Relationship between accelerating seismicity and quiescence, two precursors to large earthquakes

The Non-Critical Precursory Accelerating Seismicity
Theory (PAST) has been proposed recently to explain the
formation of accelerating seismicity (increase of the a-value)
observed before large earthquakes. In particular, it predicts that
precursory accelerating seismicity should occur in the same
spatiotemporal window as quiescence. In this first combined
study we start by determining the spatiotemporal extent of
quiescence observed prior to the 1997Mw= 6Umbria-Marche
earthquake, Italy, using the RTL (Region-Time-Length)
algorithm. We then show that background events located in
that spatiotemporal window form a clear acceleration, as
expected by the Non-Critical PAST. This result is a step forward
in the understanding of precursory seismicity by relating two of
the principal patterns that can precede large earthquakes.

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