A major seismogenic fault in a 'silent area': the Castrovillari fault

Large historical earthquakes in Italy define a prominent gap in the Pollino region of the southern Apennines, Geomorphic and palaeoseismological investigations in this region show that the Castrovillari fault (CF) is a major seismogenic source that could potentially fill the southern part of this gap. The surface expression of the CF is a complex, 10-13 km long set of prominent scarps. Trenches across one scarp indicate that at least four surface-faulting earthquakes have occurred along the CF since Late Pleistocene time, each producing at least Im of vertical displacement. The length of the fault and the slip per event suggest M=6.5-7.0 for the palaeoearthquakes, Preliminary radiocarbon dating coupled with historical considerations imply that the most recent of these earthquakes occurred between 380 BC and 1200 AD, and probably soon after 760 AD; no evidence for this event has been found in the historical record. We estimate a minimum recurrence interval of 1170 years and a vertical slip rate of 0.2-0.5 mm yr(-1) for the CF, which indicates that the seismic behaviour of this fault is comparable to other major seismogenic faults of the central-southern Apennines, The lack of mention or the mislocation of the most recent event in the historical seismic memory of the Pollino region clearly shows that even in Italy, which has one of the longest historical records of seismicity, a seismic hazard assessment based solely on the historical record may not be completely reliable, and shows that geological investigations are critical for filling possible information gaps.