Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/11363
Authors: Roselli, Pamela* 
Marzocchi, Warner* 
Mariucci, Maria Teresa* 
Montone, Paola* 
Title: Earthquake focal mechanism forecasting in Italy for PSHA purposes
Issue Date: 2018
Series/Report no.: /212 (2018)
DOI: 10.1093/gji/ggx383
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/11363
Abstract: n this paper, we put forward a procedure that aims to forecast focal mechanism of future earthquakes. One of the primary uses of such forecasts is in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA); in fact, aiming at reducing the epistemic uncertainty, most of the newer ground motion prediction equations consider, besides the seismicity rates, the forecast of the focal mechanism of the next large earthquakes as input data. The data set used to this purpose is relative to focal mechanisms taken from the latest stress map release for Italy containing 392 well-constrained solutions of events, from 1908 to 2015, with Mw ≥ 4 and depths from 0 down to 40 km. The data set considers polarity focal mechanism solutions until to 1975 (23 events), whereas for 1976-2015, it takes into account only the Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT)-like earthquake focal solutions for data homogeneity. The forecasting model is rooted in the Total Weighted Moment Tensor concept that weighs information of past focal mechanisms evenly distributed in space, according to their distance from the spatial cells and magnitude. Specifically, for each cell of a regular 0.1° × 0.1° spatial grid, the model estimates the probability to observe a normal, reverse, or strike-slip fault plane solution for the next large earthquakes, the expected moment tensor and the related maximum horizontal stress orientation. These results will be available for the new PSHA model for Italy under development. Finally, to evaluate the reliability of the forecasts, we test them with an independent data set that consists of some of the strongest earthquakes with Mw ≥ 3.9 occurred during 2016 in different Italian tectonic provinces. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Royal Astronomical Society.
Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal Internationa ©: 2018 Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.
Appears in Collections:Papers Published / Papers in press

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat 
ggx383(1).pdf7.29 MBAdobe PDFView/Open
Show full item record

Page view(s)

24
Last Week
0
Last month
2
checked on May 27, 2019

Download(s)

43
checked on May 27, 2019

Google ScholarTM

Check

Altmetric