Glacial isostatic adjustment in the northern adriatic region: estimates of the contribution from the Alpine ice sheet

The present-day sea-level variations and vertical movements in the northern Adriatic Sea and in the highly vulnerable Venetian Lagoon result from a number of simultaneously operating contributions. These include Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA), the global, long-term process arising from interactions between the cryosphere, the solid Earth and the oceans in response to the melting of continental ice sheets. Although the GIA contribution in northern Adriatic Sea has been the subject of various investigations so far, significant uncertainties still exist, especially related to the extent and chronology of the Würm Alpine ice sheet and to the rheological profile of the mantle. Here, taking advantage of the recent publication of updated deglaciation chronologies for the far field late-Pleistocene ice sheets and for the near-field alpine ice complex, we produce up-to-date estimates of the present-day rates of GIA-induced relative sea-level variations and vertical displacements in the Venetian Lagoon and in the northern Adriatic Sea, which are compared with GNSS and tide-gauge observations. From high-resolution numerical simulations, we find that GIA is responsible for a complex pattern of geodetic signals across the Po plain and the northern Adriatic Sea. The modeled GIA rates are of the order of fractions of mm yr−1, generally small – but not negligible – compared to the signals observed at local tide gauges and at GNSS sites in the Po plain and facing the Venetian Lagoon. Our results indicate that, while GIA represents a relatively small component among those responsible for present-day land movements and relative sea-level variations in the northern Adriatic Sea, its contribution needs to be taken into account for a correct interpretation of the observed geodetic variations.