Favourability modelling of landslide hazard with spatial uncertainty ofclass membership: a reapplication in central Slovenia

Abstract

This contribution stems from the exposure of two different approaches to the representation of natural hazard: regression analysis on one side and favourability models on the other. As a consequence a spatial database for landslide hazard prediction in central Slovenia was shared to experiment on spatial prediction via cross-validation techniques. Due to the peculiarities of the database three types of analyses were selected: (i) predictions using an Empirical Likelihood Ratio model and four types of landslides in a training area, and extended to a surrounding study area; (ii) iterative cross-validations to obtain target, uncertainty and their combination patterns; and (iii) separation of one type of landslides into two groups of well predicted and poorly predicted occurrences by a cross-validation with the target pattern. The importance is underlined of sharing databases to encourage broader views of methodologies and strategies in spatial modelling.