A probabilistic seismic hazard map of India and adjoining regions

Abstract

This paper presents the results of an exercise carried out under GSHAP, over India and adjoining regions bound by 0°N-40°N and 65°E-100°E. A working catalogue of main shocks was prepared by merging the local catalogues with the NOAA catalogue, and removing duplicates, aftershocks and earthquakes without any magnitude. Eighty six potential seismic source zones were delineated based on the major tectonic features and seismicity trends. Using the probabilistic hazard assessment approach of McGuire, adopted by GSHAP, the Peak Ground Accelerations (PGA) were computed for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, at locations defined by a grid of 0.5° x 0.5°. Since no reliable estimates of attenuation values are available for the Indian region, the attenuation relation of Joyner and Boore (1981) was used. The PGA values over the grid points were contoured to obtain a seismic hazard map. The hazard map depicts that a majority of the Northern Indian plate boundary region and the Tibetan plateau region have hazard level of the order of 0.25 g with prominent highs of the order of 0.35-0.4 g in the seismically more active zones like the Burmese arc, Northeastern India and Hindukush region. In the Indian shield, the regional seismic hazard, covering a major area, is of the order of 0.05-0.1 g whereas some areas like Koyna depict hazard to the level of 0.2 g. The present map can be converted into a conventional seismic zoning map having four zones with zone factors of 0.1 g, 0.2 g, 0.3 g and 0.4 g respectively.