Modelling the large earthquakes recurrence times along the North Aegean Trough Fault Zone (Greece) with a physics-based simulator

The recurrence time of large earthquakes above a predefined magnitude threshold on specific
faults or fault segments is one of the key parameters for the development of long-term
Earthquake Rupture Forecast models. Observational data of successive large earthquakes per
fault segment are often limited and thus inadequate for the construction of robust statistical
models. The physics-based earthquake simulators are a powerful tool to overcome recurrence
data limitations by generating long earthquake records. A physics-based simulator, embodying
well known physical processes, is applied in the North Aegean Trough (NAT) Fault Zone
(Greece). The application of the simulation is implemented, after defining a five segment
source model, aiming at the investigation of the recurrence behaviour of earthquakes with Mw
≥6.5 andMw ≥7.0. The detailed examination of the 544Mw ≥6.5 earthquakes included in the
simulated catalogue reveals that both single and multiple segmented ruptures can be realized
along the NAT. Results of statistical analysis of the interevent times ofMw ≥ 6.5 and Mw ≥ 7.0
earthquakes per participating segment to the related ruptures indicate the better performance
of the Brownian Passage Time renewal model in comparison to exponential model. These
results provide evidence for quasi-periodic recurrence behaviour, agreeing with the elastic
rebound theory, instead of Poissonian behaviour.

This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy.
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