Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/11790
Authors: Conti, G.* 
Navarra, Antonio* 
Tribbia, J.* 
Title: The ENSO Transition Probabilities
Issue Date: 2-Jun-2017
Series/Report no.: /30 (2017)
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0490.1
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/11790
Abstract: ENSO is investigated here by considering it as a transition from different states. Transition probability matrices can be defined to describe the evolution of ENSO in this way. Sea surface temperature anomalies are classified into four categories, or states, and the probability to move from one state to another has been calculated for both observations and a simulation from a GCM. This could be useful for understanding and diagnosing general circulation models elucidating the mechanisms that govern ENSO in models. Furthermore, these matrices have been used to define a predictability index of ENSO based on the entropy concept introduced by Shannon. The index correctly identifies the emergence of the spring predictability barrier and the seasonal variations of the transition probabilities. The transition probability matrices could also be used to formulate a basic prediction model for ENSO that was tested here on a case study.
Appears in Collections:Papers Published / Papers in press

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat 
jcli-d-16-0490.1.pdf1.2 MBAdobe PDFView/Open
Show full item record

Page view(s)

8
Last Week
0
Last month
checked on May 27, 2019

Download(s)

2
checked on May 27, 2019

Google ScholarTM

Check

Altmetric