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Forecasting of the first hour aftershocks by means of the perceived magnitude
Language
English
Obiettivo Specifico
Status
Published
JCR Journal
JCR Journal
Title of the book
Issue/vol(year)
/10 (2019)
Pages (printed)
id 2953
Issued date
2019
Abstract
The majority of strong earthquakes takes place a few hours after a mainshock, promoting the interest for a real time post-seismic forecasting, which is, however, very inefficient because of the incompleteness of available catalogs. Here we present a novel method that uses, as only information, the ground velocity recorded during the first 30 min after the mainshock and does not require that signals are transferred and elaborated by operational units. The method considers the logarithm of the mainshock ground velocity, its peak value defined as the perceived magnitude and the subsequent temporal decay. We conduct a forecast test on the nine M ≥ 6 mainshocks that have occurred since 2013 in the Aegean area. We are able to forecast the number of aftershocks recorded during the first 3 days after each mainshock with an accuracy smaller than 18% in all cases but one with an accuracy of 36%.
Type
article
File(s)
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Name
2019_Lippiello_Nature.pdf
Size
3.62 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
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