial interpolation. The outputs of this procedure have been analysed during three strong geomagnetic storms, and the results have been compared on the basis of the Root Mean Square Error values obtained between predicted and measured MUF(3000) values at two different test stations. A good accuracy is achieved during the considered storm periods, being the overall Root Mean Square Error values at the test stations less than 2 MHz. However, particular cases show that this method could miss possible sudden ionospheric perturbations, and the effect of erroneous data on the accuracy estimation.