Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/10708
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dc.date.accessioned2018-02-16T07:30:14Zen
dc.date.available2018-02-16T07:30:14Zen
dc.date.issued2016-04en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2122/10708en
dc.description.abstractWe forecast time-independent and time-dependent earthquake ruptures in the Marmara region of Turkey for the next 30 years using a new fault segmentation model. We also augment time-dependent Brownian passage time (BPT) probability with static Coulomb stress changes (ΔCFF) from interacting faults. We calculate Mw > 6.5 probability from 26 individual fault sources in the Marmara region. We also consider a multisegment rupture model that allows higher-magnitude ruptures over some segments of the northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone beneath the Marmara Sea. A total of 10 different Mw = 7.0 to Mw = 8.0 multisegment ruptures are combined with the other regional faults at rates that balance the overall moment accumulation. We use Gaussian random distributions to treat parameter uncertainties (e.g., aperiodicity, maximum expected magnitude, slip rate, and consequently mean recurrence time) of the statistical distributions associated with each fault source. We then estimate uncertainties of the 30 year probability values for the next characteristic event obtained from three different models (Poisson, BPT, and BPT + ΔCFF) using a Monte Carlo procedure. The Gerede fault segment located at the eastern end of the Marmara region shows the highest 30 year probability, with a Poisson value of 29% and a time-dependent interaction probability of 48%. We find an aggregated 30 year Poisson probability of M > 7.3 earthquakes at Istanbul of 35%, which increases to 47% if time dependence and stress transfer are considered. We calculate a twofold probability gain (ratio time dependent to time independent) on the southern strands of the North Anatolian Fault Zone.en
dc.language.isoEnglishen
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earthen
dc.relation.ispartofseries4/121(2016)en
dc.subjectstress interactionen
dc.subjectMarmara regionen
dc.subjectrupture forecasten
dc.subjecttime-dependent and time-independent probabilityen
dc.titleM ≥ 7 earthquake rupture forecast and time-dependent probability for the sea of Marmara region, Turkeyen
dc.typearticleen
dc.description.statusPublisheden
dc.type.QualityControlPeer-revieweden
dc.description.pagenumber2679–2707en
dc.identifier.URLhttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015JB012595/fullen
dc.subject.INGV04.06. Seismologyen
dc.subject.INGV05.08. Risken
dc.subject.INGV04.07. Tectonophysicsen
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/2015JB012595en
dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico5T. Modelli di pericolosità sismica e da maremotoen
dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico6T. Variazioni delle caratteristiche crostali e precursorien
dc.description.journalTypeJCR Journalen
dc.contributor.authorMurru, Mauraen
dc.contributor.authorAkinci, Aybigeen
dc.contributor.authorFalcone, Giuseppeen
dc.contributor.authorPucci, Stefanoen
dc.contributor.authorConsole, Rodolfoen
dc.contributor.authorParsons, T.en
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italiaen
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italiaen
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italiaen
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italiaen
dc.contributor.departmentCenter of Integrated Geomorphology for the MediterraneanArea, Potenza, Italyen
dc.contributor.departmentU.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California, USAen
item.grantfulltextrestricted-
item.fulltextWith Fulltext-
item.openairecristypehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf-
item.openairetypearticle-
item.languageiso639-1en-
item.cerifentitytypePublications-
crisitem.author.deptIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia-
crisitem.author.deptIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia-
crisitem.author.deptIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia-
crisitem.author.deptIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia-
crisitem.author.deptIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia-
crisitem.author.deptU.S. Geological Survey, MS-999, 345 Middlefield Rd, Menlo Park, CA 94025, USA-
crisitem.author.orcid0000-0002-7385-394X-
crisitem.author.orcid0000-0001-8073-3420-
crisitem.author.orcid0000-0002-2554-4421-
crisitem.author.orcid0000-0002-3557-2936-
crisitem.author.orcid0000-0002-0582-4338-
crisitem.author.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.author.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.author.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.author.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.author.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.classification.parent04. Solid Earth-
crisitem.classification.parent05. General-
crisitem.classification.parent04. Solid Earth-
crisitem.department.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.department.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.department.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.department.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
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