Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/11363
DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.date.accessioned2018-03-21T10:14:49Zen
dc.date.available2018-03-21T10:14:49Zen
dc.date.issued2018en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2122/11363en
dc.descriptionThis article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal Internationa ©: 2018 Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.en
dc.description.abstractn this paper, we put forward a procedure that aims to forecast focal mechanism of future earthquakes. One of the primary uses of such forecasts is in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA); in fact, aiming at reducing the epistemic uncertainty, most of the newer ground motion prediction equations consider, besides the seismicity rates, the forecast of the focal mechanism of the next large earthquakes as input data. The data set used to this purpose is relative to focal mechanisms taken from the latest stress map release for Italy containing 392 well-constrained solutions of events, from 1908 to 2015, with Mw ≥ 4 and depths from 0 down to 40 km. The data set considers polarity focal mechanism solutions until to 1975 (23 events), whereas for 1976-2015, it takes into account only the Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT)-like earthquake focal solutions for data homogeneity. The forecasting model is rooted in the Total Weighted Moment Tensor concept that weighs information of past focal mechanisms evenly distributed in space, according to their distance from the spatial cells and magnitude. Specifically, for each cell of a regular 0.1° × 0.1° spatial grid, the model estimates the probability to observe a normal, reverse, or strike-slip fault plane solution for the next large earthquakes, the expected moment tensor and the related maximum horizontal stress orientation. These results will be available for the new PSHA model for Italy under development. Finally, to evaluate the reliability of the forecasts, we test them with an independent data set that consists of some of the strongest earthquakes with Mw ≥ 3.9 occurred during 2016 in different Italian tectonic provinces. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Royal Astronomical Society.en
dc.language.isoEnglishen
dc.relation.ispartofGeophysical Journal Internationalen
dc.relation.ispartofseries/212 (2018)en
dc.titleEarthquake focal mechanism forecasting in Italy for PSHA purposesen
dc.typearticleen
dc.description.statusPublisheden
dc.type.QualityControlPeer-revieweden
dc.description.pagenumber491–508en
dc.identifier.doi10.1093/gji/ggx383en
dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico3T. Sorgente sismicaen
dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremotoen
dc.description.journalTypeJCR Journalen
dc.contributor.authorRoselli, Pamelaen
dc.contributor.authorMarzocchi, Warneren
dc.contributor.authorMariucci, Maria Teresaen
dc.contributor.authorMontone, Paolaen
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italiaen
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italiaen
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italiaen
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italiaen
item.openairetypearticle-
item.cerifentitytypePublications-
item.languageiso639-1en-
item.grantfulltextopen-
item.openairecristypehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf-
item.fulltextWith Fulltext-
crisitem.author.deptIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia-
crisitem.author.deptIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia-
crisitem.author.deptIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia-
crisitem.author.orcid0000-0003-3844-5059-
crisitem.author.orcid0000-0002-9114-1516-
crisitem.author.orcid0000-0001-6029-1514-
crisitem.author.orcid0000-0002-9297-1730-
crisitem.author.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.author.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.author.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.department.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.department.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.department.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.department.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
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