Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/11688
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dc.date.accessioned2018-04-10T13:00:49Z-
dc.date.available2018-04-10T13:00:49Z-
dc.date.issued2017-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2122/11688-
dc.description.abstractThis study presents a new method for producing long-term hazard maps for pyroclastic density currents (PDC) originating at Campi Flegrei caldera. Such method is based on a doubly stochastic approach and is able to combine the uncertainty assessments on the spatial location of the volcanic vent, the size of the flow and the expected time of such an event. The results are obtained by using a Monte Carlo approach and adopting a simplified invasion model based on the box model integral approximation. Temporal assessments are modeled through a Cox-type process including self-excitement effects, based on the eruptive record of the last 15 kyr. Mean and percentile maps of PDC invasion probability are produced, exploring their sensitivity to some sources of uncertainty and to the effects of the dependence between PDC scales and the caldera sector where they originated. Conditional maps representative of PDC originating inside limited zones of the caldera, or of PDC with a limited range of scales are also produced. Finally, the effect of assuming different time windows for the hazard estimates is explored, also including the potential occurrence of a sequence of multiple events. Assuming that the last eruption of Monte Nuovo (A.D. 1538) marked the beginning of a new epoch of activity similar to the previous ones, results of the statistical analysis indicate a mean probability of PDC invasion above 5% in the next 50 years on almost the entire caldera (with a probability peak of 25% in the central part of the caldera). In contrast, probability values reduce by a factor of about 3 if the entire eruptive record is considered over the last 15 kyr, i.e., including both eruptive epochs and quiescent periods.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.relation.ispartofFrontiers in Earth Scienceen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseries/5 (2017)en_US
dc.titleThe Effects of Vent Location, Event Scale, and Time Forecasts on Pyroclastic Density Current Hazard Maps at Campi Flegrei Caldera (Italy)en_US
dc.typearticle-
dc.description.statusPublisheden_US
dc.description.pagenumberArticle 72en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.3389/feart.2017.00072en_US
dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischioen_US
dc.description.journalTypeJCR Journalen_US
dc.contributor.authorBevilacqua, Andrea-
dc.contributor.authorNeri, Augusto-
dc.contributor.authorBisson, Marina-
dc.contributor.authorEsposti Ongaro, Tomaso-
dc.contributor.authorFlandoli, Franco-
dc.contributor.authorIsaia, Roberto-
dc.contributor.authorRosi, Mauro-
dc.contributor.authorVitale, Stefano-
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italiaen_US
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italiaen_US
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italiaen_US
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italiaen_US
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione OV, Napoli, Italiaen_US
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione OV, Napoli, Italiaen_US
item.grantfulltextopen-
item.fulltextWith Fulltext-
crisitem.author.deptIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia-
crisitem.author.deptIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione OV, Napoli, Italia-
crisitem.author.deptIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia-
crisitem.author.deptIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia-
crisitem.author.deptIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione OV, Napoli, Italia-
crisitem.author.deptIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia-
crisitem.author.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.author.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.author.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.author.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.author.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.author.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
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