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Authors: Peruzza, Laura* 
Azzaro, Raffaele* 
Gee, Robin* 
D'Amico, Salvatore* 
Langer, Horst* 
Lombardo, Giuseppe* 
Pace, Bruno* 
Pagani, Marco* 
Panzera, Francesco* 
Ordaz, Mario* 
Suarez, Miguel Leonardo* 
Tusa, Giuseppina* 
Title: When probabilistic seismic hazard climbs volcanoes: the Mt. Etna case, Italy – Part 2: Computational implementation and first results
Journal: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 
Series/Report no.: /17(2017)
Issue Date: 2017
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-17-1999-2017
Keywords: Mt. Etna, Seismic Hazard, GMPE
Subject Classification04.06. Seismology
Abstract: This paper describes the model implementation and presents results of a probabilistic seismic hazard assess- ment (PSHA) for the Mt. Etna volcanic region in Sicily, Italy, considering local volcano-tectonic earthquakes. Working in a volcanic region presents new challenges not typically faced in standard PSHA, which are broadly due to the nature of the local volcano-tectonic earthquakes, the cone shape of the volcano and the attenuation properties of seismic waves in the volcanic region. These have been accounted for through the development of a seismic source model that integrates data from different disciplines (historical and instrumental earthquake datasets, tectonic data, etc.; presented in Part 1, by Azzaro et al., 2017) and through the development and software implementation of original tools for the computa- tion, such as a new ground-motion prediction equation and magnitude–scaling relationship specifically derived for this volcanic area, and the capability to account for the surfi- cial topography in the hazard calculation, which influences source-to-site distances. Hazard calculations have been car- ried out after updating the most recent releases of two widely used PSHA software packages (CRISIS, as in Ordaz et al., 2013; the OpenQuake engine, as in Pagani et al., 2014). Re- sults are computed for short- to mid-term exposure times (10% probability of exceedance in 5 and 30 years, Poisson and time dependent) and spectral amplitudes of engineer- ing interest. A preliminary exploration of the impact of site- specific response is also presented for the densely inhabited Etna’s eastern flank, and the change in expected ground mo- tion is finally commented on. These results do not account for M > 6 regional seismogenic sources which control the hazard at long return periods. However, by focusing on the impact of M < 6 local volcano-tectonic earthquakes, which dominate the hazard at the short- to mid-term exposure times considered in this study, we present a different viewpoint that, in our opinion, is relevant for retrofitting the existing buildings and for driving impending interventions of risk re- duction.
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