Prediction of Ground Motion and Loss Scenarios for Selected Infrastructues Systems in European Urban Environments

LessLoss - Risk Mitigation for Earthquakes and Landslides, SP11 "Earthquake disaster scenario predictions and loss modelling for infrastructures" (coord. E.Faccioli). EC Project -Sixth Framework Programme. Priority 1.1.6.3 - Global Change and Ecosystems, Project No.:GOCE-CT-2003-505488.

computational tools needed for developing scenarios of earthquake ground motions and
of ensuing damage to representative urban Infrastructure Systems (IS), as well as with
illustrative examples of application to cities in Europe and neighbouring countries. The
material illustrated is the outcome of the work carried out in LESSLOSS Sub-Project
SP11, devoted to the title subject. Of main concern are the water and natural gas
distribution networks and the sewage networks, because these are, with the transportation
network, by far the most extensive IS in cities and, especially the first one, often the most
vulnerable. Also, emphasis is placed more on the tools for achieving a scenario and on
their application, rather than on the economic loss evaluation. As a partial justification of
the belated development and interest in seismic IS damage, it is recalled that destructive
earthquakes of recent decades in Europe did not cause large scale damage to IS.
In addition to describing tools for the practical construction of damage scenarios for IS,
the report also highlights some innovative research trends in the field, especially the
methods leading to the estimation of pipeline damage on the basis of the peak ground
strains generated by the propagation of seismic waves, which in turn needs the support of
advanced 2D or 3D wave propagation modelling.
The main sections of the report are devoted to:
- Calculation of seismic ground motions in an area, both of advanced and
simplified engineering level, with applications for Thessaloniki and Düzce (Sect
2);
- Outline of the buried pipelines response during earthquakes, illustrating the chief
elements at play on the side of the seismic loading effects and typical damage
(Sect. 3);
- Vulnerability representations for IS components, mostly those consisting of
buried pipelines (Sect. 4);
- Typical features of IS inventories, with examples (Sect 5);
- Damage evaluation tools at urban scenario and single pipeline level (Sect. 6);
- Damage scenario applications for Thessaloniki and Düzce (Sect 7);
- Conclusions.