Ionospheric Nowcasting Over Italy Through Data Assimilation: A Synergy Between IRI UP and IONORING

An accurate modeling of the ionosphere electron density is pivotal to guarantee the effective
operation of communication and navigation systems, particularly during Space Weather events. Despite the
crucial contribution of empirical models like the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI), their limitations in
predicting ionospheric variability, especially under geomagnetically disturbed conditions, are acknowledged.
The solution proposed in this work involves integrating real‐time, spatially distributed ionospheric
measurements into climatological models through data assimilation. To enhance our predictive capabilities, we
present an upgrade of the IRI UP data‐assimilation method, incorporating real‐time vertical total electron
content (vTEC) maps from the IONORING algorithm for nowcasting ionospheric conditions over Italy. This
approach involves updating the IRI F2‐layer peak electron density description through ionospheric indices, to
finally produce real‐time maps over Italy of the ordinary critical frequency of the F2‐layer, foF2, which is crucial
for radio‐propagation applications. The IRI UP–IONORING method performance has been evaluated against
different climatological and nowcasting models, and under different Space Weather conditions, by showing
promising outcomes which encourages its inclusion in the portfolio of ionospheric real‐time products available
over Italy. The validation analysis highlighted also what are the current limitations of the IRI UP–IONORING
method, particularly during nighttime for severely disturbed conditions, suggesting avenues for future
enhancements.