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Authors: Liang, Yu‐Chiao* 
Kwon, Young‐Oh* 
Frankignoul, Claude* 
Danabasoglu, Gokhan* 
Yeager, Stephen* 
Cherchi, Annalisa* 
Gao, Yongqi* 
Gastineau, Guillaume* 
Ghosh, Rohit* 
Matei, Daniela* 
Mecking, Jennifer V.* 
Peano, Daniele* 
Suo, Lingling* 
Tian, Tian* 
Title: Quantification of the Arctic Sea Ice‐Driven Atmospheric Circulation Variability in Coordinated Large Ensemble Simulations
Journal: Geophysical Research Letters 
Series/Report no.: /47 (2020)
Issue Date: 2020
DOI: 10.1029/2019GL085397
Abstract: A coordinated set of large ensemble atmosphere‐only simulations is used to investigatethe impacts of observed Arctic sea ice‐driven variability (SIDV) on the atmospheric circulation during1979–2014. The experimental protocol permits separating Arctic SIDV from internal variability andvariability driven by other forcings including sea surface temperature and greenhouse gases. The geographicpattern of SIDV is consistent across seven participating models, but its magnitude strongly depends onensemble size. Based on 130 members, winter SIDV is ~0.18 hPa2for Arctic‐averaged sea level pressure(~1.5% of the total variance), and ~0.35 K2for surface air temperature (~21%) at interannual and longertimescales. The results suggest that more than 100 (40) members are needed to separate Arctic SIDV fromother components for dynamical (thermodynamical) variables, and insufficient ensemble size always leadsto overestimation of SIDV. Nevertheless, SIDV is 0.75–1.5 times as large as the variability driven by otherforcings over northern Eurasia and Arctic.
Description: ©2019. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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