Santacroce, Roberto

The Somma-Vesuvius (SV) volcano has shown in its history a large variability of eruptive styles associated with a significant spatial variability of vent locations. In particular, the vent position of large explosive eruptions showed a shift within the present SV caldera. Numerical simulations of explosive eruptions with varying vent location inside the caldera indicate a major effect on the runout and dispersal of pyroclastic density currents produced by column collapse. This work summarizes the activities that have been put forward with the aim of producing a first background (also named long-term or basal) vent opening probability map for the area of the SV caldera. These activities have been focused on three main objectives: i) the collection and critical review of key volcanological features (location of past vents, distribution of faults, etc.) that can influence the spatial distribution of future vents; ii) the development of probability density maps through the use of Gaussian kernel functions on the different volcanological datasets and iii) the weighted linear combination of the density maps of the volcanological variables to produce a background vent opening probability map where uncertainties are explicitly accounted for through expert elicitation methods. Results illustrate the different influence of the volcanological variables on the final maps, the areas at higher and lower probability of vent opening and the effects of the different elicitation methods adopted to quantify the uncertainty sources. The map represents the first step to the production of maps of the probability distribution of pyroclastic flow invasion or of ash fallout for the different eruptive scenarios to be considered in the case of a next reactivation at SV.

Volcanic ash produced during explosive eruptions can have very severe impacts on modern technological societies. Here, we use reconstructed patterns of fine ash dispersal recorded in terrestrial and marine geological archives to assess volcanic ash hazards. The ash-dispersal maps from nine Holocene explosive eruptions of Italian volcanoes have been used to construct frequency maps of distal ash deposition over a wide area, which encompasses central and southern Italy, the Adriatic and Tyrrhenian seas and the Balkans. The maps are presented as two cumulative-thickness isopach maps, one for nine eruptions from different volcanoes and one for six eruptions from Somma-Vesuvius. These maps represent the first use of distal ash layers to construct volcanic hazard maps, and the proposed methodology is easily applicable to other volcanic areas worldwide.

The Somma-Vesuvius (SV) volcanic complex has shown in his history a moderate variability of eruptive styles associated with a significant spatial variability of the associated vent locations. This is proved by the presence of numerous eccentric vents which fed effusive eruptions and also by the variability of the vent area of the large explosive eruptions that showed a shift within the present multistage SV caldera. Numerical simulations of explosive eruptions with variable vent locations inside the caldera have shown that this variability, although restricted to an area a few square kilometers, can have a major effect on the associated hazard, particularly for the threat associated to the occurrence of pyroclastic density currents produced by column collapse. This work summarizes some of the activities that have been put forward with the aim of producing a first long-term vent opening probability map for the area of the Somma-Vesuvius caldera. These activities mainly consist in the recognition and collection of key volcano features that can be linked to the spatial distribution of volcanic activity as well as used for their probabilistic treatment. Key variables that have been considered so far include: a) location of Plinian and sub-Plinian volcanic vents; b) location of moderately explosive eruptions (Violent Strombolian to ash emission); c) location of parasitic vents and eruptive fissures; d) distribution of subsurface faults from DTM analysis; e) distribution of the main deep lineaments, as deduced from published geophysical inversions. Locations of Plinian and sub-Plinian volcanic vents have been represented considering their uncertainties based on the available reconstruction of deposits and expert judgment. Parasitic cone and eruptive fissure locations have been also compiled after a comparative analysis of different bibliographic sources, including geological, geomorphological and topographic maps. Distribution of faults and fractures have been finally derived by integrating data from literature studies and new analysis of different digital terrain models (DTM). All the data have been imported into a GIS-based workspace that allowed to organize, analyze and elaborate different datasets. By assuming that each dataset can contribute to the probability distribution of vent opening through the assignment of appropriate weights (e.g. based on expert elicitation), preliminary vent opening (susceptibility) maps will be produced. Results will be used in the production of more accurate hazard maps of the range of expected explosive phenomena in case of a future reactivation of Somma-Vesuvius.

A detailed tephrostratigraphic study supported by stable isotope (δ18O) analyses and AMS 14C dating was carried out on a high sedimentation rate deep-sea core recovered in the northern Ionian Sea. Eight tephra layers were recognised, all originated from explosive eruptions of southern Italian volcanoes. These tephra layers are correlated with terrestrial proximal counterparts and with both marine and lacustrine tephra already known in the central Mediterranean area. The oldest tephra (dated at ca. 19.4 ka cal BP) is tentatively correlated to the Monte Guardia eruption from Lipari Island. Two other rhyolitic tephra layers were correlated with the explosive volcanic activity of Lipari Island: Gabellotto-Fiumebianco/E-1 (8.3 ka cal BP) located close to the interruption of Sapropel S1 deposit, and Monte Pilato (ca. AD 1335) in the uppermost part of the core. The Na-phonolitic composition of the other five recognised tephra layers indicates the Somma-Vesuvius as the source. The composition is quite homogeneous among the five tephra layers, and fits that of the Mercato proximal deposits. Beyond the striking chemical similarity with the Mercato eruption, these tephra layers span over ca. 2000 years, preventing correlation with the single well known Plinian eruption of the Somma-Vesuvius. Therefore, at least two of these tephra layers were assigned to an interplinian activity of the Somma-Vesuvius between the eruptions of Mercato and Avellino, even though these eruptions remains poorly constrained in the proximal area. By contrast, the most prominent tephra layer (2 mm white tephra visible at naked eyes) was found within the S1a Sapropel interval. Despite the possible complication for the presence of similar eruption with different ages we argue that Mercato is probably a very good marker for the onset of sapropelic condition in the Ionian Sea and can be used for land-sea correlations for this important climatic event. More in general, these data allow a significant update of the knowledge of the volcanic ash dispersal from Lipari and Somma-Vesuvius volcanoes.

The identification and characterisation of high-frequency climatic changes during the Holocene requires natural archives with precise and accurate chronological control, which is usually difficult to achieve using only 14C chronologies. The presence of time-spaced tephra beds in Quaternary Mediterranean successions represents an additional, independent tool for dating and correlating different sedimentary archives. These tephra layers are potentially useful for resolving long-standing issues in paleoclimatology and can help towards correlating terrestrial and marine paleoclimate archives. Known major tephras of regional extent derive from central and southern Italy, the Hellenic Arc, and from Anatolia. A striking feature of major Holocene tephra deposition events in the Mediterranean is that they are clustered rather than randomly distributed in time. Several tephra layers occurred at the time of the S1 sapropel formation between c. 8.4 and 9.0 ka BP (Mercato, Gabellotto-Fiumebianco/E1, Cappadocia) and other important tephra layers (Avellino, Agnano Monte Spina, ‘Khabur’ and Santorini/Thera) occurred during the second and third millennia BC, marking an important and complex phase of environmental changes during the mid- to late-Holocene climatic transition. There is great potential in using cryptotephra to overlap geographically Italian volcanic ashes with those originating from the Aegean and Anatolia, in order to connect regional tephrochronologies between the central and eastern Mediterranean.

Destructive volcaniclastic flows are among the most recurrent and dangerous natural phenomena in volcanic areas. They can originate not only during or shortly after an eruption (syn-eruptive) but also during a period of volcanic quiescence (inter-eruptive), when heavy and/or persistent rains remobilize loose pyroclastic deposits. The area in Italy most prone to such flows is that of the Apennine Mountains bordering the southern Campania Plain. These steep slopes are covered by pyroclastic material of variable thickness (a few cm to several m) derived from the explosive activity of the Somma-Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei volcanoes a few tens of kilometers to the west. The largest and most recent devastating event occurred on May 5, 1998, causing the death of more than 150 people and considerable damage to villages at the foot of the Apennine Mountains. This tragic event was only the most recent of a number of volcaniclastic flows affecting the area in both historical and prehistoric times. Historical accounts report that more than 500 events have occurred in the last five centuries and that more than half of these occurred in the last 100 years, causing hundreds of deaths. In order to improve volcaniclastic flow hazard zonation and risk mitigation in the study area, we produced a zonation map that identifies the drainage basins potentially prone to disruption. This map was obtained by combining morphological characteristics (concavity and basin shape factor) and the mean slope distribution of drainage basins derived from a digital elevation model with a 10-m resolution. These parameters allowed for the classification of 1,069 drainage basins, which have been grouped into four different classes of proneness to disruption: low, moderate, high and very high. The map compiled in a GIS environment, as well as the linked database, can be rapidly queried.

During the past 22 ka of activity at Somma– Vesuvius, catastrophic pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) have been generated repeatedly. Examples are those that destroyed the towns of Pompeii and Ercolano in AD 79, as well as Torre del Greco and several circum-Vesuvian villages in AD 1631. Using new field data and data available from the literature, we delineate the area impacted by PDCs at Somma–Vesuvius to improve the related hazard assessment. We mainly focus on the dispersal, thickness, and extent of the PDC deposits generated during seven plinian and sub-plinian eruptions, namely, the Pomici di Base, Greenish Pumice, Pomici di Mercato, Pomici di Avellino, Pompeii Pumice, AD 472 Pollena, and AD 1631 eruptions. We present maps of the total thickness of the PDC deposits for each eruption. Five out of seven eruptions dispersed PDCs radially, sometimes showing a preferred direction controlled by the position of the vent and the paleotopography. Only the PDCs from AD 1631 eruption were influenced by the presence of the Mt Somma caldera wall which stopped their advance in a northerly direction. Most PDC deposits are located downslope of the pronounced break-in slope that marks the base of the Somma– Vesuvius cone. PDCs from the Pomici di Avellino and Pompeii Pumice eruptions have the most dispersed deposits (extending more than 20 km from the inferred vent). These deposits are relatively thin, normally graded, and stratified. In contrast, thick, massive, lithic-rich deposits are only dispersed within 7 to 8 km of the vent. Isopach maps and the deposit features reveal that PDC dispersal was strongly controlled by the intensity of the eruption (in terms of magma discharge rate), the position of the vent area with respect to the Mt Somma caldera wall, and the pre-existing topography. Facies characteristics of the PDC deposits appear to correlate with dispersal; the stratified facies are consistently dispersed more widely than the massive facies.

We present a new tephrostratigraphic record from the Holocene lake sediments of the Sulmona basin, central Italy. The Holocene succession is represented by whitish calcareous mud that is divided into two units, SUL2 (ca 32 m thick) and SUL1 (ca 8 m thick), for a total thickness of ca 40 m. These units correspond to the youngest two out of six sedimentary cycles recognised in the Sulmona basin that are related to the lake sedimentation since the Middle Pleistocene. Height concordant U series age determinations and additional chronological data constrain the whole Holocene succession to between ca 8000 and 1000 yrs BP. This includes a sedimentary hiatus that separates the SUL2 and SUL1 units, which is roughly dated between <2800 and ca 2000 yrs BP. A total of 31 and 6 tephra layers were identified within the SUL2 and SUL1 units, respectively. However, only 28 tephra layers yielded fresh micropumices or glass shards suitable for chemical analyses using a microprobe wavelength dispersive spectrometer. Chronological and compositional constraints suggest that 27 ash layers probably derive from the Mt. Somma-Vesuvius Holocene volcanic activity, and one to the Ischia Island eruption of the Cannavale tephra (2920 _ 450 cal yrs BP). The 27 ash layers compatible with Mt. Somma-Vesuvius activity are clustered in three different time intervals: from ca 2000 to >1000; from 3600 to 3100; and from 7600 to 4700 yrs BP. The first, youngest cluster, comprises six layers and correlates with the intense explosive activity of Mt. Somma-Vesuvius that occurred after the prominent AD 79 Pompeii eruption, but only the near-Plinian event of AD 472 has been tentatively recognised. The intermediate cluster (3600– 3100 yrs BP) starts with tephra that chemically and chronologically matches the products from the ‘‘Pomici di Avellino’’ eruption (ca 3800_ 200 yrs BP). This is followed by eight further layers, where the glasses exhibit chemical features that are similar in composition to the products from the so-called ‘‘Protohistoric’’ or AP eruptions; however, only the distal equivalents of three AP events (AP3, AP4 and AP6) are tentatively designated. Finally, the early cluster (7600–4700 yrs BP) comprises 12 layers that contain evidence of a surprising, previously unrecognised, activity of the Mt. Somma-Vesuvius volcano during its supposed period of quiescence, between the major Plinian ‘‘Pomici di Mercato’’ (ca 9000 yrs BP) and ‘‘Pomici di Avellino’’ eruptions. Alternatively, since at present there is no evidence of a similar significant activity in the proximal area of this well-known volcano, a hitherto unknown origin of these tephras cannot be role out. The results of the present study provide new data that enrich our previous knowledge of the Holocene tephrostratigraphy and tephrochronology in central Italy, and a new model for the recent explosive activity of the Peninsular Italy volcanoes and the dispersal of the related pyroclastic deposits.

Probabilistic characterizations of possible future eruptive scenarios at Vesuvius volcano are elaborated and organized within a risk-based framework. In the EXPLORIS project, a wide variety of topics relating to this basic problem have been pursued: updates of historical data, reinterpretation of previous geological field data and the collection of new fieldwork results, the development of novel numerical modelling codes and of risk assessment techniques have all been completed. To achieve coherence, many diverse strands of evidence had to be unified within a formalised structure, and linked together by expert knowledge. For this purpose, a Vesuvius ‘Event Tree’ (ET) was created to summarise in a numerical-graphical form, at different levels of detail, all the relative likelihoods relating to the genesis and style of eruption, development and nature of volcanic hazards, and the probabilities of occurrence of different volcanic risks in the next eruption crisis. The Event Tree formulation provides a logical pathway connecting generic probabilistic hazard assessment to quantitative risk evaluation. In order to achieve a complete parameterization for this all-inclusive approach, exhaustive hazard and risk models were needed, quantified with comprehensive uncertainty distributions for all factors involved, rather than simple ‘best-estimate’ or nominal values. Thus, a structured expert elicitation procedure was implemented to complement more traditional data analysis and interpretative approaches. The structure of the Vesuvius Event Tree is presented, and some of the data analysis findings and elicitation outcomes that have provided initial indicative probability distributions to be associated with each of its branches are summarized. The Event Tree extends from initiating volcanic eruption events and hazards right through to human impact and infrastructure consequences, with the complete tree and its parameterisation forming a quantitative synoptic framework for comprehensive hazard evaluation and mapping of risk impacts. The organization of the Event Tree allows easy updating, as and when new information becomes available

We present here some criticism to the scientific content of the paper of Milia et al. [2007. The dark nature of Somma-Vesuvius volcano: evidence from the 3.5 ka B.P. Avellino eruption. Quaternary International, 173–174, 57–66] published in Quaternary International. Milia et al. (2007) interpreted seismic lines in the Gulf of Naples (southern Italy), and inferred the presence of deposits from a large debris avalanche which occurred just before the Avellino eruption of Somma-Vesuvius volcano. The authors supported their seismic profile interpretation with on-land stratigraphies and logs. However, we present here different on-land data that demonstrate the inconsistency of the occurrence of any debris avalanche before or after the Avellino eruption, and we provide also an alternative interpretation for the observed seismic facies offshore of Somma-Vesuvius.