Peronace, Edoardo

Nowadays, modeling of tephra fallout hazard is coupled with probabilistic analysis that takes into account the natural variability of the volcanic phenomena in terms of eruption probability, eruption sizes, vent position, and meteorological conditions. In this framework, we present a prototypal methodology to carry out the long-term tephra fallout hazard assessment in southern Italy from the active Neapolitan volcanoes: Somma–Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei, and Ischia. The FALL3D model (v.8.0) has been used to run thousands of numerical simulations (1500 per eruption size class), considering the ECMWF ERA5 meteorological dataset over the last 30 years. The output in terms of tephra ground load has been processed within a new workflow for large-scale, high resolution volcanic hazard assessment, relying on a Bayesian procedure, in order to provide the mean annual frequency with which the tephra load at the ground exceeds given critical thresholds at a target site within a 50-year exposure time. Our results are expressed in terms of absolute mean hazard maps considering different levels of aggregation, from the impact of each volcanic source and eruption size class to the quantification of the total hazard. This work provides for the first time, a multi-volcano probabilistic hazard assessment posed by tephra fallout, comparable with those used for seismic phenomena and other natural disasters. This methodology can be applied to any other volcanic areas or over different exposure times, allowing researchers to account for the eruptive history of the target volcanoes that, when available, could include the occurrence of less frequent large eruptions, representing critical elements for risk evaluations.

We present the first integrated tephrochronological study (major and trace elemental glass composition, Sr and Nd isotope analyses, and 40Ar/39Ar dating) for the last one tenth (∼82 m) of the ∼900 m-thick Quaternary lacustrine succession of the Fucino Basin, the largest and probably only Central Apennine intermountain tectonic depression that hosts a continuous lacustrine succession documenting the Plio-Quaternary sedimentary history up to historical times. Major element glass compositions, determined using a wavelength-dispersive electron microprobe (WDS-EMPA), yielded the geochemical fingerprinting needed for a reliable identification of most of the 23 stratigraphically ordered tephra layers under investigation. These include tephra from Italian volcanoes such as Campi Flegrei, Etna, Colli Albani, Ischia, Vico, Sabatini, and undefined volcanic sources in the Neapolitan area and Latium region. The recognition of key Mediterranean marker tephra layers (e.g. X-5 and X-6) is supported by trace element data acquired by Laser Ablation Inductively Couple Plasma Mass Spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS). The Sr and Nd isotope compositions of selected layers where also determined for circumscribing the volcanic source of distal tephra and for supporting correlations with individual eruptive units. We also propose a new, more expeditious covariation diagram (CaO/FeOtot vs Cl) for identifying the volcanic source of trachytic to phonolitic and tephrytic to phonolitic tephra, that are the most common compositions of pyroclastic rocks from volcanoes of Campania and Latium regions. Finally, we present five new 40Ar/39Ar age determinations, including a new, analytically well-supported, and more precise 40Ar/39Ar age for the widespread Y-7 tephra, and the first 40Ar/39Ar age determinations for one tephra from the Sabatini volcanic district (∼126 ka) and one tephra from Neapolitan volcanic area (Campi Flegrei?; ∼159 ka). These newly dated tephra are widely dispersed (e.g. Monticchio, southern Italy, Adriatic Sea and Lake Ohrid, Macedonia-Abania) and have thus the potential to become important Mediterranean MIS 5 and MIS 6 tephrochronological markers. Altogether the new geochemical data and 40Ar/39Ar ages precisely constrain the chronology of the investigated Fucino succession spanning the last ∼190 ka. In light of these results and by considering that this sedimentary succession possibly extends back to ∼2 Ma, Fucino is likely to provide a very long, continuous tephrostratigraphic record for the Mediterranean area and become a key node in the dense network of tephra correlations of this region.

Integrated electron microprobe analyses (EMPAs) on glass and Sr–Nd isotope analyses have been performed on 17 tephras from the Middle Pleistocene Mercure lacustrine succession, southern Apennines. Two 40Ar/39Ar ages and the recognition of four relevant tephras from Colli Albani, Sabatini and possibly Roccamonfina volcanoes allowed us to ascribe the investigated succession to the late Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 15–12 interval (560–440 ka). The Sr–Nd isotopes and major element glass compositions allowed us to attribute 10 out of the other 13 tephras to a poorly known activity of the Roccamofina volcano, whereas two layers were tentatively attributed to previously unknown Middle Pleistocene activity of Ponza Island or Campanian volcanoes, and one to Salina Island. The tephrostratigraphic correlation of the Mercure tephras with the Acerno lacustrine pollen record (Campania) also allowed us to evaluate the climatostratigraphic position of the tephras within the framework of the MIS 15–12 climatic variability. These results were obtained by combining the Sr–Nd isotope ratio with EMPA and 40Ar/39Ar geochronological data. This confirms the notable consistency of this approach for studying the Mediterranean Middle Pleistocene tephrostratigraphy, which, despite its great potential for both volcanology and Quaternary studies, has been hitherto barely explored.

Subito dopo l’evento del 6 aprile 2009, come di consueto è stata realizzata una lunga e complessa indagine macrosismica, promossa dal gruppo operativo QUEST, che ha avuto inizialmente l’obiettivo di delimitare l’area di danneggiamento, a supporto delle attività di pronto intervento della Protezione Civile, e successivamente quello di classificare nel modo più accurato e capillare possibile, gli effetti prodotti dall’evento, particolarmente nelle aree danneggiate. A questo scopo è stata prodotta una stima utilizzando la scala MCS (Sieberg, 1930); in un secondo momento è stata rifinita l’indagine per una cinquantina di località dell’area maggiormente danneggiata (Is MCS>VII), raccogliendo ed elaborando i dati in termini di scala macrosismica EMS98 (Grünthal, 1998). Per la complessità e la dimensione dei problemi affrontati, questo terremoto ha costituito un banco di prova di grande importanza per la macrosismologia italiana. In questo testo viene descritto il lavoro realizzato, discutendo in particolare alcuni aspetti che hanno messo alla prova le metodologie di indagine tradizionali (sistematiche irregolarità degli insediamenti monitorati, forti divergenze degli scenari di danno rispetto a quelli previsti dalle scale, difficile comparabilità con scenari storici, ecc.) e presentandone i risultati, in relazione ai parametri epicentrali che ne risultano e il loro contributo più diretto alla comprensione complessiva della sismicità dell’area.

Viene dato ragguaglio sulle operazioni di rilievo macrosismico relative al terremoto aquilano del 6 Aprile 2009 (Mw=6.3; Io=IX MCS) condotte dal QUEST e del risultato conseguito in termini di distribuzione delle intensità per 316 località visitate. Il terremoto, che ha provocato la distruzione di numerosi centri della conca Aquilana ed oltre 300 vittime, mostra un’area mesosimica allungata in direzione NW-SE, con una coda di forti risentimenti verso SE nella conca subèquana. Questo è in accordo con la geometria, cinematica e dinamica della rottura della struttura sismogenetica, individuata anche grazie alle evidenze di fagliazione di superficie seguite per circa 20 km lungo il versante nordorientale della Valle dell’Aterno, tra Collebrincioni e San Demetrio ne’ Vestini (sistema di faglie di Paganica-San Demetrio). Tale struttura viene anche indicata responsabile del terremoto “gemello” del 1461, oltre che da eventi di più elevata energia, come analisi paleosismologiche e rilievi geologici in corso hanno confermato.

On 6 April 2009, at 01:32 GMT, an Mw 6.3 seismic event hit the central Apennines, severely damaging the town of L’Aquila and dozens of neighboring villages and resulting in approximately 300 casualties (Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, http://www.ingv.it; MedNet, http://mednet.rm.ingv.it/proce- dure/events/QRCMT/090406_013322/qrcmt.html). This earth- quake was the strongest in central Italy since the devastating 1915 Fucino event (Mw 7.0). The INGV national seismic net- work located the hypocenter 5 km southwest of L’Aquila, 8–9 km deep. Based on this information and on the seismotectonic framework of the region, earthquake geologists traveled to the field to identify possible surface faulting (Emergeo Working Group 2009a, 2009b). The most convincing evidence of pri- mary surface rupture is along the Paganica fault, the geometry of which is consistent with seismological, synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and GPS data. Investigation of other known nor- mal faults of the area, i.e., the Mt. Pettino, Mt. San Franco, and Mt. Stabiata normal faults suggested that these structures were not activated during the April 6 shock (Emergeo Working Group 2009a, 2009b). In this report, we first describe the seismotectonic frame- work of the area, and then we present the field information that supports the occurrence of surficial displacement on the Paganica fault.

Il presente lavoro analizza lo stato delle conoscienze relative all'evoluzione geologica (stratigrafica e tettonica) quaternaria dell'area colpita dal terremoto del 6 Aprile 2009 al momento dell'occorrenza dell'evento sismico.