Reicherter, Klaus

The largest earthquake in the Zagros Mountains struck the city of Azgeleh on the Iran–Iraq border on 12 November 2017. This Mw 7.3 earthquake was followed by an intense seismic sequence. Implementing the double-difference earthquake location technique, we relocate 1069 events recorded by our local seismic network, deployed after the mainshock. The spatial distribution of the epicenters indicates linear alignments of the events nucleated along at least four notable clusters. The clusters are characterized by at least one significant earthquake, such as the Tazehabad earthquake of 25 August 2018 (Mw 5.9) along a dense, east–west trending cluster and the Sarpol-e Zahab earthquake of 25 November 2018 (Mw 6.3) along the cluster with a northeast–southwest trend. We use two-pass differential SAR interferometry (DInSAR) and Small BAseline Subset (SBAS) methods to study the coseismic permanent displacements of the Azgeleh, Tazehabad and Sarpol-e Zahab events as well as the one-year postseismic deformation field of the 2017–2018 seismic sequence, respectively. We use non-linear and linear optimization algorithms to derive the source geometry and the slip distribution along the fault planes. The inversion is conducted by introducing also seismological constraints, leading to the definition of a listric geometry for the Azgeleh mainshock rupture that accommodates the slip area at depth of 10–16 km along a sub-horizontal plane (dipping ~3°) and a low-angle (~16°) ramp. The thrust and dextral movements along this NNW-striking (~345°) fault have triggered a tear fault responsible for the Tazehabad event ruptured an east–west trending (~267°), north-dipping (~78°) sinistral shear fault. We present the dextral slip distribution of the Sarpol-e Zahab event along a NE-striking (~34°) fault, as a synthetic Riedel structure for the southern segment of the Khanaqin fault, dipping 63° to the southeast. We find the postseismic deformation field associated with the seismic sequence is not confined only to the mainshock source (the Azgeleh fault), but also develops along the Tazehabad and Sarpol-e Zahab faults. We additionally propose afterslip along a duplex, flat-ramp-flat structure down-dip and up-dip of the Azgeleh coseismic slip area. The up-dip afterslip develops onto the shallow detachment (~3°) at depth of ~8 km and the down-dip afterslip propagate onto the mid-crustal décollement level within the Pan-African basement. The Azgeleh, Tazehabad, Sarpol-e Zahab and Khanaqin faults mark the Lurestan Arc–Kirkuk Embayment sharp margin in the Northwest Zagros and play a key role in the lateral escape of the Lurestan Salient and vertical strain partitioning in the Zagros front.

After the 2004 Indian Ocean (IOT) and the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunamis, new research in tsunami-related fields was strongly stimulated worldwide and also in the Mediterranean. This research growth yields substantial advancements in tsunami knowledge. Among these advancements is the “Paleotsunami” research that has marked particular progress on the reconstruction of the tsunami history of a region. As an integration of the historical documentation available in the Mediterranean and the Gulf of Cadiz areas, geological and geoarchaeological records provide the insights to define the occurrence, characteristics, and impact of tsunamis of the past. Here, we present the recent advancements done for both the onshore and offshore realms. As for the onshore, we discuss case studies dealing with recent high-resolution works based on: a) direct push in situ sensing techniques, applied to identification and characterization of typical paleotsunami deposits features; b) combined XRF- X-CT approach, implemented for the identification of fine-scale sedimentary structures useful for the definition of the causative flow dynamics; c) the geoarchaeological “new field” contribution, with the development of specific diagnostic criteria in search for tsunami impact traces in archaeological strata; d) comparison of multiple dating methods and of different modeling codes for the definition of the potential source for the displacement of boulders of exceptional dimension, identified by 3D size calculation. As for the offshore advancements, we present case studies focusing on the recognition of tsunami deposits and their sedimentary traces in the geological record from the nearshore, thanks to diver-operated coring equipment, down to the continental slope, by means of vibracorer and long gravity core sampling in deeper areas. The examples provided show a multiproxy approach with a high potential of retrieving a complete record of paleotsunami traces at least during the Holocene. This is based on the combination of multidisciplinary approaches including X-ray imaging, high-resolution measurement of physical properties, X- ray fluorescence data, grain-size analysis, micropaleontology, palynological content, isotopic and optically stimulated luminescence dating methods.

This article is a response to the publication by Nick Marriner, David Kaniewski, Christophe Morhange, Clément Flaux, Matthieu Giaime, Matteo Vacchi and James Goff entitled “Tsunamis in the geological record: Making waves with a cautionary tale from the Mediterranean”, published in October 2017 in Science Advances. Making use of radiometric data sets published in the context of selected palaeotsunami studies by independent research groups from different countries, Marriner et al. (2017) carried out statistical and time series analyses. They compared their results with an assessment of Mediterranean storminess since the mid-Holocene that was previously published by Kaniewski et al. (2016) based on a single-core study from coastal Croatia. Marriner et al. (2017) now present “previously unrecognized” 1500-year “tsunami megacycles” which they suggest correlating with Mediterranean climate deterioration. They conclude that up to 90 % of all the ‘tsunamis’ identified in original tsunami papers used for their study are “better as­ cribed to periods of heightened storminess”. In this response, we show that (i) the comparison of statistical data describing storm and tsunami events presented by Marriner et al. (2017) is incorrect both from a geographical and a statistical point of view, (ii) the assumed periods of central Mediterranean storminess published by Kaniewski et al. (2016) are missing convincing geological and geochronological evidence and are statistically incorrect, (iii) the palaeotsunami data that was originally collected by different groups of authors were manipulated by Marriner et al. (2017) in a way that the resulting data set – used as a benchmark for the entire study of these authors – is wrong and inaccurate, and that (iv) Marriner et al. (2017) did not address or even negate the original sedimentological studies’ presentation of comparative tsunami versus storm deposits for the selected individual localities. Based on a thorough and detailed evaluation of the geoscientific background and the methodological approach of the studies by Kaniewski et al. (2016) and Marriner et al. (2017), we conclude that there is no serious and reliable geoscientific evidence for increased storminess in the (central) Mediterranean Sea between 3400–2550, 2000–1800, 1650–1450, 1300–900 and 400–100 cal BP. The impact of those storms in the Mediterranean, producing geological traces somewhat comparable to those caused by tsunamis, is insignificantly small. For the period 1902–2017, Mediterranean tsunamis make up 73–98 % of all com- bined extreme wave events (EWE) leading to coastal flooding and appeared up to 181 times deadlier than comparable storm effects. This is the reason why coastal Mediterranean research has focused on Holocene records of the tsunami hazard, while research on comparable storm effects is of lower significance. The validity of geological evidence for Mediterranean EWE and their interpretation as caused by palaeotsunami impacts thus remains untouched. Tsunamis, in most cases directly and indirectly induced by seismo-tectonics, have always been a much greater threat to Mediterranean coastal regions than com- parable storm effects. ‘Tsunami megacycles’ as expressions of a 1500-year periodicity centered on the Little Ice Age, 1600 and 3100 cal BP that were correlated with questionable storm data do not exist. Cause and effect relationships work the other way round: Major tsunami events, testified by historical accounts, such as those that occurred in 1908 AD, 1755 AD, 1693 AD and 365 AD, induced numerous studies along Mediterranean coasts. These investigations resulted in a large number of publications that specifically focus on those time periods, suspected by Marriner et al. (2017) to bear signs of increased storminess, namely 200–300 BP and 1600 BP. The Mediterranean tsunami record cannot be ascribed to periods of increased storminess. On the contrary, the tsunami record as interpreted by the authors of the original papers cited by Marriner et al. (2017), is due to the outstandingly high seismo-tectonic activity of the region. Mediterranean tsunamis are mostly triggered by earthquakes or by earthquake-related secondary effects such as underwater mass movements. The study by Marriner et al. (2017) is also problematic because it includes simple basic statisti- cal mistakes and major methodological inconsistencies. The geomorphological and sedimentary back- ground of EWE deposits was not taken into account. The ‘broad brush’ approach used by Marriner et al. (2017) to sweep sedimentary deposits from tsunami origin into the storm bag origin, just on the basis of (false) statistics coupled with very broad and unreliable palaeoclimatic indicators and time frames, is misleading. The distortion of original data collected and interpreted by other research groups by Marriner et al. (2017) is particularly disturbing. Their publication is also bound to question in this case the effective- ness of scientific quality assurance in modern publishing commerce. Marriner et al. (2017: 7) talk down the considerable risk to human settlements and infrastructure along Mediterranean coasts in relation to tsunami and earthquake hazards. Their conclusion is not only wrong as a result of their incorrect data mining and analyses, it is also irresponsible with regard to national and international efforts of tsunami and earthquake risk mitigation.