Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/10952
Authors: Murphy, S.* 
Scala, A* 
Herrero, André* 
Lorito, Stefano* 
Festa, G.* 
Trasatti, Elisa* 
Tonini, Roberto* 
Romano, Fabrizio* 
Molinari, Irene* 
Nielsen, S.* 
Title: Shallow slip amplification and enhanced tsunami hazard unravelled by dynamic simulations of mega-thrust earthquakes
Issue Date: 11-Oct-2016
Series/Report no.: /6 (2016)
DOI: 10.1038/srep35007
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/10952
Abstract: The 2011 Tohoku earthquake produced an unexpected large amount of shallow slip greatly contributing to the ensuing tsunami. How frequent are such events? How can they be efficiently modelled for tsunami hazard? Stochastic slip models, which can be computed rapidly, are used to explore the natural slip variability; however, they generally do not deal specifically with shallow slip features. We study the systematic depth-dependence of slip along a thrust fault with a number of 2D dynamic simulations using stochastic shear stress distributions and a geometry based on the cross section of the Tohoku fault. We obtain a probability density for the slip distribution, which varies both with depth, earthquake size and whether the rupture breaks the surface. We propose a method to modify stochastic slip distributions according to this dynamically-derived probability distribution. This method may be efficiently applied to produce large numbers of heterogeneous slip distributions for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis. Using numerous M9 earthquake scenarios, we demonstrate that incorporating the dynamically-derived probability distribution does enhance the conditional probability of exceedance of maximum estimated tsunami wave heights along the Japanese coast. This technique for integrating dynamic features in stochastic models can be extended to any subduction zone and faulting style.
Appears in Collections:Papers Published / Papers in press

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat 
2016-SCIREP-shallow_slip_tsunami_hazard.pdfmain article3.47 MBAdobe PDFView/Open
2016-SCIREP-shallow_slip_tsunami_hazard-supp.pdfsupplementary material9.14 MBAdobe PDFView/Open
Show full item record

Page view(s)

13
Last Week
0
Last month
0
checked on Sep 23, 2018

Download(s)

8
checked on Sep 23, 2018

Google ScholarTM

Check

Altmetric