Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/2122/1118
DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.authorall | Lombardi, A. M.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Akinci, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Malagnini, L.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Mueller, C. S.; U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, CO, U.S.A. | en |
dc.date.accessioned | 2006-04-20T11:03:00Z | en |
dc.date.available | 2006-04-20T11:03:00Z | en |
dc.date.issued | 2005-12 | en |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2122/1118 | en |
dc.description.abstract | In this study we examine uncertainty and parametric sensitivity of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and 1-Hz Spectral Acceleration (1-Hz SA) in probabilistic seismic hazard maps (10% probability of exceedance in 50 years) of Northern and Central Italy. The uncertainty in hazard is estimated using a Monte Carlo approach to randomly sample a logic tree that has three input-variables branch points representing alternative values for bvalue, maximum magnitude (Mmax) and attenuation relationships. Uncertainty is expressed in terms of 95% confidence band and Coefficient Of Variation (COV). The overall variability of ground motions and their sensitivity to each parameter of the logic tree are investigated. The largest values of the overall 95% confidence band are around 0.15 g for PGA in the Friuli and Northern Apennines regions and around 0.35 g for 1-Hz SA in the Central Apennines. The sensitivity analysis shows that the largest contributor to seismic hazard variability is uncertainty in the choice of ground-motion attenuation relationships, especially in the Friuli Region (∼0.10 g) for PGA and in the Friuli and Central Apennines regions (∼0.15 g) for 1-Hz SA. This is followed by the variability of the b-value: its main contribution is evident in the Friuli and Central Apennines regions for both 1-Hz SA (∼0.15 g) and PGA (∼0.10 g). We observe that the contribution of Mmax to seismic hazard variability is negligible, at least for 10% exceedance in 50-years hazard. The overall COV map for PGA shows that the uncertainty in the hazard is larger in the Friuli and Northern Apennine regions, around 20-30%, than the Central Apennines and Northwestern Italy, around 10-20%. The overall uncertainty is larger for the 1-Hz SA map and reaches 50- 60% in the Central Apennines and Western Alps. | en |
dc.format.extent | 4778301 bytes | en |
dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | en |
dc.language.iso | English | en |
dc.relation.ispartof | Annals of Geophysics | en |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | 6/48 (2005) | en |
dc.subject | seismic hazard | en |
dc.subject | uncertainty analysis | en |
dc.subject | Italy | en |
dc.title | Uncertainty analysis for seismic hazard in Northern and Central Italy | en |
dc.type | article | en |
dc.type.QualityControl | Peer-reviewed | en |
dc.subject.INGV | 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk | en |
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PERKINS (1993): Treatment of parameter uncertainty and variability for a single seismic hazard map, Earthquake Spectra, 9, 165-195. BUILDING SEISMIC SAFETY COUNCIL (1997): NEHRP Recommended Provision for Seismic Regulations for New Buildings and Other Structures (Washington, D.C.). CAMASSI, R., P. ALBINI, V. CASTELLI, C. MIRTO, D. MOLIN and M. STUCCHI (2002): Valutazioni di completezza dei dati di intensità: alcuni risultati di un approccio di tipo storico, in XXXI Convegno Nazionale del Gruppo Nazionale di Geofisica della Terra Solida, 19-21 November 2002, Roma (Italy), Riassunti, 122-124. CONSOLE, R. and M. MURRU (2001): A simple and testable model for earthquake clustering, J. Geophys. Res., 106 (B5), 8699-8711. CRAMER, C.H. (2001): A seismic hazard uncertainty analysis for the New Madrid seismic zone, Eng. Geol., 62, 251-266. CRAMER, C.H., M.D. PETERSEN and M.S. REICHLE (1996): A Monte Carlo approach in estimating uncertainty for a seismic hazard assessment of Los Angeles, Ventura and Orange Counties, California, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 86 (6), 1681-1691. CRAMER, C.H., R.L. WHEELER and C.S. MUELLER (2002): Uncertainty analysis for seismic hazard in the Southern Illinois Basin, Seismol. Res. Lett., 73 (5), 792-805. FRANKEL, A. (1995): Mapping seismic hazard in the Central and Eastern United States, Seismol. Res. Lett., 66 (4), 8-21. GRUPPO DI LAVORO CPTI (1999): Catalogo Parametrico dei Terremoti Italiani (ING, GNDT, SGA, SSN), (Ed. Compositori, Bologna), pp. 92. GUTENBERG, B. and C.F. RICHTER (1949): Seismicity of the Earth and Associated Phenomena (Princeton University Press, Princeton). MALAGNINI, L., R.B. HERRMANN and M. DI BONA (2000): Ground-motion scaling in the Apennines (Italy), Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 90, 1062-1081. MALAGNINI, L., A. AKINCI, R.B. HERRMANN, N.A. PINO and L. 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TOPPOZADA (1996): Preliminary seismic hazard assessment for Los Angeles, Ventura and Orange Counties, California, effected by the January 17 1994 Northridge earthquake, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 86, S247-S261. REITER, L. (1990): Earthquake Hazard Analysis: Issues and Insights (Columbia University, New York), pp. 253. ROMEO, A., A. PACIELLO and D. RINALDIS (2000): Seismic hazard maps of Italy including site effects, Soil Dyn. Earthquake Eng., 20, 85-92. SABETTA, F. and A. PUGLIESE (1996): Estimation of response spectra and simulation of nonstationary earthquake ground-motions, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 86 (2), 337-352. SLEIKO, D., L. PERUZZA and A. REBEZ (1998): Seismic hazard maps of Italy, Ann. Geofis., 41 (2), 183-214. WONG, I.G. and S.S. OLIG (1998): Seismic hazards in the basin and range province: perspectives from probabilistic analyses, in Western States Seismic Policy Council Proceedings, Basin and Range Province Seismic Hazards Summit, edited by W.R. LUND, Utah Geol. Surv. Misc. Publ. 98-2, 110-127. WORKING GROUP (2004): Redazione della Mappa di Pericolosità Sismica Prevista dall’Ordinanza PCM 3274 del 20 Marzo 2003 (on line: http://zonesismiche.mi.ingv. it/ documenti/rapporto_conclusivo.pdf). YOUNGS, R.R., F.H. SWAN, M.S. POWER, D.P. SCWARTZ and R.K. GREEN (1987): Probabilistic analysis of earthquake ground shaking hazard along the Wasatch Front, Utah, in Assessment of Regional Earthquake Hazard and Risk along the Wasatch Front, Utah, edited by P.L. GOR and W.W. HAYS, U.S. Geol. Surv. Open-File Rep. 87-585, vol. 2, M1-M110. | en |
dc.description.journalType | JCR Journal | en |
dc.description.fulltext | open | en |
dc.contributor.author | Lombardi, A. M. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Akinci, A. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Malagnini, L. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Mueller, C. S. | en |
dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
dc.contributor.department | U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, CO, U.S.A. | en |
item.openairetype | article | - |
item.cerifentitytype | Publications | - |
item.languageiso639-1 | en | - |
item.grantfulltext | open | - |
item.openairecristype | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf | - |
item.fulltext | With Fulltext | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | - |
crisitem.author.dept | U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, CO, U.S.A. | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-8326-7135 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0001-8073-3420 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0001-5809-9945 | - |
crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.classification.parent | 04. Solid Earth | - |
crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
Appears in Collections: | Annals of Geophysics Article published / in press Manuscripts |
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