Akinci, Aybige

The seismic activity known as the Amatrice-Visso-Norcia seismic sequence began on August 24th, 2016, with the M6.2 earthquake in Amatrice, Italy. This sequence included eight additional earthquakes with magnitudes above 5.0, which caused significant damage to nearby villages. The largest and most significant event occurred on October 30th, 2016, with a magnitude of 6.5 in Norcia, central Apennines. In this study, we perform physics-based simulations and investigate the ground motion variability for Norcia and Amatrice earthquakes using the Pitarka et al. (2021a) and Akinci et al. (2023) simulation approaches, respectively. We generated broad-band ground-motion acceleration time histories (0-10Hz) for these two earthquakes using frequency-wavenumber Green’s functions (FK approach) and kinematic rupture models generated with the Graves and Pitarka (2016) technique. The FK Green’s functions (GF) were computed using the propagator matrix method of Zhu and Rivera (2002) and a 1D velocity model of Central Italy (CIA) (Hermann et al., 2011). The FK-based broad-band simulation method allows for fast and realistic generation of synthetic time histories, provided that appropriate GF repository and source rupture models are available. Finally, we analyzed the performance of our 1D simulation approach by comparing our synthetic ground motions with those computed with a regional 3D velocity model and the recorded ones. We found that the FK-based simulation approach and the 1D CIA velocity model produce ground motion that compares well with recorded data throughout the region in the modeled frequency range 0-10 Hz. Because this simulation technique is very fast and reliable, it can be used to produce ground motion maps soon after a major earthquake, and in computing scenario-based ground motion for seismic hazard assessment in Central Italy.

On February 6th, 2023, two severe earthquakes struck southeastern Türkiye near the Syrian border. The first earthquake, Mw7.8, occurred at 04:17 local time in the East Anatolian Fault Zone near the city of Gaziantep. The second earthquake, Mw7.5, occurred approximately 9 h later at 13:24 local time near Elbistan County, in Kahramanmaraş province. These seismic events ruptured multiple segments of the East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ), with rupture lengths exceeding 300 km, and deformation exceeding 5 m on both sides of the faults. In this study, we aim to analyze characteristics of the strong ground motion induced by the mainshocks, focusing on ground motion intensity measures such as the peak ground acceleration (PGA), the peak ground velocity (PGV), and the pseudo-acceleration response spectra (PSA). The first earthquake produced extremely high PGA values in both horizontal (> 2 g) and vertical (> 1 g) components. At near field distances, large PGVs are measured (> 180 cm/s) with more than 30 impulsive motions which may indicate source-related effects. Large spectral demands are also recorded for both earthquakes, partially underestimated by Ground Motion Models (GMMs), especially in the near-field. Specifically, we compare the PSA for horizontal directions with the design spectra provided by both the new and previous Turkish building codes. We also present building and ground damage observations that provide insights into the observed ground motions in the heavily damaged areas.

The new generation seismic hazard maps use 3D seismotectonic fault models, which are more consistent with the actual nature of faults, whereas the classical models based on earthquake catalogs only utilize a 2D representation of the seismicity. Although the former provides more reliable information on seismogenic structures, the latter can deliver trustworthy seismicity rates easily. Therefore, it is necessary to combine both the approaches to create a high‐quality seismic hazard assessment model. This study proposes an innovative approach using smoothed seismicity methods that can be advantageous in all contexts with available 3D fault models and high‐quality seismic catalogs. We applied our method on the Adriatic Basal Thrust (ABT) in eastern central Italy—a lithospheric‐scale active contractional structure with a well‐constrained 3D geometric–kinematic reconstruction and a related high‐quality catalog. Our new 3D algorithm was applied to smooth the ABT seismicity on the grid, resulting in a 3D earthquake rate model that also provides rupture parameters such as strike, dip, rake, and seismogenic thickness. Our approach is particularly useful for complex seismotectonic settings, such as in cases of lithospheric shear zones, subduction planes, and overlapping multidepth seismogenic volumes.

Deep fluid circulation likely triggered the large extensional events of the 2016–2017 Central Italy seismic sequence. Nevertheless, the connection between fault mechanisms, main crustal-scale thrusts, and the circulation and interaction of fluids with tectonic structures controlling the sequence is still debated. Here, we show that the 3D temporal and spatial mapping of peak delays, proxy of scattering attenuation, detects thrusts and sedimentary structures and their control on fluid overpressure and release. After the mainshocks, scattering attenuation drastically increases across the hanging wall of the Monti Sibillini and Acquasanta thrusts, revealing fracturing and fluid migration. Before the sequence, low-scattering volumes within Triassic formations highlight regions of fluid overpressure, which enhances rock compaction. Our results highlight the control of thrusts and paleogeography on the sequence and hint at the monitoring potential of the technique for the seismic hazard assessment of the Central Apennines and other tectonic regions.

In this paper we present the ground response analyses (GRA) of a site where an industrial facility is planned. Because of its location on an active normal fault system known as a relevant seismic gap, the Mt. Morrone Fault system (MMF), and at the edge of a basin filled with slow velocity continental deposits, a inter-disciplinary and non-standard approach has been applied to assess the seismic input of the dynamic numerical analyses. It includes geological, seismological, geotechnical and engineering contributions. Two fault scenarios, MMF1 and MMF2, were considered and scenario-based (SSHA) and probabilistic (time-dependent, TD, and time-independent, TI) seismic hazard (PSHA) analyses were implemented. Comparison among the spectra corresponding to the 90th percentile of the SSHA statistical distribution and the PSHA average ones, shows that the MMF2 has values similar to the TD model. The SSHA 90th percentile distribution was selected as target spectra to retrieve the seismic input for GRA. Nonlinear numerical simulations of seismic wave propagation were implemented to derive surface ground motion parameters. GRA acceleration response spectra and their PGA are notably higher, and thus on the safety site, than those obtained following the Italian code approach for seismic resistant buildings. These results confirm that a scenario-based methodology can better capture the shaking effect in near-field conditions, avoiding possibly unconservative underestimations of the seismic actions and in view of a more robust performance-based approach used by engineers for either new design and/or assessment/retrofit purposes of the built environment.

We investigate peculiar characteristics of ground motions in Southern Italy (e.g. apparent fast anelastic attenuation and trends of event terms at different periods) using a comprehensive dataset of earthquake recordings between 1969 and 2020. By doing so, we gained insights into the relative performance of eight selected region-specific, global, and global with regional adjustment ground motion models (GMMs). Our analysis is performed using a preliminary dataset (i.e. including all ground motions recorded in the area for the selected analysis period) and an independent dataset (i.e. comprising data not used to develop the models). We analyze total residuals, event terms, within-even residuals, and residuals standardized by model standard deviations (i.e. epsilon). The latter is performed to obtain a robust comparison of GMMs with different standard deviation types and levels. These approaches are employed to ground motion characterization studies for the first time in this region. Our results show that in Southern Italy, there is an apparent anelastic attenuation of the ground motion faster than in other seismic districts. Overall, regional models capture this feature better than global models. Regional adjustments to global models better capture the observed anelastic attenuation at large distances. Using the standardized residuals analysis, we observe that all selected GMMs systematically underestimate the observed ground motion for relatively high ground motion levels and its variability at any intensity levels in the study region. These outcomes may help improving future ground motion models and related engineering applications involving such models in performance-based frameworks.

The Amatrice–Visso–Norcia seismic sequence struck Central Italy across the Apenninic normal fault system in 2016. Fluids likely triggered the sequence and reduced the stability of the fault network following the first earthquake (Amatrice, Mw 6.0), with their migration nucleating the Visso (Mw 5.9) and Norcia (Mw 6.5) mainshocks. However, both spatial extent and mechanisms of fluid migration and diffusion through the network remain unclear. High fluid content, enhanced permeability, and pervasive microcracking increase seismic attenuation, but different processes contribute to different attenuation mechanisms. Here, we measured and mapped peak delay time and coda attenuation, using them as proxies of seismic scattering and absorption before and during the sequence. We observed that the structural discontinuities and lithology control the scattering losses at all frequencies, with the highest scattering delineating carbonate formations within the Gran Sasso massif. The Monti Sibillini thrust marks the strongest contrasts in scattering, indicating a barrier for northward fracture propagation. Absorption does not show any sensitivity to the presence of these main geological structures. Before the sequence, low-frequency high-absorption anomalies distribute around the NW-SE-oriented Apennine Mountain chain. During the sequence, a high-absorption anomaly develops from SSE to NNW across the seismogenic zone but remains bounded north by the Monti Sibillini thrust. We attribute this spatial expansion to the deep migration of CO2-bearing fluids across the strike of the fault network from a deep source of trapped CO2 close to the Amatrice earthquake. Fluids expand SSE-NNW primarily during the Visso sequence and then diffuse across the fault zones during the Norcia sequence.

This research focuses on predicting and assessing earthquake impact due to future scenarios regarding the ground motion seismic hazard by accounting mainly for site effect in the Central Apennines. To this end, we produced synthetic broadband seismograms by adopting a hybrid simulation technique for the Mw6.0 Amatrice earthquake, Central Italy, on 24 August 2016, accounting for site conditions by means of amplification curves, computed with different approaches. Simulations were validated by comparing with data recorded at 57 strong-motion stations, the majority installed in urban areas. This station sample was selected among stations recording the Amatrice earthquake within an epicentral distance of 150 km and potentially prone to experience site amplification effects because of lying in particular site conditions (sedimentary basins, topographic irregularities, and fault zones). The evaluation of amplification curves best suited to describe local effects is of great importance because many towns and villages in central Italy are built in very different geomorphological conditions, from valleys and sedimentary basins to topographies. In order to well reproduce observed ground motions, we accounted for the site amplification effect by testing various generic and empirical amplification curves such as horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios (calculated from Fourier spectra using both earthquake, HVSR, and ambient noise, HVNSR, recordings) and those derived from the generalized inversion technique (GIT). The site amplifications emanated from GIT improve the match between observed and simulated data, especially in the case of stations installed in sedimentary basins, where the empirical amplification curve effectively reproduces spectral peaks. On the contrary, the worst performances are for the spectral ratios between components, even compared to the generic site amplification, although the latter ignores the strong bedrock/soil seismic impedance contrasts. At sites on topography, we did not observe any systematic behavior, the use of empirical curves ameliorating the fit only in a small percentage of cases. These results may provide a valuable framework for developing ground motion models for earthquake seismic hazard assessment and risk mitigation, especially in urban areas located in the seismically active central Italy region.

A very energetic seismic sequence struck the central Apennines, Italy, in 2016–2017, with a series of damaging earthquakes, three of them with moment magnitudes M ≥ 5.9, and five of them with M ≥ 5.0, occurred over a few months between 24 August 2016, and late 2017. Several studies explained the phenomenon of a cascading earthquake sequence with fluid movements that provoked the rupture of different parts of the fault segments at different times and locations (e.g., Miller, Nature, 2004, 427, 724–727; Gabrielli, Frontiers in Earth Science, section Structural Geology and Tectonics, 2022; Malagnini, Frontiers in Earth Science, section Solid Earth Geophysics, 2022). In this study, we investigated the variation of crustal S-wave attenuation in terms of the frequency-dependent quality factor Q(f) before and after the main events (including the Amatrice, Visso, and Norcia subsequences, hereafter, AVN, and periods before and after the AVN multi-mainshock sequence). The spectral characteristics of regional attenuation in the central Apennines, as well as of the earthquake sources of the AVN sequence, are derived through regression analysis using a large set of seismograms; Q(f) is modeled, together with the bilinear geometrical spreading, g(r), using a widely used tool, namely, random vibration theory, RVT (Cartwright and Longuet-Higgins, 1956). The primary objective of this effort was to examine how the variability of crustal anelastic attenuation would impact the earthquake-induced ground motions. The latter is quantified in terms of peak ground accelerations (PGAs), peak ground velocities (PGVs), and pseudo spectral accelerations (PSAs) at 0.3 and 2 s . Here, we showed that the main events of the AVN sequence strongly affect crustal S-wave attenuation, including its frequency dependence. However, the effects of 1/Q(f) fluctuations on earthquake-induced ground motions are small and have a negligible impact on the seismic hazard.

TheMw6.5 Norcia, Italy, earthquake occurred on 30 October 2016 and caused extensive damage to buildings in the epicentral area. The earthquake was recorded by a network of strong-motion stations, including 14 stations located within a 5 km distance from the two causative faults. We used a numerical approach for generating seismic waves from two-hybrid deterministic and stochastic kinematic fault rupture models propagating through a 3D Earth model derived from seismic tomography and local geology. The broadband simulations were performed in the 0–5 Hz frequency range using a physics-based deterministic approach modeling the earthquake rupture and elastic wave propagation. We used SW4, a finite-difference code that uses a conforming curvilinear mesh, designed to model surface topography with high numerical accuracy. The simulations reproduce the amplitude and duration of observed near-fault ground motions. Our results also suggest that due to the local fault-slip pattern and upward rupture directivity, the spatial pattern of the horizontal near-fault ground motion generated during the earthquake was complex and characterized by several local minima and maxima. Some of these local ground-motion maxima in the near-fault region were not observed because of the sparse station coverage. The simulated peak ground velocity (PGV) is higher than both the recorded PGV and predicted PGV based on empirical models for several areas located above the fault planes. Ground motions calculated with and without surface topography indicate that, on average, the local topography amplifies the ground-motion velocity by30%. There is a correlation between the PGV and local topography, with the PGV being higher at hilltops. In contrast, spatial variations of simulated PGA do not correlate with the surface topography. Simulated ground motions are important for seismic hazard and engineering assessments for areas that lack seismic station coverage and historicalrecordings from large damaging earthquakes.