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http://hdl.handle.net/2122/12584
Authors: | Gulia, Laura* Rinaldi, A. P.* Tormann, T.* Vannucci, Gianfranco* Enescu, B.* Wiemer, Stefan* |
Title: | The Effect of a Mainshock on the Size Distribution of the Aftershocks | Journal: | Geophysical Research Letters | Series/Report no.: | /45 (2018) | Issue Date: | Dec-2018 | DOI: | 10.1029/2018GL080619 | Subject Classification: | 04. Solid Earth | Abstract: | A systematic decay of the aftershock rate over time is one of the most fundamental empirical laws in Earth science. However, the equally fundamental effect of a mainshock on the size distribution of subsequent earthquakes has still not been quantified today and is therefore not used in earthquake hazard assessment. We apply a stacking approach to well-recorded earthquake sequences to extract this effect. Immediately after a mainshock, the mean size distribution of events, or b-value, increases by 20-30%, considerably decreasing the chance of subsequent larger events. This increase is strongest in the immediate vicinity of the mainshock, decreasing rapidly with distance but only gradually over time. We present a model that explains these observations as a consequence of the stress changes in the surrounding area caused by the mainshocks slip. Our results have substantial implications for how seismic risk during earthquake sequences is assessed. |
Appears in Collections: | Article published / in press |
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Gulia_bvalue_stacking_2018_GRL.pdf | 3.82 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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