Sabbarese, Carlo

Stromboli (Italy) is an open-vent volcano with persistent explosive activity producing up to five hundred mild explosions per day. Fluctuations in explosion intensity, varying even by orders of magnitude in terms of emitted volume and their subsequent impact on the surrounding regions, sometimes occur abruptly. Consequently, identifying precursors of larger eruptive activities, particularly for more intense (paroxysmal) explosions, is challenging. In order to search for anomalies in the pre-paroxysm activity related to the summer 2019 eruption, we applied a hybrid method to the automatic analysis of geophysical and geochemical time series. This approach is based on the combination of two methods: 1. the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and 2. the Support Vector Regression (SVR). The aggregation of these two methods allowed us to identify anomalies in the patterns of the geophysical and geochemical parameters measured on Stromboli in a ten-month period including the July–August 2019 eruption. The results of this study are encouraging for an improvement of the monitoring systems and for volcano early warning applications.

The study concerns the analysis of 220Rn (thoron) recorded in the surface soil in two sites of the Campi Flegrei caldera (Naples, Southern Italy) characterized by phases of volcanic unrest in the seven-year period 1 July 2011–31 December 2017. Thoron comes only from the most surface layer, so the characteristics of its time series are strictly connected to the shallow phenomena, which can also act at a distance from the measuring point in these particular areas. Since we measured 220Rn in parallel with 222Rn (radon), we found that by using the same analysis applied to radon, we obtained interesting information. While knowing the limits of this radioisotope well, we highlight only the particular characteristics of the emissions of thoron in the surface soil. Here, we show that it also shows some clear features found in the radon signal, such as anomalies and signal trends. Consequently, we provide good evidence that, in spite of the very short life of 220Rn compared to 222Rn, both are related to the carrier effect of CO2, which has significantly increased in the last few years within the caldera. The hydrothermal alterations, induced by the increase in temperature and pressure of the caldera system, occur in the surface soils and significantly influence thoron’s power of exhalation from the surface layer. The effects on the surface thoron are reflected in both sites, but with less intensity, the same behavior of 222Rn following the increasing movements and fluctuations of the geophysical and geochemical parameters (CO2 flux, fumarolic tremor, background seismicity, soil deformation). An overall linear correlation was found between the 222−220Rn signals, indicating the effect of the CO2 vector. The overall results represent a significant step forward in the use and interpretation of the thoron signal.

This paper reports the analysis of soil 222Rn data recorded over 7-years in the volcanic caldera of Campi Flegrei (Naples-Italy). The relationship between Radon activity concentration and several geophysical, geochemical and meteorological parameters, influencing the gas emissions, is estimated by the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) method. The analysis goals are: the estimation (replication) of the Radon time series from influencing parameters, the forecasting of an unknown part of it, and the search for anomalies. Results prove: (i) the effectiveness of the ANN method; (ii) Radon follow the periods of agitation of the caldera, demonstrated by the comparison with previous works using different methods.

This is a seven-year study (1/7/2011-31/12/2017) of radon monitoring at two sites of Campi Flegrei caldera (Neaples, Southern Italy) that in the last 70 years experienced repeated phases of volcanic unrest. The sites are equipped with devices for radon detection, based on the spectrometry analysis of the α-particles of radon daughters. A hybrid method, as combination of three known methods, is applied for the identification of residuals (anomalies) and trends of the time series of Radon. The results are compared with the following indicators of current caldera unrest: the tremor caused by the major fumarolic vent registered by a seismic station; the cumulative of background seismicity; the maximum vertical deformation acquired by GPS networks during the current phase of uplift; the temperature-pressure of the hydrothermal system estimated based on gas geo-indicators. The comparisons show strong correlation among independent signals and suggest that the extension of the area affected by current Campi Flegrei crisis is larger than the area of seismicity and of intense hydrothermal activity from which the radon stations are 1-4 km away. These results represent an absolute novelty in the study of a such calderic area and mark a significant step forward in the use and interpretation of the radon signal.

La realizzazione della stazione descritta nel presente rapporto è frutto di una collaborazione tra ricercatori della Sezione di Napoli dell’ Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN) e ricercatori dell’Osservatorio Vesuviano (OV), Sezione di Napoli dell’Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), e costituisce un’attività sperimentale per il monitoraggio dell’attività vulcanica dei Campi Flegrei.

Radon migration along vertical profiles in the soils of Irno River alluvial Valley (Southern Italy) was studied using radioactive disequilibrium between 226 Ra and 210 Pb. Fractional Radon loss, migration length, diffusion and emanation coefficient and Radon flux density were determined. Our results are in agreement with a migra- tion model by simple diffusion. The migration parameters are within typical values, except the Radon flux density, which is about one order of magnitude higher than the values reported in literature. The values of fractional Radon loss are sensitive to changes in the physical properties of the soil.