Di Lieto, Bellina

Monitoring volcanic activity is a complex task, given the intricate nature of volcanic processes and the diverse eruptive styles exhibited by different volcanoes. Early Detection (ED) systems have emerged as indispensable tools for mitigating potential risks associated with volcanic eruptions. The effectiveness of these systems is contingent upon their ability to provide timely and accurate alerts, as false alarms or missed warnings can lead to economic repercussions and pose risks to infrastructure and human safety. Evaluating the reliability of the ED systems may be paramount not only for effective hazard mitigation but also for facilitating the implementation and optimization of an ED model. However, developing an ED model is a challenging and labor-intensive endeavor, also requiring a deep understanding of advanced techniques and a meticulous calibration of various parameters. In response to these challenges, we present the Framework for Evaluation of Early Detection Systems (FEEDS). FEEDS is a comprehensive Python-based package designed to automatically assess the generalization capability of generic ED systems through cross-validation. The framework introduces a generic class representing the ED model identified solely through data, enabling a systematic assessment based on essential predictive parameters, including True Positive Rate, False Discovery Rate, prediction time, and Fraction of Time in Alarm, by performing a simulation. To validate the effectiveness of FEEDS, we utilized tiltmeter and strainmeter data recorded at Stromboli volcano between 2007 and 2019. These datasets, managed by Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia and Università di Firenze, were employed to implement FEEDS with a customized model for the early detection of the paroxysmal activity affecting the volcano during the period of the study, demonstrating the practical applicability and reliability of this framework in real-world volcanic monitoring scenarios. FEEDS may represent a valuable contribution to the ongoing efforts to enhance ED systems and their application in mitigating volcanic hazards. The development of a robust framework that automates the standard evaluation process not only streamlines system implementation but also reduces user efforts and establishes a common ground for assessing the reliability and performance of different ED models, contributing significantly to the advancement of volcanic monitoring capabilities.

Lava overflows are highly hazardous phenomena that can occur at Stromboli. They can destabilize the crater area and the "Sciara del Fuoco" unstable slope, formed by several sector collapses, which can generate potentially tsunamigenic landslides. In this study, we have identified precursors of the October-November 2022 effusive crisis through seismic and thermal camera measurements. We analyzed the lava overflow on October 9, which was preceded by a crater-rim collapse, and the overflow on November 16. In both cases, seismic precursors anticipating the overflow onset have been observed. The analysis of the seismic and thermal data led to the conclusion that the seismic precursors were caused by an escalating degassing process from the eruptive vent, which climaxed with the overflows. Volcano deformation derived from ground-based InSAR and strainmeter data showed that inflation of the crater area accompanied the escalating degassing process up to the beginning of the lava overflows. The inflation of the crater area was especially evident in the October 9 episode, which also showed a longer seismic precursor compared to the November 16 event (58 and 40 min respectively). These results are important for understanding Stromboli's eruptive mechanisms and open a perspective for early warning of potentially dangerous phenomena.

The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano (Pacific Ocean) generated a cataclysmic explosion on 15 January 2022, triggering several atmospheric disturbances at a global scale, as a huge increase in the total electron content (TEC) in the ionosphere, and a pressure wave travelling in the troposphere. We collected and analysed data over the Mediterranean to study these disturbances, and in particular, (i) data from the barometric and infrasonic stations installed on Italian active volcanoes by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) for investigating the tropospheric pressure waves; (ii) barometric data from the INGV-TROPOMAG and SIAS (Sicilian Agro-meteorological Information System) networks, for investigating the interaction between the orography and pressure waves; (iii) ionograms from the Advanced Ionospheric Sounder-INGV ionosonde at Gibilmanna (Sicily, Italy); (iv) data from the RING (Rete Italiana Integrata GNSS) network, to retrieve the ionospheric TEC; (v) soil CO2 flux data from the INGV surveillance network of Vulcano Island. The analysis of the ground-level barometric data highlights that pressure waves were reflected and diffracted by the topographic surface, creating a complex space–time dynamic of the atmospheric disturbances travelling over Sicily, driven by the interference among the different wavefronts. The ionograms show that a medium-scale travelling ionospheric disturbance (MSTID), with a horizontal wavelength of about 220 km and a period of about 35 min, propagated through the ionospheric plasma in the correspondence of the first barometric variations. Moreover, comparing detrended TEC and barometric data, we further confirmed the presence of the aforementioned MSTID together with its close relation to the tropospheric disturbance.

Open conduit volcanoes like Stromboli can display elusive changes in activity before major eruptive events. Starting on December 2020, Stromboli volcano displayed an increasing eruptive activity, that on 19 May 2021 led to a crater-rim collapse, with pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) that spread along the barren NWflank, entered the sea and ran across it for more than 1 km. This episode was followed by lava flow output from the crater rim lasting a few hours, followed by another phase of lava flow in June 2021. These episodes are potentially very dangerous on island volcanoes since a landslide of hot material that turns into a pyroclastic density current and spreads on the sea surface can threaten mariners and coastal communities, as happened at Stromboli on 3 July and 28 August 2019. In addition, on entering the sea, if their volume is large enough, landslides may trigger tsunamis, as occurred at Stromboli on 30 December 2002. In this paper, we present an integration of multidisciplinary monitoring data, including thermal and visible camera images, ground deformation data gathered from GNSS, tilt, strainmeter and GBInSAR, seismicity, SO2 plume and CO2 ground fluxes and thermal data from the ground and satellite imagery, together with petrological analyses of the erupted products compared with samples from previous similar events. We aim at characterizing the preparatory phase of the volcano that began on December 2020 and led to the May–June 2021 eruptive activity, distinguishing this small intrusion of magma from the much greater 2019 eruptive phase, which was fed by gas-rich magma responsible for the paroxysmal explosive and effusive phases of July–August 2019. These complex eruption scenarios have important implications for hazard assessment and the lessons learned at Stromboli volcano may prove useful for other open conduit active basaltic volcanoes.

Identifying and characterizing the dynamics of explosive activity is impelling to build tools for hazard assessment at open-conduit volcanoes: machine learning techniques are now a feasible choice. During the summer of 2019, Stromboli experienced two paroxysmal eruptions that occurred in two different volcanic phases, which gave us the possibility to conceive and test an early-warning algorithm on a real use case: the paroxysm on July, 3 was clearly preceded by smaller and less perceptible changes in the volcano dynamics, while the second paroxysm, on August 28 concluded the eruptive phase. Among the changes observed in the weeks preceding the July paroxysm one of the most significant is represented by the shape variation of the ordinary minor explosions, filtered in the very long period (VLP 2–50 s) band, recorded by the Sacks-Evertson strainmeter installed near the village of Stromboli. Starting from these observations, the usage of two independent methods (an unsupervised machine learning strategy and a cross-correlation algorithm) to classify strain transients falling in the ultra long period (ULP 50–200 s) frequency band, allowed us to validate the robustness of the approach. This classification leads us to establish a link between VLP and ULP shape variation forms and volcanic activity, especially related to the unforeseen 3 July 2019 paroxysm. Previous warning times used to precede paroxysms at Stromboli are of a few minutes only. For paroxysmal events occurring outside any long-lasting eruption, the initial success of our approach, although applied only to the few available examples, could permit us to anticipate this time to several days by detecting medium-term strain anomalies: this could be crucial for risk mitigation by prohibiting access to the summit. Our innovative analysis of dynamic strain may be used to provide an early-warning system also on other open conduit active volcanoes.

The eruption of the volcano Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha‘apai on Jan 15, 2022, 04:14:54 UTC, was such energetic that instruments observed different physical phenomena all over the globe. In Italy, the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), who is continuously operating different kinds of monitoring networks, as e.g., the Italian Seismic Network (ISN), micro-barometric and infrasonic stations for monitoring the active volcanoes, ionospheric monitoring network (GNSS and ionosonde), recorded seismic, acoustic and electromagnetic signals originated by this exceptional event. The blast wave generated by the volcanic explosion of Hunga Tunga was recorded by the micro-barometric and infrasound stations installed at Phlegrean Fields (PF), at Stromboli volcano and on Mt. Etna. The first arrival was recorded at ~20:00 UTC, after travelling along the “short” great circle (17600 km), was succeeded by a second onset, about 3:40 h later, arriving at PF from the opposite direction. The mean propagation velocity in both directions was calculated as 310 m/s. The stations of the Etna Radio Observatory (ERO) are also equipped with micro-barometers, measuring the atmospheric pressure at a sampling rate of 5 min. The first group of atmospheric shock waves was recorded in the evening of Jan 15, 2022, while 36 hours later the ERO-stations observed a second signal after having completed the second orbit. The magnitude of M5.7 of the Hunga Tonga eruption was strong enough to record core phases (PKIKP, PKP), surface reflection of mantle phases (PP, SS), as well as Rayleigh and Love waves, at many stations of the ISN. The atmospheric waves generated by the eruption generated Travelling Ionospheric Disturbances in the ionosphere detected as disturbances in the Total Electron Content calculated by using GNSS data acquired by the GNSS network of INGV and variations of the ionospheric peak layer parameters (foF2, hmF2), recorded by the ionosonde installed on the Italian territory by INGV.

After some centuries of subsidence, following the AD 1538 Monte Nuovo last eruption, the Campi Flegrei caldera has shown unrest episodes since at least 1950. The first uplift episode dates back to 1950–1952 and amounted to 73 cm, without any report or record of seismic activity. Two strong infla- tion episodes occurred in 1970–1972 and 1982–1984. The first accompanied by moder- ate low seismicity, with only few events felt by the population, whereas the second was accompanied by relatively intense swarms of volcano-tectonic earthquakes, reaching up to magnitude 4. The seismic activity caused alarm in the population and a spontaneous nightly evacuation of part of the town of Pozzuoli (44,000 inhabitants). Since this last episode, subsidence has been recorded for several years, interrupted by some mini-uplift events, lasting several weeks and accompa- nied by seismic swarms of low-magnitude volcano-tectonic events. In recent years, high sensitivity instruments have been installed to detect slow earthquake transients and other mechanical/temperature low-intensity precur- sory signals. Since late 2004 another moderate uplift is occurring at very small rate, amount- ing to about 1–2 cm/year, accompanied by long-period events. This uplift is different from the past mini-uplift events due to its duration. This work summarises all seismic and ground deformation data as well as the models proposed to interpret these phenom- ena, suggesting possible methods for detecting precursors of future eruptive activity in the area.

In July and August 2019, Stromboli volcano underwent two dangerous paroxysms previously considered “unexpected” because of the absence of significant changes in usually monitored parameters. We applied a multidisciplinary approach to search for signals able to indicate the possibility of larger explosive activity and to devise a model to explain the observed variations. We analysed geodetic data, satellite thermal data, images from remote cameras and seismic data in a timespan crossing the eruptive period of 2019 to identify precursors of the two paroxysms on a medium-term time span (months) and to perform an in-depth analysis of the signals recorded on a short time scale (hours, minutes) before the paroxysm. We developed a model that explains the observations. We call the model “push and go” where the uppermost feeding system of Stromboli is made up of a lower section occupied by a low viscosity, low density magma that is largely composed of gases and a shallower section occupied by the accumulated melt. We hypothesize that the paroxysms are triggered when an overpressure in the lower section is built up; the explosion will occur at the very moment such overpressure overcomes the confining pressure of the highly viscous magma above it.

New fault trace mapping and structural survey of the active faults outcropping within the epicentral area of the Campania-Lucania 1980 normal fault earthquake (Mw 6.9) are integrated with a revision of pre-existing earthquake data and with an updated interpretation of the CROP-04 near-vertical seismic profile to reconstruct the surface and depth geometry, the kinematics and stress tensor of the seismogenic fault pattern. Three main fault alignments, organized in high-angle en-echelon segments of several kilometers in length, are identified and characterized. The inner and intermediate ones, i.e. Inner Irpinia (InIF) and Irpinia Faults (IF), dip eastward; the outer Antithetic Fault (AFA) dips westward. Both the InIF and the IF strike NW-SE along the northern and central segments and rotate to W-E along the southern segments for at least 16 km. We provide evidence of surface coseismic faulting (up to 1 m) not recognized before along the E-W segments and document coseismic ruptures with maximum vertical displacement up to ∼1 m where already surveyed from other investigators 40 years ago. Fault/slip data from surface data and a new compilation of focal mechanisms (1980 – 2018) were used for strain and stress analyses to show a coherent NNE-directed least principal stress over time and at different crustal depths, with a crustal-scale deviation from the classic SW-NE tensional direction across the Apennines of Italy. The continuation at depth of the outcropping faults is analyzed along the trace of the CROP-04 profile and with available hypocentral distributions. Integrating all information, a 3D seismotectonic model, extrapolated to the base of the seismogenic layer, is built. It outlines a graben-like structure with a southern E-W bend developed at depth shallower than 10–12 km, at the hanging wall of an extensional NE- to E-dipping extensional basal detachment. In our interpretation, such a configuration implies a control in the stress transfer during the 1980 earthquake ruptures and provides a new interpretation of the second sub-event, occurred at 20 s. Our reconstruction suggests that the latter ruptured a hanging wall NNE-dipping splay of the E-W striking main fault segment and possibly also an antithetic SSW-dipping splay, in two in-sequence episodes.

Two paroxysmal explosions occurred at Stromboli volcano in the Summer 2019, the first of which, on July 3, caused one fatality and some injuries. Within the 56 days between the two paroxysmal explosions, effusive activity from vents located in the summit area of the volcano occurred. No significant changes in routinely monitored parameters were detected before the paroxysmal explosions. However, we have calculated the polarization and the fractal dimension time series of the seismic signals from November 15, 2018 to September 15, 2019 and we have recognized variations that preceded the paroxysmal activity. In addition, we have defined a new parameter, based on RSAM estimation, related to the Very Long Period events, called VLP size, by means of which we have noticed significant variations through the whole month preceding the paroxysm of July 3. In the short term, we have analyzed the signals of a borehole strainmeter installed on the island, obtaining automatic triggers 10 minutes and 7.5 minutes before the July 3 and the August 28 paroxysms, respectively. The results of this study highlight mid-term seismic precursors of paroxysmal activity and provide valuable evidence for the development of an early warning system for paroxysmal explosions based on strainmeter measurements