Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/12058
Authors: Barani, Simone* 
Mascandola, Claudia* 
Riccomagno, Eva* 
Spallarossa, Daniele* 
Albarello, Dario* 
Ferretti, Gabriele* 
Scafidi, Davide* 
Augliera, Paolo* 
Massa, Marco* 
Title: Long-range dependence in earthquake-moment release and implications for earthquake occurrence probability
Journal: Scientific reports 
Series/Report no.: /8(2018)
Issue Date: 28-Mar-2018
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-23709-4
Abstract: Since the beginning of the 1980s, when Mandelbrot observed that earthquakes occur on 'fractal' self-similar sets, many studies have investigated the dynamical mechanisms that lead to self-similarities in the earthquake process. Interpreting seismicity as a self-similar process is undoubtedly convenient to bypass the physical complexities related to the actual process. Self-similar processes are indeed invariant under suitable scaling of space and time. In this study, we show that long-range dependence is an inherent feature of the seismic process, and is universal. Examination of series of cumulative seismic moment both in Italy and worldwide through Hurst's rescaled range analysis shows that seismicity is a memory process with a Hurst exponent H ≈ 0.87. We observe that H is substantially space- and time-invariant, except in cases of catalog incompleteness. This has implications for earthquake forecasting. Hence, we have developed a probability model for earthquake occurrence that allows for long-range dependence in the seismic process. Unlike the Poisson model, dependent events are allowed. This model can be easily transferred to other disciplines that deal with self-similar processes.
Appears in Collections:Article published / in press

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat
Barani_Hurst.pdf3.83 MBAdobe PDFView/Open
Show full item record

WEB OF SCIENCETM
Citations 50

3
Last Week
0
Last month
0
checked on Feb 10, 2021

Page view(s)

325
Last Week
0
Last month
15
checked on May 15, 2021

Download(s)

13
checked on May 15, 2021

Google ScholarTM

Check

Altmetric