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Romano, Pierdomenico
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Romano, Pierdomenico
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Pierdomenico, Romano
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- PublicationOpen AccessFEEDS: Validation of the Framework for Evaluation of Early Detection Systems(2024-04)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;Monitoring volcanic activity is a complex task, given the intricate nature of volcanic processes and the diverse eruptive styles exhibited by different volcanoes. Early Detection (ED) systems have emerged as indispensable tools for mitigating potential risks associated with volcanic eruptions. The effectiveness of these systems is contingent upon their ability to provide timely and accurate alerts, as false alarms or missed warnings can lead to economic repercussions and pose risks to infrastructure and human safety. Evaluating the reliability of the ED systems may be paramount not only for effective hazard mitigation but also for facilitating the implementation and optimization of an ED model. However, developing an ED model is a challenging and labor-intensive endeavor, also requiring a deep understanding of advanced techniques and a meticulous calibration of various parameters. In response to these challenges, we present the Framework for Evaluation of Early Detection Systems (FEEDS). FEEDS is a comprehensive Python-based package designed to automatically assess the generalization capability of generic ED systems through cross-validation. The framework introduces a generic class representing the ED model identified solely through data, enabling a systematic assessment based on essential predictive parameters, including True Positive Rate, False Discovery Rate, prediction time, and Fraction of Time in Alarm, by performing a simulation. To validate the effectiveness of FEEDS, we utilized tiltmeter and strainmeter data recorded at Stromboli volcano between 2007 and 2019. These datasets, managed by Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia and Università di Firenze, were employed to implement FEEDS with a customized model for the early detection of the paroxysmal activity affecting the volcano during the period of the study, demonstrating the practical applicability and reliability of this framework in real-world volcanic monitoring scenarios. FEEDS may represent a valuable contribution to the ongoing efforts to enhance ED systems and their application in mitigating volcanic hazards. The development of a robust framework that automates the standard evaluation process not only streamlines system implementation but also reduces user efforts and establishes a common ground for assessing the reliability and performance of different ED models, contributing significantly to the advancement of volcanic monitoring capabilities.15 5 - PublicationOpen AccessPropagation of Perturbations in the Lower and Upper Atmosphere over the Central Mediterranean, Driven by the 15 January 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai Volcano Explosion(2023-01)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;; ; ;; ; The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano (Pacific Ocean) generated a cataclysmic explosion on 15 January 2022, triggering several atmospheric disturbances at a global scale, as a huge increase in the total electron content (TEC) in the ionosphere, and a pressure wave travelling in the troposphere. We collected and analysed data over the Mediterranean to study these disturbances, and in particular, (i) data from the barometric and infrasonic stations installed on Italian active volcanoes by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) for investigating the tropospheric pressure waves; (ii) barometric data from the INGV-TROPOMAG and SIAS (Sicilian Agro-meteorological Information System) networks, for investigating the interaction between the orography and pressure waves; (iii) ionograms from the Advanced Ionospheric Sounder-INGV ionosonde at Gibilmanna (Sicily, Italy); (iv) data from the RING (Rete Italiana Integrata GNSS) network, to retrieve the ionospheric TEC; (v) soil CO2 flux data from the INGV surveillance network of Vulcano Island. The analysis of the ground-level barometric data highlights that pressure waves were reflected and diffracted by the topographic surface, creating a complex space–time dynamic of the atmospheric disturbances travelling over Sicily, driven by the interference among the different wavefronts. The ionograms show that a medium-scale travelling ionospheric disturbance (MSTID), with a horizontal wavelength of about 220 km and a period of about 35 min, propagated through the ionospheric plasma in the correspondence of the first barometric variations. Moreover, comparing detrended TEC and barometric data, we further confirmed the presence of the aforementioned MSTID together with its close relation to the tropospheric disturbance.1484 13 - PublicationOpen AccessMulti-parametric study of an eruptive phase comprising unrest, major explosions, crater failure, pyroclastic density currents and lava flows: Stromboli volcano, 1 December 2020–30 June 2021(2022-08-22)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;; ; ; ;; ; ; ;; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; Open conduit volcanoes like Stromboli can display elusive changes in activity before major eruptive events. Starting on December 2020, Stromboli volcano displayed an increasing eruptive activity, that on 19 May 2021 led to a crater-rim collapse, with pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) that spread along the barren NWflank, entered the sea and ran across it for more than 1 km. This episode was followed by lava flow output from the crater rim lasting a few hours, followed by another phase of lava flow in June 2021. These episodes are potentially very dangerous on island volcanoes since a landslide of hot material that turns into a pyroclastic density current and spreads on the sea surface can threaten mariners and coastal communities, as happened at Stromboli on 3 July and 28 August 2019. In addition, on entering the sea, if their volume is large enough, landslides may trigger tsunamis, as occurred at Stromboli on 30 December 2002. In this paper, we present an integration of multidisciplinary monitoring data, including thermal and visible camera images, ground deformation data gathered from GNSS, tilt, strainmeter and GBInSAR, seismicity, SO2 plume and CO2 ground fluxes and thermal data from the ground and satellite imagery, together with petrological analyses of the erupted products compared with samples from previous similar events. We aim at characterizing the preparatory phase of the volcano that began on December 2020 and led to the May–June 2021 eruptive activity, distinguishing this small intrusion of magma from the much greater 2019 eruptive phase, which was fed by gas-rich magma responsible for the paroxysmal explosive and effusive phases of July–August 2019. These complex eruption scenarios have important implications for hazard assessment and the lessons learned at Stromboli volcano may prove useful for other open conduit active basaltic volcanoes.2536 163 - PublicationOpen AccessDynamic strain anomalies detection at Stromboli before 2019 vulcanian explosions using machine learning(2022-08-16)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; Identifying and characterizing the dynamics of explosive activity is impelling to build tools for hazard assessment at open-conduit volcanoes: machine learning techniques are now a feasible choice. During the summer of 2019, Stromboli experienced two paroxysmal eruptions that occurred in two different volcanic phases, which gave us the possibility to conceive and test an early-warning algorithm on a real use case: the paroxysm on July, 3 was clearly preceded by smaller and less perceptible changes in the volcano dynamics, while the second paroxysm, on August 28 concluded the eruptive phase. Among the changes observed in the weeks preceding the July paroxysm one of the most significant is represented by the shape variation of the ordinary minor explosions, filtered in the very long period (VLP 2–50 s) band, recorded by the Sacks-Evertson strainmeter installed near the village of Stromboli. Starting from these observations, the usage of two independent methods (an unsupervised machine learning strategy and a cross-correlation algorithm) to classify strain transients falling in the ultra long period (ULP 50–200 s) frequency band, allowed us to validate the robustness of the approach. This classification leads us to establish a link between VLP and ULP shape variation forms and volcanic activity, especially related to the unforeseen 3 July 2019 paroxysm. Previous warning times used to precede paroxysms at Stromboli are of a few minutes only. For paroxysmal events occurring outside any long-lasting eruption, the initial success of our approach, although applied only to the few available examples, could permit us to anticipate this time to several days by detecting medium-term strain anomalies: this could be crucial for risk mitigation by prohibiting access to the summit. Our innovative analysis of dynamic strain may be used to provide an early-warning system also on other open conduit active volcanoes.118 27 - PublicationRestrictedThe 15 January 2022 Event at Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai, Recorded by Multiparametric Stations in Italy(2022-04)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;The eruption of the volcano Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha‘apai on Jan 15, 2022, 04:14:54 UTC, was such energetic that instruments observed different physical phenomena all over the globe. In Italy, the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), who is continuously operating different kinds of monitoring networks, as e.g., the Italian Seismic Network (ISN), micro-barometric and infrasonic stations for monitoring the active volcanoes, ionospheric monitoring network (GNSS and ionosonde), recorded seismic, acoustic and electromagnetic signals originated by this exceptional event. The blast wave generated by the volcanic explosion of Hunga Tunga was recorded by the micro-barometric and infrasound stations installed at Phlegrean Fields (PF), at Stromboli volcano and on Mt. Etna. The first arrival was recorded at ~20:00 UTC, after travelling along the “short” great circle (17600 km), was succeeded by a second onset, about 3:40 h later, arriving at PF from the opposite direction. The mean propagation velocity in both directions was calculated as 310 m/s. The stations of the Etna Radio Observatory (ERO) are also equipped with micro-barometers, measuring the atmospheric pressure at a sampling rate of 5 min. The first group of atmospheric shock waves was recorded in the evening of Jan 15, 2022, while 36 hours later the ERO-stations observed a second signal after having completed the second orbit. The magnitude of M5.7 of the Hunga Tonga eruption was strong enough to record core phases (PKIKP, PKP), surface reflection of mantle phases (PP, SS), as well as Rayleigh and Love waves, at many stations of the ISN. The atmospheric waves generated by the eruption generated Travelling Ionospheric Disturbances in the ionosphere detected as disturbances in the Total Electron Content calculated by using GNSS data acquired by the GNSS network of INGV and variations of the ionospheric peak layer parameters (foF2, hmF2), recorded by the ionosonde installed on the Italian territory by INGV.91 8 - PublicationRestrictedHistoric Unrest of the Campi Flegrei Caldera, Italy(Springer Nature Switzerland AG. Part of Springer Nature, 2022-01)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;; ;; ;; After some centuries of subsidence, following the AD 1538 Monte Nuovo last eruption, the Campi Flegrei caldera has shown unrest episodes since at least 1950. The first uplift episode dates back to 1950–1952 and amounted to 73 cm, without any report or record of seismic activity. Two strong infla- tion episodes occurred in 1970–1972 and 1982–1984. The first accompanied by moder- ate low seismicity, with only few events felt by the population, whereas the second was accompanied by relatively intense swarms of volcano-tectonic earthquakes, reaching up to magnitude 4. The seismic activity caused alarm in the population and a spontaneous nightly evacuation of part of the town of Pozzuoli (44,000 inhabitants). Since this last episode, subsidence has been recorded for several years, interrupted by some mini-uplift events, lasting several weeks and accompa- nied by seismic swarms of low-magnitude volcano-tectonic events. In recent years, high sensitivity instruments have been installed to detect slow earthquake transients and other mechanical/temperature low-intensity precur- sory signals. Since late 2004 another moderate uplift is occurring at very small rate, amount- ing to about 1–2 cm/year, accompanied by long-period events. This uplift is different from the past mini-uplift events due to its duration. This work summarises all seismic and ground deformation data as well as the models proposed to interpret these phenom- ena, suggesting possible methods for detecting precursors of future eruptive activity in the area.101 18 - PublicationOpen AccessThe 2019 Eruptive Activity at Stromboli Volcano: A Multidisciplinary Approach to Reveal Hidden Features of the “Unexpected” 3 July Paroxysm(2021-10-11)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;In July and August 2019, Stromboli volcano underwent two dangerous paroxysms previously considered “unexpected” because of the absence of significant changes in usually monitored parameters. We applied a multidisciplinary approach to search for signals able to indicate the possibility of larger explosive activity and to devise a model to explain the observed variations. We analysed geodetic data, satellite thermal data, images from remote cameras and seismic data in a timespan crossing the eruptive period of 2019 to identify precursors of the two paroxysms on a medium-term time span (months) and to perform an in-depth analysis of the signals recorded on a short time scale (hours, minutes) before the paroxysm. We developed a model that explains the observations. We call the model “push and go” where the uppermost feeding system of Stromboli is made up of a lower section occupied by a low viscosity, low density magma that is largely composed of gases and a shallower section occupied by the accumulated melt. We hypothesize that the paroxysms are triggered when an overpressure in the lower section is built up; the explosion will occur at the very moment such overpressure overcomes the confining pressure of the highly viscous magma above it.1006 69 - PublicationOpen AccessGeophysical precursors of the July-August 2019 paroxysmal eruptive phase and their implications for Stromboli volcano (Italy) monitoring(2020-06-24)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; Two paroxysmal explosions occurred at Stromboli volcano in the Summer 2019, the first of which, on July 3, caused one fatality and some injuries. Within the 56 days between the two paroxysmal explosions, effusive activity from vents located in the summit area of the volcano occurred. No significant changes in routinely monitored parameters were detected before the paroxysmal explosions. However, we have calculated the polarization and the fractal dimension time series of the seismic signals from November 15, 2018 to September 15, 2019 and we have recognized variations that preceded the paroxysmal activity. In addition, we have defined a new parameter, based on RSAM estimation, related to the Very Long Period events, called VLP size, by means of which we have noticed significant variations through the whole month preceding the paroxysm of July 3. In the short term, we have analyzed the signals of a borehole strainmeter installed on the island, obtaining automatic triggers 10 minutes and 7.5 minutes before the July 3 and the August 28 paroxysms, respectively. The results of this study highlight mid-term seismic precursors of paroxysmal activity and provide valuable evidence for the development of an early warning system for paroxysmal explosions based on strainmeter measurements2402 95 - PublicationOpen AccessStrain Signals Before and During Paroxysmal Activity at Stromboli Volcano, Italy(2020)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; In the last decades, Mt. Stromboli produced four vulcanian eruptions, in 2003 and 2007 and July and August 2019, recorded by INGV monitoring network. Specifically, last three events are studied through records from borehole strainmeters, which allow to infer details on source dynamics. These events are preceded by a slow strain buildup, starting several minutes before the paroxysms, which can be used in future for early warning. Eruptions consist of two or more strain pulses, with oscillations ranging from several seconds, as in 2007, to some minutes, as in 2019, and lasting from several minutes to 1 hr after the explosions.273 21 - PublicationOpen AccessIntegration of Ground-Based Remote-Sensing and In Situ Multidisciplinary Monitoring Data to Analyze the Eruptive Activity of Stromboli Volcano in 2017–2018(2019-08-02)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; After a period of mild eruptive activity, Stromboli showed between 2017 and 2018 a reawakening phase, with an increase in the eruptive activity starting in May 2017. The alert level of the volcano was raised from “green” (base) to “yellow” (attention) on 7 December 2017, and a small lava overflowed the crater rim on 15 December 2017. Between July 2017 and August 2018 the monitoring networks recorded nine major explosions, which are a serious hazard for Stromboli because they affect the summit area, crowded by tourists. We studied the 2017–2018 eruptive phase through the analysis of multidisciplinary data comprising thermal video-camera images, seismic, geodetic and geochemical data. We focused on the major explosion mechanism analyzing the well-recorded 1 December 2017 major explosion as a case study. We found that the 2017–2018 eruptive phase is consistent with a greater gas-rich magma supply in the shallow system. Furthermore, through the analysis of the case study major explosion, we identified precursory phases in the strainmeter and seismic data occurring 77 and 38 s before the explosive jet reached the eruptive vent, respectively. On the basis of these short-term precursors, we propose an automatic timely alarm system for major explosions at Stromboli volcano.3566 82