On the reliability of the Spatial Scintillation Index to detect earthquake precursors in the ionosphere

Abstract

The scientific literature includes many reports of ionospheric phenomena that are retrospectively identified prior to seismic events. These disturbances of the Earth’s ionosphere are considered to be possible precursors of the impending earthquakes. However, a causal relationship between ionospheric phenomena and earthquakes has never been definitively demonstrated and attempts at identifying precursory effects in the ionosphere have been called into question by several studies [see, e.g., Masci and Thomas, 2014; Masci et al., 2014]. Among the candidate indicators of ionospheric precursors there is the Spatial Scintillation Index (SSI) proposed by Pulinets et al. [2007]. The usefulness of this index in the search for precursory effects of earthquakes has been criticized by Thomas et al. [2012] and Masci [2013]. In a recent report, Pulinets and Davidenko [2014] attempt to briefly respond to the remarks of these researchers. Here we cast doubt that Pulinets and Davidenko [2014] have shown that SSI is a reliable indicator of precursory effects of earthquakes in the ionosphere.