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Regional Short-Term Forecasting of Ionospheric TEC and Scintillation
Author(s)
Language
English
Obiettivo Specifico
2A. Fisica dell'alta atmosfera
Status
Published
JCR Journal
JCR Journal
Title of the book
Issue/vol(year)
/53 (2018)
Pages (printed)
1254-1268
Issued date
2018
Abstract
We describe a novel empirical technique for the regional, short-term (from seconds to minutes)
forecasting of both TEC (total electron content) and scintillation indices on Global Navigation Satellite System
signals. To provide TEC-forecasted values, the method exploits the continuity equation in the conservative
form, while the continuity equation with source term added is used in the case of scintillation forecasting.
The performance of the model is investigated, resulting to be satisfactory when applied at equatorial
latitudes in Brazil and during postsunset hours, when scintillation phenomena are more likely to occur. Five
days affected by strong amplitude scintillation events (S4 > 0.7) are used to test the model performance and
evaluate the model accuracy. In addition, the performance of the amplitude scintillation forecasting is
evaluated by leveraging on larger statistics. On the average, the forecasting accuracy, in terms of standard
deviation of the distributions of the differences between forecasted and actual values, is about 5% for TEC
and 15–20% for scintillation parameters.
forecasting of both TEC (total electron content) and scintillation indices on Global Navigation Satellite System
signals. To provide TEC-forecasted values, the method exploits the continuity equation in the conservative
form, while the continuity equation with source term added is used in the case of scintillation forecasting.
The performance of the model is investigated, resulting to be satisfactory when applied at equatorial
latitudes in Brazil and during postsunset hours, when scintillation phenomena are more likely to occur. Five
days affected by strong amplitude scintillation events (S4 > 0.7) are used to test the model performance and
evaluate the model accuracy. In addition, the performance of the amplitude scintillation forecasting is
evaluated by leveraging on larger statistics. On the average, the forecasting accuracy, in terms of standard
deviation of the distributions of the differences between forecasted and actual values, is about 5% for TEC
and 15–20% for scintillation parameters.
Type
article
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2018_Grzesiak_et_al_Modello_RadioScience.pdf
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