Impacts of Climate Change on Volcanic Stratospheric Injections: Comparison of 1‐D and 3‐D Plume Model Projections

Abstract

Explosive volcanic eruptions are one of the most important driver of climate variability. Yet, we still lack a fundamental understanding of how climate change may affect future eruptions. Here, we use an ensemble of simulations by 1‐D and 3‐D volcanic plume models spanning a large range of eruption source and atmospheric conditions to assess changes in the dynamics of future eruptive columns. Our results shed new light on differences between the predictions of 1‐D and 3‐D plume models. Furthermore, both models suggest that as a result of ongoing climate change, for tropical eruptions, (i) higher eruption intensities will be required for plumes to reach the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere and (ii) the height of plumes currently reaching the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere or above will increase. We discuss the implications of these results for the climatic impacts of future eruptions. Our simulations can directly inform climate model experiments on climate‐volcano feedback.