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Vichi, Marcello
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Vichi, Marcello
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- PublicationRestrictedClimatic trends of the equatorial undercurrent: A backup mechanism for sustaining the equatorial Pacific production(2013-07)
; ; ; ; ;Ruggio, R.; Dipartimento di Scienze e Tecnologie Biologiche ed Ambientali, Università del Salento ;Vichi, M.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Paparella, F.; Dipartimento di Matematica e Fisica E. De Giorgi, Universitá del Salento ;Masina, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia; ; ; The Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) is the major source of iron to the equatorial Pacific and it is sensitive to climatic changes as other components of the tropical Pacific. This work proposes a methodology based on a Lagrangian approach aimed at understanding the changes in the transport of iron rich waters to the EUC in a future climate change scenario, using climate model data from an Earth system model. A selected set of regions from the northern and southern extra-equatorial Pacific has been chosen. These regions are charac- terized by the presence of iron sources from continental shelf processes like the Papua New Guinea region and atmospheric deposition like the northern subtropical gyre. The trajectories that reach the EUC during the 20th and the 21st century departing from these areas have been analyzed using a set of statistics designed to determine variations in the amount of transport and in the travel times of the water masses. The transport of waters to the EUC from the north Pacific subtropical gyre and from the Bismarck Sea is projected to increase during the 21st century. The increase is particularly significant for water masses from the northern subtropical gyre, with travel times lower than 10 years in the second half of the 21st century. This increased interaction between the extra-tropics and the EUC may bring additional iron-rich waters in the high-nutrient low-chlorophyll region of the equatorial Pacific compatibly with the significant increase of the simulated net primary production found in the biogeochemical model, thus partly offsetting the anticipated decrease of production implied by the surface warming354 99 - PublicationRestrictedSensitivity of a marine coupled physical biogeochemical model to time resolution, integration scheme and time splitting method(2012)
; ; ; ;Butenschön, M.; University of Bologna ;Zavatarelli, M.; University of Bologna ;Vichi, M.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia; ; Coupled marine biogeochemical models are composed of a hydrodynamic component with a transport model for the ecological state variables and a model for the biogeochemical dynamics. The combination of these components involves the implementation of a numerical coupling method, that performs the spatial–temporal integration of the combined system, introducing an additional source of error to the system (splitting error). In this article we demonstrate the sensitivity of a comparatively complex 1D hydrodynamical biogeochemical model to the coupling method, showing that for an inadequate choice of the coupling method, the splitting error may dominate the numerical error of the system. It is demonstrated that for this type of system the tracer transport time scale clearly dominates over the scale of the biogeochemical processes, that maybe computed on significantly coarser time scales. In between the implemented coupling schemes Operator Splitting and Source Splitting, the Source Splitting method inserting the biogeochemical rates into the transport tracer integration is to be preferred for these type of models.302 55 - PublicationOpen AccessStrengthening of the hydrological cycle in future scenarios: atmospheric energy and water balance perspective(2012)
; ; ; ; ;Alessandri, A.; ENEA ;Fogli, P. G.; CMCC ;Vichi, M.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Zeng, N.; University of Mariland; ; ; Future climate scenarios experiencing global warming are expected to strengthen the hydrological cycle during the 21st century (21C). We analyze the strengthening of the global-scale increase in precipitation from the perspective of changes in whole atmospheric water and energy balances. By combining energy and water equations for the whole atmosphere, we obtain constraints for the changes in surface fluxes and partitioning at the surface between sensible and latent components. We investigate the differences in the strengthening of the hydrological cycle in two centennial simulations performed with an Earth system model forced with specified atmospheric concentration pathways. Alongside the Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES) A1B, which is a medium-high non-mitigation scenario, we consider a new aggressive-mitigation scenario (E1) with reduced fossil fuel use for energy production aimed at stabilizing global warming below 2 K. Our results show that the mitigation scenario effectively constrains the global warming with a stabilization below 2 K with respect to the 1950–2000 historical period. On the other hand, the E1 precipitation does not follow the temperature field toward a stabilization path but continues to increase over the mitigation period. Quite unexpectedly, the mitigation scenario is shown to strengthen the hydrological cycle even more than SRES A1B till around 2070. We show that this is mostly a consequence of the larger increase in the negative radiative imbalance of atmosphere in E1 compared to A1B. This appears to be primarily related to decreased sulfate aerosol concentration in E1, which considerably reduces atmospheric absorption of solar radiation compared to A1B. The last decades of the 21C show a marked increase in global precipitation in A1B compared to E1, despite the fact that the two scenarios display almost the same overall increase of radiative imbalance with respect to the 20th century. Our results show that radiative cooling is weakly effective in A1B throughout the 21C. Two distinct mechanisms characterize the diverse strengthening of the hydrological cycle in the middle and end- 21C. It is only through a very large perturbation of surface fluxes that A1B achieves a larger increase in global precipitation in the last decades of the 21C. Our energy/water budget analysis shows that this behavior is ultimately due to a bifurcation in the Bowen ratio change between the two scenarios. This work warns that mitigation policies that promote aerosol abatement, may lead to an unexpected stronger intensification of the hydrological cycle and associated changes that may last for decades after global warming is effectively mitigated. On the other hand, it is also suggested that predictable components of the radiative forcing by aerosols may have the potential to effectively contribute to the decadal-scale predictability of changes in the hydrological strength.436 240 - PublicationRestrictedProcess studies on the ecological coupling between sea ice algae and phytoplankton(2012)
; ; ; ;Tedesco, L.; Marine Research Centre, Finnish Environment Institute ;Vichi, M.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Thomas, D.; Marine Research Centre, Finnish Environment Institute; ; The seasonal dynamics of pelagic and sea ice communities are closely related in ice-covered waters, however, modelling works that analyse such interactions are scarce. We use the Biogeochemical Flux Model in Sea Ice (BFM-SI) coupled to the pelagic Biogeochemical Flux Model (BFM) in a study area in Greenland to quantitatively investigate: (1) the significance of photoacclimation/photoadaptation strategies of autotrophs, (2) the fate of the sea ice biomass in case of algae seeding, algae aggregation and at different mixed layer depths and (3) the changes in community production under a climate change scenario. The results show that sea ice algae need to be both photoacclimated and photoadapted to the sea ice environment in order to grow, while phytoplankton may adopt different strategies for optimising their growth. The seeding of the phytoplankton bloom shows to be driven, both in timing and magnitude, by the viability of sea ice algae and by the degree of aggregation of algae released from the ice, which also affects the sinking rate to the sea floor. Under a mild climate change scenario (SRES B2, 2071–2090) the sea ice community is projected to be generally more productive, whereas phytoplankton growth will be reduced because the melt of sea ice will occur earlier in the season when light is less favourable to sustain the growth. While it is generally anticipated that the melting of multi-year ice in the Arctic Ocean will cause an increase in marine production, this study shows that seasonal ice-covered seas in the Northern hemisphere may actually be less productive and may shift to more oligotrophic conditions within the next 100 years.477 113 - PublicationRestrictedImpacts of natural and anthropogenic climate variations on North Pacific plankton in an Earth System Model(2012)
; ; ; ;Patara, L.; CMCC ;Vichi, M.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Masina, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia; ; The impacts of natural atmospheric variability and anthropogenic climate change on the spatial distribution, seasonality, structure, and productivity of North Pacific plankton groups are investigated by means of an Earth System Model (ESM) that contains a plankton model with variable stoichiometry. The ESM is forced with observed greenhouse gases for the 20th century and with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B Emission Scenario for the 21st century. The impacts of the two main modes of variability – connected with the Aleutian Low (AL) strength and with the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) – are considered. When the AL is strong, primary productivity and chlorophyll concentrations are higher in the central Pacific, the seasonality of plankton is enhanced, and the classical grazing chain is stimulated, whereas in the Alaskan Gyre the model simulates a chlorophyll decrease and a shift toward smaller phytoplankton species. A stronger NPO increases productivity and chlorophyll concentration at ∼45°N. In the anthropogenic climate change scenario, simulated sea surface temperature is 4 °C higher with respect to contemporary conditions, leading to reduced mixing and nutrient supply at middle-subpolar latitudes. The seasonal phytoplankton bloom is reduced and occurs one month earlier, the flow of carbon to the microbial loop is enhanced, and phytoplanktonic stoichiometry is nutrient-depleted. Primary productivity is enhanced at subpolar latitudes, due to increased ice-free regions and possibly to temperature-related photosynthesis stimulation. This study highlights that natural climate variability may act alternatively to strengthen or to weaken the human-induced impacts, and that in the next decades it will be difficult to distinguish between internal and external climate forcing on North Pacific plankton groups.369 85 - PublicationRestrictedGlobal response to solar radiation absorbed by phytoplankton in a coupled climate model(2012)
; ; ; ; ; ;Patara, L.; CMCC ;Vichi, M.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Masina, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Fogli, P. G.; CMCC ;Manzini, E.; MPI; ; ; ; The global climate response to solar radiation absorbed by phytoplankton is investigated by performing multi-century simulations with a coupled ocean–atmosphere-biogeochemistry model. The absorption of solar radiation by phytoplankton increases radiative heating in the near-surface ocean and raises sea surface temperature (SST) by overall ~0.5°C. The resulting increase in evaporation enhances specific atmospheric humidity by 2–5%, thereby increasing the Earth’s greenhouse effect and the atmospheric temperatures. The Hadley Cell exhibits a weakening and poleward expansion, therefore reducing cloudiness at subtropical-middle latitudes and increasing it at tropical latitudes except near the Equator. Higher SST at polar latitudes reduces sea ice cover and albedo, thereby increasing the high-latitude ocean absorption of solar radiation. Changes in the atmospheric baroclinicity cause a poleward intensification of mid-latitude westerly winds in both hemispheres. As a result, the North Atlantic Ocean meridional overturning circulation extends more northward, and the equatorward Ekman transport is enhanced in the Southern Ocean. The combination of local and dynamical processes decreases upper-ocean heat content in the Tropics and in the subpolar Southern Ocean, and increases it at middle latitudes. This study highlights the relevance of coupled ocean–atmosphere processes in the global climate response to phytoplankton solar absorption. Given that simulated impacts of phytoplankton on physical climate are within the range of natural climate variability, this study suggests the importance of phytoplankton as an internal constituent of the Earth’s climate and its potential role in participating in its long-term climate adjustments.451 117 - PublicationRestrictedEffects of Tropical Cyclones on Ocean Heat Transport in a High-Resolution Coupled General Circulation Model(2011-08)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;Scoccimarro, E.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Gualdi, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Bellucci, A.; CMCC ;Sanna, A.; CMCC ;Fogli, P. G.; CMCC ;Vichi, M.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Oddo, P.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Navarra, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia; ; ; ; ; ; ; In this paper the interplay between tropical cyclones (TCs) and the Northern Hemispheric ocean heat transport (OHT) is investigated. In particular, results from a numerical simulation of the twentieth-century and twenty-first-century climates, following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) twentieth- century run (20C3M) and A1B scenario protocols, respectively, have been analyzed. The numerical simulations have been performed using a state-of-the-art global atmosphere–ocean–sea ice coupled general circulation model (CGCM) with relatively high-resolution (T159) in the atmosphere. The CGCM skill in reproducing a realistic TC climatology has been assessed by comparing the model results from the simulation of the twentieth century with available observations. The model simulates tropical cyclone–like vortices with many features similar to the observed TCs. Specifically, the simulated TCs exhibit realistic structure, geographical distribution, and interannual variability, indicating that the model is able to capture the basic mechanisms linking the TC activity with the large-scale circulation. The cooling of the surface ocean observed in correspondence of the TCs is well simulated by the model. TC activity is shown to significantly increase the poleward OHT out of the tropics and decrease the poleward OHT from the deep tropics on short time scales. This effect, investigated by looking at the 100 most intense Northern Hemisphere TCs, is strongly correlated with the TC-induced momentum flux at the ocean surface, where the winds associated with the TCs significantly weaken (strengthen) the trade winds in the 58–188N (188–308N) latitude belt. However, the induced perturbation does not impact the yearly averaged OHT. The frequency and intensity of the TCs appear to be substantially stationary through the entire 1950–2069 simulated period, as does the effect of the TCs on the OHT.149 33 - PublicationRestrictedGlobal and regional ocean carbon uptake and climate change: sensitivity to a substantial mitigation scenario(2011-05)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;Vichi, M.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Manzini, E.; MPI, Hamburg ;Fogli, P. G.; CMCC ;Alessandri, A.; ENEA ;Patara, L.; CMCC ;Scoccimarro, E.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Masina, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Navarra, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia; ; ; ; ; ; ; Under future scenarios of business-as-usual emissions, the ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon is anticipated to decrease because of ocean chemistry con- straints and positive feedbacks in the carbon-climate dynamics, whereas it is still unknown how the oceanic carbon cycle will respond to more substantial mitigation scenarios. To evaluate the natural system response to pre- scribed atmospheric ‘‘target’’ concentrations and assess the response of the ocean carbon pool to these values, 2 cen- tennial projection simulations have been performed with an Earth System Model that includes a fully coupled carbon cycle, forced in one case with a mitigation scenario and the other with the SRES A1B scenario. End of century ocean uptake with the mitigation scenario is projected to return to the same magnitude of carbon fluxes as simulated in 1960 in the Pacific Ocean and to lower values in the Atlantic. With A1B, the major ocean basins are instead projected to decrease the capacity for carbon uptake globally as found with simpler carbon cycle models, while at the regional level the response is contrasting. The model indicates that the equatorial Pacific may increase the carbon uptake rates in both scenarios, owing to enhancement of the biological carbon pump evidenced by an increase in Net Community Production (NCP) following changes in the subsurface equatorial circulation and enhanced iron availability from extratropical regions. NCP is a proxy of the bulk organic carbon made available to the higher trophic levels and potentially exportable from the surface layers. The model results indicate that, besides the localized increase in the equatorial Pacific, the NCP of lower trophic levels in the northern Pacific and Atlantic oceans is projected to be halved with respect to the current climate under a sub- stantial mitigation scenario at the end of the twenty-first century. It is thus suggested that changes due to cumulative carbon emissions up to present and the projected concen- tration pathways of aerosol in the next decades control the evolution of surface ocean biogeochemistry in the second half of this century more than the specific pathways of atmospheric CO2 concentrations.277 23 - PublicationRestrictedImpact of appendicularians on detritus and export fluxes: a model approach at Dyfamed site(2011)
; ; ; ; ; ;Berline, L.; LOB ;Stemman, L.; LOB ;Vichi, M.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Lombard, F.; LOPB ;Gorsky, G.; LOB; ; ; ; So far, the role of appendicularians in the biogeochemical cycling of organic matter has been largely overlooked. Appendicularians represent only a fraction of total mesozooplankton biomass, however these ubiquitous zooplankters have very high filtration and growth rates compared to copepods, and produce numerous fecal pellets and filtering houses contributing to export production by aggregating small marine particles. To study their quantitative impact on biogeochemical flux, we have included this group in the biogeochemical flux model, using a recently developed ecophysiological model. One-dimensional annual simulations of the pelagic ecosystem including appendicularians were conducted with realistic surface forcing for the year 2000, using data from the DyFAMed open ocean station. The appendicularian grazing impact was generally low, but appendicularians increased detritus production by 8% and export production by 55% compared to a simulation without appendicularians. Therefore, current biogeochemical models lacking appendicularians probably under, or misestimate the detritus and export production by omitting the pathway from small-sized plankton to fast sinking detritus. Detritus production and export rates are 60% lower than the estimates from mesotrophic sites, showing that appendicularians’ role is lower but still significant in oligotrophic environments. The simulated annual export at 200 m exceeds sediment trap values by 44%, suggesting an intense degradation during the sinking of appendicularian detritus, supported by observations made at other sites. Thus, degradation and grazing of appendicularian detritus need better quantification if we are to accurately assess the role of appendicularia in export flux.264 24 - PublicationRestrictedThe emergence of ocean biogeochemical provinces: a quantitative assessment and a diagnostic for model evaluation.(2011)
; ; ; ; ;Vichi, M.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Allen, J. I.; PML ;Masina, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Hardman-Mountford, N.; PML; ; ; The concept of ocean biogeochemical provinces is based on the observation that large ocean regions are characterized by coherent physical forcing and environmental conditions, which are eventually representative of macroscale ocean ecosystems. Biogeochemical models of the global ocean focus on simulating the coupling between prevalent physical conditions and the biogeochemical processes with the assumption that biological properties respond coherently to physics and therefore should produce such provinces as an emergent property. In this paper, we quantitatively assess the emergence of a reference set of predefined biogeochemical provinces in the available global data sets and propose a province‐based approach to the evaluation of one of the most comprehensive models of ocean biogeochemistry. Multivariate statistical tools were applied to model and observation data, verifying the existence, distinctiveness and reliability of the predefined provinces and quantifying the correlation of model results with observations at the global scale. The analysis of similarity between provinces shows that they are statistically separable in data and model output and therefore can be used as reliable metrics. The analyses indicate that provinces can be more easily distinguished in terms of their environmental features rather than using chlorophyll concentration. The characterization of provinces by means of chlorophyll values shows a significant overlap in both the Sea‐viewing Wide Field‐of‐view Sensor (SeaWiFS) data and the model. It is likely this is related to the choice of province boundaries based on coarse‐resolution mapped data, which are not necessarily the same as those derivable from high‐resolution satellite data. We also demonstrated through cluster analysis that the long‐term time series data collected at Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS) stations are representative of environmental conditions of the respective province and can thus be used to evaluate model results extracted from that province. The method shows promise for helping to overcome problems with model verification due to under sampling of most ocean biogeochemical variables but also gives indications that unsupervised clustering may be required when more spatially resolved data and models are available.392 83
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