Peltier, Aline

Volcano observatories (VOs) around the world are required to maintain surveillance of their volcanoes and inform civil protection and aviation authorities about impending eruptions. They often work through consolidated procedures to respond to volcanic crises in a timely manner and provide a service to the community aimed at reducing the potential impact of an eruption. Within the International Airways Volcano Watch (IAVW) framework of the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), designated State Volcano Observatories (SVOs) are asked to operate a colour coded system designed to inform the aviation community about the status of a volcano and the expected threats associated. Despite the IAVW documentation defining the different colour-coded levels, operating the aviation colour code in a standardised way is not easy, as sometimes, different SVOs adopt different strategies on how, when, and why to change it. Following two European VOs and Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACs) workshops, the European VOs agreed to present an overview on how they operate the aviation colour code. The comparative analysis presented here reveals that not all VOs in Europe use this system as part of their operational response, mainly because of a lack of volcanic eruptions since the aviation colour code was officially established, or the absence of a formal designation as an SVO. We also note that the VOs that do regularly use aviation colour code operate it differently depending on the frequency and styles of eruptions, the historical eruptive activity, the nature of the unrest, the monitoring level, institutional norms, previous experiences, and on the agreement they may have with the local Air Transport Navigation providers. This study shows that even though the aviation colour code system was designed to provide a standard, its usage strongly depends on the institutional subjectivity in responding to volcano emergencies. Some common questions have been identified across the different (S)VOs that will need to be addressed by ICAO to have a more harmonised approach and usage of the aviation colour code

Formalised elicitation of expert judgements has been used in recent years to help tackle several problematic societal issues, including volcanic crises and pandemic threats. We present an expert elicitation exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island, held remotely in April 2021. This involved twenty-eight experts from nine countries who considered a hypothetical effusive eruption crisis involving a new vent opening in a high-risk area. The tele-elicitation presented several challenges, but is a promising and workable option for application to future volcanic crises. Our exercise considered an “uncommon” eruptive scenario with a vent outside the present caldera and within inhabited areas, and provided uncertainty ranges for several hazard-related questions for such a scenario (e.g. probability of eruption within a defined timeframe; elapsed time until lava flow reaches a critical location, and other hazard management issues). Our exercise indicated that such a scenario would probably present very different characteristics than the eruptions observed in recent decades, and that it is fundamental to include well prepared expert elicitations in updated civil protection evacuation plans to improve disaster response procedures.

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In March 2020, the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization and became a global health crisis. Authorities worldwide implemented lockdowns to restrict travel and social exchanges in a global effort to counter the pandemic. In France, and in French overseas departments, the lockdown was effective from 17 March to 11 May 2020. It was in this context that the 2–6 April 2020 eruption of Piton de la Fournaise (La Réunion Island, Indian Ocean) took place. Upon the announcement of the lockdown in France, a reduced activity plan was set up by the Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, which manages the Observatoire Volcanologique du Piton de la Fournaise (OVPF). The aim was to (1) maintain remote mon- itoring operations by teleworking and (2) authorize fieldwork only for critical reasons, such as serious breakdowns of stations or transmission relays. This eruption provided an opportunity for the observatory to validate its capacity to manage a volcanic crisis with 100% remotely operated monitoring networks. We thus present the long- and short-term precursors to the eruption, and the evolution of the eruption recorded using the real-time monitoring data as communicated to the stakeholders. The data were from both continuously recording and transmitting field instruments as well as satellites. The volcano observatory staff remotely managed the volcano crisis with the various stake- holders based only on these remotely functioning networks. Monitoring duties were also assured in the absence of ad hoc field investigation of the eruption by observatory staff or face-to-face communications. The density and reliability of the OVPF networks, com- bined with satellite observations, allowed for trustworthy instrument-based monitoring of the eruption and continuity of the OVPF duties in issuing regular updates of volcanic activity in the context of a double crisis: volcanic and health.

Piton de la Fournaise, situated on La Réunion island (France), is one of the most active hot spot basaltic shield volcanoes worldwide, experiencing at least two eruptions per year since the establishment of the volcanological observatory in 1979. Eruptions are typically fissure-fed and form extensive lava flow fields. About 95¯% of some g1/4¯250 historical events (since the first confidently dated eruption in 1708) have occurred inside an uninhabited horseshoe-shaped caldera (hereafter referred to as the Enclos), which is open to the ocean on its eastern side. Rarely (12 times since the 18th century), fissures have opened outside of the Enclos, where housing units, population centers, and infrastructure are at risk. In such a situation, lava flow hazard maps are a useful way of visualizing lava flow inundation probabilities over large areas. Here, we present the up-to-date lava flow hazard map for Piton de la Fournaise based on (i) vent distribution, (ii) lava flow recurrence times, (iii) statistics of lava flow lengths, and (iv) simulations of lava flow paths using the DOWNFLOW stochastic numerical model. The map of the entire volcano highlights the spatial distribution probability of future lava flow invasion for the medium to long term (years to decades). It shows that the most probable location for future lava flow is within the Enclos (where there are areas with up to 12¯% probability), a location visited by more than 100¯000 visitors every year. Outside of the Enclos, probabilities reach 0.5¯% along the active rift zones. Although lava flow hazard occurrence in inhabited areas is deemed to be very low (<¯0.1¯%), it may be underestimated as our study is only based on post-18th century records and neglects older events. We also provide a series of lava flow hazard maps inside the Enclos, computed on a multi-temporal (i.e., regularly updated) topography. Although hazard distribution remains broadly the same over time, some changes are noticed throughout the analyzed periods due to improved digital elevation model (DEM) resolution, the high frequency of eruptions that constantly modifies the topography, and the lava flow dimensional characteristics and paths. The lava flow hazard map for Piton de la Fournaise presented here is reliable and trustworthy for long-term hazard assessment and land use planning and management. Specific hazard maps for short-term hazard assessment (e.g., for responding to volcanic crises) or considering the cycles of activity at the volcano and different event scenarios (i.e., events fed by different combinations of temporally evolving superficial and deep sources) are required for further assessment of affected areas in the future - especially by atypical but potentially extremely hazardous large-volume eruptions. At such an active site, our method supports the need for regular updates of DEMs and associated lava flow hazard maps if we are to be effective in keeping up to date with mitigation of the associated risks.

Volcanic activity is always accompanied by the transfer of heat from the Earth’s crust to the atmosphere. This heat can be measured from space and its measurement is a very useful tool for detecting volcanic activity on a global scale. MIROVA (Middle Infrared Observation of Volcanic Activity) is an automatic volcano hot spot detection system, based on the analysis of MODIS data (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). The system is able to detect, locate and quantify thermal anomalies in near real-time, by providing, on a dedicated website (www.mirovaweb.it), infrared images and thermal flux time-series on over 200 volcanoes worldwide. Thanks to its simple interface and intuitive representation of the data, MIROVA is currently used by several volcano observatories for daily monitoring activities and reporting. In this paper, we present the architecture of the system and we provide a state of the art on satellite thermal data usage for operational volcano monitoring and research. In particular, we describe the contribution that the thermal data have provided in order to detect volcanic unrest, to forecast eruptions and to depict trends and patterns during eruptive crisis. The current limits and requirements to improve the quality of the data, their distribution and interpretation are also discussed, in the light of the experience gained in recent years within the volcanological community. The results presented clearly demonstrate how the open access of satellite thermal data and the sharing of derived products allow a better understanding of ongoing volcanic phenomena, and therefore constitute an essential requirement for the assessment of volcanic hazards.

Satellite‐based surveillance of volcanic hot spots and plumes can be coupled with modeling to allow ensemble‐based approaches to crisis response. We complete benchmark tests on an effusive crisis response protocol aimed at delivering product for use in tracking lava flows. The response involves integration of four models: MIROVA for discharge rate (TADR), the ASTER urgent response protocol for delivery of high‐spatial resolution satellite data, DOWNFLOW for flow path projections, and PyFLOWGO for flow run‐out. We test the protocol using the data feed available during Piton de la Fournaise’s April–May 2018 eruption, with product being delivered to the Observatoire du Piton de la Fournaise via Google Drive. The response was initialized by an alert at 19:50Z on 27 April 2018. Initially DOWNFLOW‐FLOWGO were run using TADRs typical of Piton de la Fournaise, and revealed that flow at >120 m 3 /s could reach the island belt road. The first TADR (10– 20 m 3 /s) was available at 09:55Z on 28 April, and gave flow run‐outs of 1180–2510 m. The latency between satellite overpass and TADR provision was 105 minutes, with the model result being posted 15 minutes later. An InSAR image pair was completed six hours after the eruption began, and gave a flow length of 1.8 km; validating the run‐out projection. Thereafter, run‐outs were updated with each new TADR, and checked against flow lengths reported from InSAR and ASTER mapping. In all, 35 TADRs and 15 InSAR image pairs were processed during the 35‐day‐long eruption, and 11 ASTER images were delivered.

In recent decades, soil CO2 flux measurements have been often used in both volcanic and seismically active areas to investigate the interconnections between temporal and spatial anomalies in degassing and telluric activities. In this study, we focus on a narrow degassing area of the Piton de la Fournaise volcano, that has been chosen for its proximity and link with the frequently active volcanic area. Our aim is to constrain the degassing in this narrow area and identify the potential processes involved in both spatial and temporal soil CO2 variations in order to provide an enhanced monitoring strategy for soil CO2 flux. We performed a geophysical survey (self-potential measurements: SP; electrical resistivity tomography: ERT) to provide a high-resolution description of the subsurface. We identified one main SP negative anomaly dividing the area in two zones. Based on these results, we set ten control points, from the site of the main SP negative anomaly up to 230 m away, where soil CO2 fluxes were weekly measured during one year of intense eruptive activity at Piton de la Fournaise. Our findings show that lateral and vertical soil heterogeneities and structures exert a strong control on the degassing pattern. We find that temporal soil CO2 flux series at control points close to the main SP negative anomaly better record variations linked to the volcanic activity. We also show that the synchronicity between the increase of soil CO2 flux and deep seismicity can be best explained by a pulsed process pushing out the CO2 already stored and fractionated in the system. Importantly, our findings show that low soil CO2 fluxes and low carbon isotopic signature are able to track variations of volcanic activity in the same way as high fluxes and high carbon isotopic signature do. This result gives important insights in terms of monitoring strategy of volcanic and seismotectonic areas in geodynamics contexts characterized by difficult environmental operational conditions as commonly met in tropical area

Persistent motion of the south flank of Kilauea Volcano, Hawai'i, has been known for several decades, but has only recently been identified at other large basaltic volcanoes-namely Piton de la Fournaise (La Reunion) and Etna (Sicily)-thanks to the advent of space geodetic techniques. Nevertheless, understanding of long-term flank instability is based largely on the example of Kilauea, despite the large differences in the manifestations and mechanisms of the process when viewed through a comparative lens. For example, the rate of flank motion at Kilauea is several times that of Etna and Piton de la Fournaise and is accommodated on a slip plane several km deeper than is probably present at the other two volcanoes. Gravitational spreading also appears to be the dominant driving force at Kilauea, given the long-term steady motion of the volcano's south flank regardless of eruptive/intrusive activity, whereas magmatic activity plays a larger role in flank deformation at Etna and Piton de la Fournaise. Kilauea and Etna, however, are both characterized by heavily faulted flanks, while Piton de la Fournaise shows little evidence for flank faulting. A helpful means of understanding the spectrum of persistent flank motion at large basaltic edifices may be through a framework defined on one hand by magmatic activity (which encompasses both magma supply and edifice size), and on the other hand by the structural setting of the volcano (especially the characteristics of the subvolcanic basement or subhorizontal intravolcanic weak zones). A volcano's size and magmatic activity will dictate the extent to which gravitational and magmatic forces can drive motion of an unstable flank (and possibly the level of faulting of that flank), while the volcano's structural setting governs whether or not a plane of weakness exists beneath or within the edifice and can facilitate flank slip. Considering persistent flank instability using this conceptual model is an alternative to using a single volcano as a "type example"-especially given that the example is usually Kilauea, which defines an extreme end of the spectrum-and can provide a basis for understanding why flank motion may or may not exist on other large basaltic volcanoes worldwide.

Detecting renewal of volcanic activity is a challenging task and even more difficult in tropical settings. Continuous measurements of soil CO2 flux were carried out at the Piton de la Fournaise volcano during 2013–2016. Since this site is in the tropics, periods of heavy rainfall are in the norm. Measurements covered volcanic unrest after a hiatus of 3.5 years. We find that while temperature has the strongest effect, extreme rainfall causes short-term noise. When corrected and filtered from the environmental influence, soil CO2 time series permit to detect a major deep magmatic event during March–April 2014, 3 months before the first eruption of the new activity phase. Correlation with geophysical data sets allows timing of further stages ofupwardfluidascent.OurstudyvalidatessoilCO2fluxmonitoringintropicalenvironmentsasavaluabletoolto monitor magma transfer and to enhance understanding of volcano unrest down to the lithospheric mantle.