Bayesian Estimation of Macroseismic Intensity from Post-Earthquake Rapid

Abstract

The seismological community acknowledges the essential contribution of macro seismic assessment to the compilation of the seismic catalogues used for seismic hazard assessment. Furthermore, macroseismic observations are routinely employed by Civil Protection authorities in the aftermath of damaging events to improve their decision making capacity. In this contribution, we describe a novel methodology for the rapid, probabilistic estimation of the Macroseismic Intensity in the epicen tral area of a major event, according to the European Macroseismic scale (EMS-98). The methodology includes the use of mobile mapping and a collaborative on-line platform for rapid post-earthquake reconnaissance, A Bayesian scheme is proposed to integrate direct damage observations and prior information, hence allowing the consideration of ancillary data and expert judgment. According to a feasibility study that has been carried out in the area affected by the 2016 Amatrice (Central Italy) earthquake, the proposed methodology may provide a reliable estimation of inten sity, efficiently integrating further post-earthquake building damage surveys.