Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/12221
DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.date.accessioned2019-02-05T10:39:37Zen
dc.date.available2019-02-05T10:39:37Zen
dc.date.issued2019en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2122/12221en
dc.descriptionThis article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©: The Authors 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy.en
dc.description.abstractThe most common earthquake forecasting models assume that the magnitude of the next earthquake is independent from the past. This feature severely limits the capability to forecast large earthquakes with high probabilities. Here we investigate empirically on the magnitude-independence assumption, exploring if: (i) background and triggered earthquakes have the same frequency–magnitude distribution, (ii) variations of seismicity in the space–time–magnitude domain encode some information on the future earthquakes size. For this purpose, and to verify the stability of the findings, we consider seismic catalogues covering different space–time–magnitude windows, such as the Alto Tiberina Near Fault Observatory (TABOO), the California and Japanese seismic catalogues. Our approach is inspired by the nearest-neighbour method proposed by Baiesi & Paczuski and elaborated by Zaliapin et al. to distinguish between triggered and background earthquakes. Here we implement the same metric-based correlation to identify the precursory seismicity of any triggered earthquake; this allows us to analyse, for each triggered earthquake, the space–time–magnitude distribution of the seismicity that likely contributed to its occurrence. Our results show that the magnitude-independence assumption holds reasonably well in all catalogues, with a remarkable exception that is consistent with a previous independent study; this departure from the magnitude-independence assumption shows that larger events tend to nucleate at a higher distance from the ongoing sequence. We also notice that the reliability of this assumption may depend on the spatial scale considered; it holds for seismic catalogues of large areas, but we identify possible departures in small areas, reflecting different ways to release locally seismic energy. Finally, we come across an important issue that may lead to misleading results in similar studies, that is, if a seismic catalogue appears overall complete above a fixed magnitude threshold, it may still yield spurious signals into the analysis. Specifically, we show that some significant departures from the magnitude-independence assumption do not survive when considering spatiotemporal variations of the magnitude of completeness.en
dc.language.isoEnglishen
dc.relation.ispartofGeophysical Journal Internationalen
dc.relation.ispartofseries/216 (2019)en
dc.subjectPersistence, memory, correlations, clustering, Probability distributions, Spatial analysis, Statistical methods, Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction, Statistical seismologyen
dc.titleEmpirical evaluation of the magnitude-independence assumptionen
dc.typearticleen
dc.description.statusPublisheden
dc.type.QualityControlPeer-revieweden
dc.description.pagenumber820–839en
dc.identifier.doi10.1093/gji/ggy459en
dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico4T. Sismologia, geofisica e geologia per l'ingegneria sismicaen
dc.description.journalTypeJCR Journalen
dc.contributor.authorStallone, Angelaen
dc.contributor.authorMarzocchi, Warneren
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italiaen
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italiaen
item.openairetypearticle-
item.cerifentitytypePublications-
item.languageiso639-1en-
item.grantfulltextopen-
item.openairecristypehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf-
item.fulltextWith Fulltext-
crisitem.author.deptIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia-
crisitem.author.orcid0000-0002-8141-017X-
crisitem.author.orcid0000-0002-9114-1516-
crisitem.author.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.department.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.department.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
Appears in Collections:Article published / in press
Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat
ggy459.pdf2.68 MBAdobe PDFView/Open
Show simple item record

WEB OF SCIENCETM
Citations 10

3
checked on Feb 10, 2021

Page view(s)

142
checked on Mar 27, 2024

Download(s)

129
checked on Mar 27, 2024

Google ScholarTM

Check

Altmetric