De Santis, Vincenzo

Late Quaternary crustal uplift is well recognized in northeast Sicily, southern Italy, a region also prone to damaging earthquakes such as the 1908 “Messina” earthquake (Mw 7.1), the deadliest seismic event reported within the Italian Earthquake Catalogue. Yet it is still understudied if, within the Milazzo Peninsula, crustal uplift rates are varying spatially and temporally and whether they may be either influenced by (i) local upper-plate faulting activity or (ii) deep geodynamic processes. To investigate the long-term crustal vertical movements in northeast Sicily, we have mapped a flight of Middle-Late Pleistocene marine terraces within the Milazzo Peninsula and in its southern area and refined their chronology, using a synchronous correlation approach driven by published age controls. This has allowed a new calculation of the associated crustal uplift rates, along a north–south oriented coastal-parallel transect within the investigated area. Our results show a decreasing uplift rate from south to north across the Milazzo Peninsula and beyond, and that the associated rates of uplift have been constant through the Late Quaternary. This spatially varying yet temporally constant vertical deformation helps to constrain the amount of uplift, allowing us to explore which is the driving mechanism(s), proposing a few related scenarios. We discuss our results in terms of tectonic implications and emphasize the importance of using appropriate approaches, as such applying a synchronous correlation method, to refine chronologies of undated palaeoshorelines when used for tectonic investigations.

We investigated the Late Pleistocene-Holocene crustal vertical movements off the coast of Marzamemi village in SE Sicily, Italy. By using a Synchronous Correlation Approach (SCA), we analysed terraced landforms that characterize a submerged sector within one of Southern Italy's most seismically active regions. In this area, the emerging portion of the NE-SW oriented bulge of the African foreland structurally shapes the coastal and marine regions off Marzamemi village. Based on a newly created 17 km2 high-resolution bathymetric map generated from a Multibeam Echosounder (MBES) survey conducted in June 2021, we identified and examined four main paleo-shorelines identifying four submerged terraces. Terraced landforms play a crucial role in reconstructing Quaternary glacial and interglacial stages, offering insights into associated sea level fluctuations. Through the application of the SCA, our goal is to refine the chronology of these recently mapped and submerged marine terraces off the Marzamemi village, thereby contributing to the calculation of associated rates of crustal vertical movements. We demonstrate that these rates persist constantly throughout the Late Pleistocene-Holocene epoch, suggesting overall tectonic stability, with a slight and likely local fault-related subsidence. We explore a few chronology scenarios, raising questions about whether these submerged marine terraces are indeed recording the Late Pleistocene-Holocene limit or not. This research contributes to a better understanding of the geological dynamics in this region and sheds light on the potential factors influencing coastal landscape development over time.

To refine knowledge about terrace phases and uplift history for a tectonically poor deformed region, we apply the synchronous correlation method to reconstruct the chronology of a poorly constrained sequence of raised palaeoshorelines on the Apulian foreland, southern Italy. This work uses new chronological constraints obtained by amino acid racemisation (AAR) and isoleucine/alloisoleucine epimerisation (IE) on Patella spp., Thetystrombus latus (Gmelin), Glycymeris sp., and ostracods and U-series dating on corals Hoplangia durotrix Gosse and Cladocora caespitosa Linneo. This procedure provides a quantitative estimate of the vertical movements and associated rates within a region of the Apulian foreland. The synchronous correlation method uses sea-level highstands and uplift rate(s) as inputs; in particular, for sea-level highstands, the inputs are the age of the highstands and the sea-level elevation of the highstands relative to the present-day sea level. The output is a set of currently expected elevations of each sea-level highstand (the present elevations of palaeoshorelines). We then used regression analysis to assess the robustness between our observed palaeoshorelines and expected elevations of sea-level highstands. Our results show that the best fitting scenario is obtained using the sea-level curves of (i) Waelbroeck et al. (2002) from present to 410 ky BP and (ii) Rohling et al. (2014) from 410 to 590 ky BP as inputs for our synchronous correlation method, with uplift rates ranging from 0.09 mm/y to 0.07 mm/y with a mean value of 0.08 mm/y from 590 ky BP onwards. We recognised palaeoshorelines in the field belonging to the following highstands: 120 ky BP (MIS 5.5, second peak), 127 ky BP (MIS 5.5, first peak), 212 ky BP (MIS 7.3), 330 ky BP (MIS 9.3), 410 (MIS 11), 525 ky BP (MIS 13.3), and 590 ky BP (MIS 15). Our results show field observations of the reoccupation effect of younger palaeoshorelines over older ones due to the relatively slow uplift rates measured in the investigated area as predicted by our synchronous correlation method. In particular, we show a well-mapped and described reoccupation of the MIS 5.5 palaeoshoreline over the MIS 7.3 palaeoshoreline, constrained by new absolute dating. In addition, the data from the Apulian foreland suggest an MIS 7.3 highstand close to the present sea level.

Low-lying coastal zones are highly subject to coastal hazards as a result of sea-level rise enhanced by natural or anthropogenic land subsidence. A combined analysis using sea-level data and remote sensing techniques allows the estimation of the current rates of land subsidence and shoreline retreat, supporting the development of quantified relative sea-level projections and flood maps, which are appropriate for specific areas. This study focuses on the coastal plain of Tavoliere delle Puglie (Apulia, Southern Italy), facing the Adriatic Sea. In this area, land subsidence is mainly caused by long-term tectonic movements and sediment compaction driven by high anthropogenic pressure, such as groundwater exploitation and constructions of buildings. To assess the expected effects of relative sea-level rise for the next decades, we considered the following multidisciplinary source data: (i) sea-level-rise projections for different climatic scenarios, as reported in the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, (ii) coastal topography from airborne and terrestrial LiDAR data, (iii) Vertical Land Movement (VLM) from the analysis of InSAR and GNSS data, and (iv) shoreline changes obtained from the analysis of orthophotos, historic maps, and satellite images. To assess the expected evolution of the coastal belt, the topographic data were corrected for VLM values, assuming that the rates of land subsidence will remain constant up to 2150. The sea-level-rise projections and expected flooded areas were estimated for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, corresponding to low and high greenhouse-gas concentrations, respectively. From our analysis, we estimate that in 2050, 2100, and 2150, up to 50.5 km2, 118.7 km2 and 147.7 km2 of the coast could be submerged, respectively, while beaches could retreat at rates of up to 5.8 m/yr. In this area, sea-level rise will be accelerated by natural and anthropogenic land subsidence at rates of up to −7.5 ± 1.7 mm/yr. Local infrastructure and residential areas are thus highly exposed to an increasing risk of severe inundation by storm surges and sea-level rise in the next decades.

The global sea-level rise (SLR) projections for the next few decades are the basis for developing flooding maps that depict the expected hazard scenarios. However, the spatially variable land subsidence has generally not been considered in the current projections. In this study, we use geodetic data from global navigation satellite system (GNSS), synthetic aperture radar interferometric measurements (InSAR) and sea-level data from tidal stations to show the combined effects of land subsidence and SLR along the coast between Catania and Marzamemi, in south-eastern Sicily (southern Italy). This is one of the most active tectonic areas of the Mediterranean basin, which drives accelerated SLR, continuous coastal retreat and increasing effects of flooding and storms surges. We focus on six selected areas, which show valuable coastal infrastructures and natural reserves where the expected SLR in the next few years could be a potential cause of significant land flooding and morphological changes of the coastal strip. Through a multidisciplinary study, the multi-temporal flooding scenarios until 2100, have been estimated. Results are based on the spatially variable rates of vertical land movements (VLM), the topographic features of the area provided by airborne Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) data and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections of SLR in the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. In addition, from the analysis of the time series of optical satellite images, a coastal retreat up to 70 m has been observed at the Ciane river mouth (Siracusa) in the time span 2001–2019. Our results show a diffuse land subsidence locally exceeding 10 ± 2.5 mm/year in some areas, due to compacting artificial landfill, salt marshes and Holocene soft deposits. Given ongoing land subsidence, a high end of RSLR in the RCP 8.5 at 0.52 ± 0.05 m and 1.52 ± 0.13 m is expected for 2050 AD and 2100 AD, respectively, with an exposed area of about 9.7 km2 that will be vulnerable to inundation in the next 80 years.

For the first time, the synchronous correlation technique and amino acid racemization (AAR) analyses of Patella spp. and Thetystrombus latus shells are applied to an understudied sequence of raised palaeoshorelines to refine the knowledge about terrace phases and uplift history in the middle-late Pleistocene in a sector of the Apulian foreland (western coast of the Salento Peninsula, southern Italy). These combined methodologies provide the first chronological attribution for middle-late Pleistocene palaeoshorelines and quantitative assessment of vertical crustal movements in this sector of the Apulian foreland, which, to date, has been characterised by a scarcity of reliable chronological data. By applying a synchronous correlation technique driven by new AAR analyses, we iterate different uplift rate scenarios to find the best match between digital terrain model and field-based observed palaeoshorelines and “expected” sea level highstand elevations. Our results show that two uplift rate scenarios could explain the mapped geomorphology: (i) scenario 1 suggests fluctuating uplift rates over time with an uplift rate of 0.15 mm/y until 130 ky BP (middle Pleistocene, interval MIS 15 - MIS 6; that is, 590 - 130 ky BP) and of 0.07 mm/y from 130 ky BP to the present; on the other hand, (ii) scenario 2 suggests a constant uplift rate of 0.12 mm/y over time in the middle-late Pleistocene. The palaeoshorelines recognised in this study are related to the following highstands: 119 ky BP (MIS 5.5 second peak), 125 ky BP (MIS 5.5), 240 ky BP (MIS 7.5), 340 ky BP (MIS 9.3), and 478 ky BP (MIS 13.1) for both scenarios 1 and 2. The two scenarios only differ in the oldest palaeoshoreline: 560 ky BP (MIS 15.3) in scenario 1 and 550 ky BP (MIS 15.1) in scenario 2. Our results highlight how the number of preserved palaeoshorelines is controlled by uplift rates; indeed, in this area, we show that fewer palaeoshorelines are preserved than in regions where higher uplift rates have beeninferred, suggesting a more prominent effect of the “overprinting” or re-occupation of younger sea level highstands over the older sea level highstands. Finally, we discuss geomorphological and geological implications of using a synchronous correlation approach, driven by new age controls, to model raised palaeoshorelines where relatively low uplift rates have been mapped within well-known geodynamically stable regions, such as the Apulian foreland, southern Italy.