From weather to ocean predictions: an historical viewpoint

This paper reviews the historical development of concepts and practices in the science of ocean
predictions. It begins with meteorology, which conducted the first forecasting experiment in 1950,
followed by wind waves, and continuing with tidal and storm surge predictions to arrive at the first
successful ocean mesoscale forecast in 1983. The work of Professor A. R. Robinson of Harvard University,
who produced the first mesoscale ocean predictions for the deep ocean regions is documented
for the first time. The scientific and technological developments that made accurate ocean predictions
possible are linked with the gradual understanding of the importance of the oceanic mesoscales and
their inclusion in the numerical models. Ocean forecasting developed first at the regional level, due to
the relatively low computational requirements, but by the end of the 1990s, it was possible to produce
global ocean uncoupled forecasts and coupled ocean-atmosphere seasonal forecasts.