Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/2122/10617
DC Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.date.accessioned | 2017-10-11T08:46:47Z | en |
dc.date.available | 2017-10-11T08:46:47Z | en |
dc.date.issued | 2017 | en |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2122/10617 | en |
dc.description.abstract | Stochastic models provide quantitative evaluations about the occurrence of earthquakes. A basic component of this type of models are the uncertainties in defining main features of an intrinsically random process. Even if, at a very basic level, any attempting to distinguish between types of uncertainty is questionable, an usual way to deal with this topic is to separate epistemic uncertainty, due to lack of knowledge, from aleatory variability, due to randomness. In the present study this problem is addressed in the narrow context of short-term modeling of earthquakes and, specifically, of ETAS modeling. By mean of an application of a specific version of the ETAS model to seismicity of Central Italy, recently struck by a sequence with a main event of Mw6.5, the aleatory and epistemic (parametric) uncertainty are separated and quantified. The main result of the paper is that the parametric uncertainty of the ETAS-type model, adopted here, is much lower than the aleatory variability in the process. This result points out two main aspects: an analyst has good chances to set the ETAS-type models, but he may retrospectively describe and forecast the earthquake occurrences with still limited precision and accuracy. | en |
dc.description.sponsorship | Civil Protection Department | en |
dc.language.iso | English | en |
dc.relation.ispartof | Scientific Reports | en |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | /7(2017) | en |
dc.subject | Seismic hazard | en |
dc.subject | Statistical seismology | en |
dc.title | The epistemic and aleatory uncertainties of the ETAS-type models: an application to the Central Italy seismicity | en |
dc.type | article | en |
dc.description.status | Published | en |
dc.type.QualityControl | Peer-reviewed | en |
dc.description.pagenumber | 11812 | en |
dc.subject.INGV | 04.06. Seismology | en |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1038/s41598-017-11925-3 | en |
dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico | 5T. Modelli di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto | en |
dc.description.journalType | JCR Journal | en |
dc.contributor.author | Lombardi, Anna Maria | en |
dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
item.openairetype | article | - |
item.cerifentitytype | Publications | - |
item.languageiso639-1 | en | - |
item.grantfulltext | restricted | - |
item.openairecristype | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf | - |
item.fulltext | With Fulltext | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-8326-7135 | - |
crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.classification.parent | 04. Solid Earth | - |
crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
Appears in Collections: | Article published / in press |
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s41598-017-11925-3.pdf | 2.1 MB | Adobe PDF |
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