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Authors: Cappello, A.* 
Zanon, V.* 
Del Negro, C.* 
Ferreira, T.* 
Queiroz, M.* 
Title: Exploring lava-flow hazards at Pico Island, Azores Archipelago (Portugal)
Journal: Terra Nova 
Series/Report no.: /27 (2015)
Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell
Issue Date: 6-Mar-2015
DOI: 10.1111/ter.12143
Keywords: lava flow hazard
Subject Classification05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions 
Abstract: Pico, the youngest island of the Azores Archipelago (Portugal), is characterized by a central volcano and a 30-km-long fissure zone. Its eruption rate is the highest of the Azores islands, with more than 35 eruptions in the last 2000 years. Here, we estimate the lava-flow hazard for Pico Island by combining the vent opening probability derived from the spatial distribution of eruptive fissures, the classes of expected eruptions inferred from the physical and chemical characteristics of historical eruptions, and the lava-flow paths simulated by the MAGFLOW model. The most likely area to host new eruptions is along a WNW–ESE trend centred on the central volcano, with the highest hazard affecting the two main residential zones of Lajes do Pico and Madalena. Our analysis is the first attempt to assess the lava-flow hazard for Pico Island, and may have important implications for decision-making in territorial management and future land-use planning.
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