On the validity of the regional time and magnitude predictable model in China

Abstract

A simplified form of the "regional time and magnitude predictable model" gives the time interval, T, between two successive mainshocks in a region and the magnitude, Mf, of the following mainshock by the relations: logT=cMP+a; Mf=CMp+A, where Mp is the magnitude of the preceding mainshock, a, A are constants which depend on the minimum considered mainshock and on the region's tectonic loading (moment rate). The physical meaning of the model is that the larger the magnitude of the preceding main shock, Mp, the longer the time, T, will be till the occurrence of the next one and the smaller its magnitude, Mf. This means that parameters c and C are positive and negative, respectively, when the model has been found valid for a certain area. In order to examine if the above model is appropriate to describe the seismicity behavior in the area of China, a detailed inspection was carried out aiming to show if the estimated values of parameters c and C favor the model. The results show that c tends to the global value 0.33, obtained by Papazachos and Papadimitriou (1997), and that C tends to be within the range [-0.30, -0.23]. The results, which favored the model, greatly outnumber those that do not follow it, the latter being concentrated around the boundaries of the seismically active regions. It is concluded that the results, which favor the model, obviously dominate the whole territory of China.