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A Unified Probabilistic Framework for Seismic Hazard Analysis
Language
English
Obiettivo Specifico
Status
Published
JCR Journal
JCR Journal
Peer review journal
Yes
Title of the book
Issue/vol(year)
/107 (2017)
Pages (printed)
2738 – 2744
Issued date
2017
Abstract
The proper scientific interpretation of the seismic hazard estimates requires a probabilistic framework that admits epistemic uncertainties on aleatory variables. This is not straightforward because, to subjectivists, all probabilities are epistemic, whereas to frequentists, all probabilities are aleatory. We illustrate the inadequacy of purely subjectivist and purely frequentist interpretations of probability by examining the probabilistic meaning of the mean hazard. We advocate a unified approach based on experimental concepts that define aleatory variability in terms of exchangeable sequences of observations, and we show how experimental concepts allow testing of models based on expert opinion by frequentist methods.
Type
article
File(s)
No Thumbnail Available
Name
BSSA_Marzocchi_Jordan_2017.pdf
Size
284.4 KB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
46a6b52513d09a069d2a883dd67ce29f