Amorosi, Alessandro

Effective site characterization in highly urbanized coastal lowlands requires accurate stratigraphic and geophysical investigations. In these regions, which typically host shallowly buried paleovalley systems formed in response to Quaternary glacio-eustatic fluctuations, the marked lithologic contrast between soft sediment paleovalley fills and the adjacent, stiff substrate has the potential to modify earthquake motions, and assessment of critical parameters, such as shear wave velocities (VS) and resonance frequencies (f), should be coupled with detailed stratigraphic architecture. To evaluate the potential of the microtremor horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (mHVSR) for paleovalley recognition and mapping, we performed mHVSR measurements along the Adriatic coastal plain of Italy, where two paleovalley systems (Pescara and Manfredonia) have been recently identified. In both areas, we detected rapid lateral variations in resonance frequencies and highlighted laterally continuous impedance contrasts. Relying on a robust stratigraphic framework, we carefully evaluated the relation between geological and geophysical data and identified the stratigraphic surfaces responsible for the observed resonances. We derived VS models for the sediment fill, reconstructing the geometry of the two buried paleovalleys. We address the importance of evaluating the geological context when designing microzonation studies, for a reliable interpretation of changes in resonance frequencies.

The Gulf of La Spezia (GLS) in Northwest Italy is a rocky embayment with low fluvial influence facing the Mediterranean Sea. Past landscape dynamics were investigated through a multiproxy, facies-based analysis down to a core depth of 30 m. The integration of quantitative ostracod, foraminifera, and pollen analyses, supported by radiocarbon ages, proved to be a powerful tool to unravel the late Quaternary palaeoenvironmental evolution and its forcing factors. The complex interplay between relative sea-level (RSL), climatic changes, and geomorphological features of the embayment drove four main evolution phases. A barrier–lagoon system developed in response to the rising RSL of the Late Pleistocene (likely the Last Interglacial). The establishment of glacial conditions then promoted the development of an alluvial environment, with generalised erosion of the underlying succession and subsequent accumulation of fluvial strata. The Holocene transgression (dated ca. 9000 cal year BP) caused GLS inundation and the formation of a low-confined lagoon basin, which rapidly turned into a coastal bay from ca. 8000 cal year BP onwards. This latter environmental change occurred in response to the last Holocene stage of global sea-level acceleration, which submerged a morphological relief currently forming a drowned barrier-island complex in the embayment.

We depict the relative sea-level rise scenarios for the year 2100 from four areas of the Italian peninsula. Our estimates are based on the Rahmstorf (2007) and IPCC-AR5 reports 2013 for the RCP-8.5 scenarios (www.ipcc.ch) of climate change, adjusted for the rates of vertical land movements (isostasy and tectonics). These latter are inferred from the elevation of MIS 5.5 deposits and from late Holocene sea-level indicators, matched against sea-level predictions for the same periods using the glacio-hydro-isostatic model of Lambeck et al. (2011). We focus on a variety of tectonic settings: the subsiding North Adriatic coast (including the Venice lagoon), two tectonically stable Sardinia coastal plains (Oristano and Cagliari), and the slightly uplifting Taranto coastal plain, in Apulia. Maps of flooding scenarios are shown on high-resolution Digital Terrain Models mostly based on Lidar data. The expected relative sea-level rise by 2100 will change dramatically the present-day morphology, potentially flooding up to about 5500 km2 of coastal plains at elevations close to present-day sea level. The subsequent loss of land will impact the environment and local infrastructures, suggesting land planners and decision makers to take into account these scenarios for a cognizant coastal management. Our method developed for the Italian coast can be applied worldwide in other coastal areas expected to be affected by marine ingression due to global climate change.

The coastal areas of the central Mediterranean Sea are sensitive to climate change and the consequent relative sea level rise. Both phenomena may affect densely urbanized and populated areas, causing severe damages. Our maps show the land-marine flooding projections as effects of the expected relative sea level rise for four Italian coastal plains using (i) IPCC AR5 estimations, based on the IPCC RCP 8.5 emission scenarios and (ii) the Rahmstorf 2007 model. Isostatic and tectonic data were added to the global projections to estimate the relative sea changes expected along the coastline by 2100, as well as sea-flooding. The northern Adriatic map shows the study area, extending for about 5500 km2, and is presented at a scale of 1:300,000 with two inset maps at a scale of 1:150,000. The Oristano coastal plain is about 125 km2; the map scale is at 1:60,000 with an inset map scale at 1:33,000. The Cagliari coastal study area extends for 61 km2; the map scale is at 1:60,000 with two inset maps at 1:30,000. The Taranto area extends for 4.2 km2 and is represented at a scale map of 1:30,000, while the three inset maps are at a scale of 1:10,000.