Terremoti: tra percezione e realtà

Abstract

Today, in Italy, studies on perception of seismic risk are quite rare and even more rarely results are known and considered to support risk analysis and improve communication. In our opinion this problem mainly arises from two reasons: an inadequate integration between social science and science that ‘traditionally’ are involved in earthquake studies such as physics, seismology, geology and engineering; an intrinsic difficulty of social science to relate with other disciplines, adopting shared language, methods and techniques. In our paper, the main approaches used in risk perception studies are discussed. Furthermore, we describe the method used to compare the data on the perception of seismic risk in Italy (over 8,500 questionnaires collected) with the factors that determine the risk in seismology: the level of seismic hazard (hazard); the number of people and the amount of assets that are exposed to the risk of earthquake (exposure); as these people and these assets are vulnerable to seismic risk (vulnerability). Our results highlight that in seismic zone 1 (the most dangerous area, where is high the probability that a major earthquake occurs) 8 out of 10 Italians do not have adequate risk perception. These results are consistent with other studies conducted immediately after the L’Aquila earthquake of April 6, 2009 (Marincioni et al. Earthquake Spectra, Volume 28, No. 1, pages 159-183, February 2012). For these reasons we believe that, in Italy, carry out information and education initiatives it is an urgent need, in order to finally give birth to a population more informed and aware of the risks of the territory in which it lives.