Sea level rise scenario for 2100 A.D. for the archaeological site of Motya

In this study, we analyze the impact of the sea level rise induced by climate change on the coastal cultural heritage site of
Motya, the Phoenician colony (IV–III millennium B.P.) located in the San Pantaleo island, NW corner of Sicily (southern
Italy). In particular, we assessed the effects of this phenomenon on the human settlement in the past 2400 years and the
expected sea level rise scenario for the next decades. A detailed flooding scenario for 2100 from direct observations and
two models, taking into account the contribution of Vertical Land Movements (VLM), is provided. The surface topography
is derived from a novel high-resolution/high-accuracy digital surface model (DSM), which was performed through an
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) survey, whereas the rate of VLM was estimated by the analysis of geodetic data at three
Continuous Global Positioning System (CGPS) stations located close to the island. To estimate the local mean sea level and
to correct the tide level (TL) at the epoch of UAV survey, the hydrometric recordings of the nearest sea level gauge station
located at Porto Empedocle (Sicily), were used. Two flooding scenarios for 2100 were then represented on the high-resolution
DSM, using the regional sea-level projections of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the Mediterranean
region. According to the RCP 8.5 climatic model, a difference of about + 59 cm above the local mean sea level between the
current and the expected coastline positions at 2100 A.D., was found. In addition, by adding the average half amplitude of
the daily tide, equal to about 30 cm, a maximum flooding scenario was determined. Finally, in the maximum condition of
sea level rise, a significant flooding on the archaeological structures is expected for the Kothon area and along the North-
West coast of the island.

This study has been partially supported by the 2011–2013 MIUR-PRIN
(Project: Response of morphoclimatic system dynamics to global
changes and related geomorphologic hazard) and under the umbrella
of the SAVEMEDCOASTS Project, funded by the EU (Agreement
Number: ECHO/SUB/2016/742473/PREV16).

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