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Scotto, Carlo
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Scotto, Carlo
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- PublicationOpen AccessIonosonde Measurement Comparison during an Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME)- and a Corotating Interaction Region (CIR)-Driven Geomagnetic Storm over Europe(2024)
;Berényi , Kitti Alexandra; ; ; ;Kis, Árpád; ; ;; ; ; ;; A comparison of three types of ionosonde data from Europe during an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME)- and a corotating interaction region (CIR)-driven geomagnetic storm event is detailed in this study. The selected events are 16–20 March 2015 for the ICME-driven storm and 30 May to 4 June 2013 for the CIR-driven one. Ionospheric data from three European ionosonde stations, namely Pruhonice (PQ), Sopron (SO) and Rome (RO), are investigated. The ionospheric F2-layer responses to these geomagnetic events are analyzed with the ionospheric foF2 and h’F2 parameters, the calculated deltafoF2 and deltahF2 values, the ratio of total electron content (rTEC) and Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere, Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite Global Ultraviolet Imager (GUVI) thermospheric [O]/[N2] measurement data. The storm-time and the quiet-day mean values are also compared, and it can be concluded that the quiet-day curves are similar at all the stations while the storm-time ones show the latitudinal dependence during the development of the storm. As a result of the electron density comparison, during the two events, it can be concluded that the sudden storm commencement (SSC) that characterized the ICME induced a traveling atmospheric disturbance (TAD) seen in the European stations in the main phase, while this is not seen in the CIR-driven ionospheric storm, which shows a stronger and more prolonged negative effect in all the stations, probably due to the season and the depleted O/N2 ratio.4 7 - PublicationOpen AccessThe effects of the May 2024 Mother’s Day superstorm over the Mediterranean sector: from data to public communication(2024)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; On 8 May 2024, the solar active region AR13664 started releasing a series of intense solar flares. Those of class X released between 9 and 11 May 2024 gave rise to a chain of fast Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) that proved to be geoeffective. The Storm Sudden Commencement (SSC) of the resulting geomagnetic storm was registered on 10 May 2024 and it is, to date, the strongest event since November 2003. The May 2024 storm, named hereafter Mother’s Day storm, peaked with a Dst of –412 nT and stands out as a “standard candle” storm affecting modern era technologies prone to Space Weather threats. Moreover, the recovery phase exhibited almost no substorm signatures, making the Mother’s Day storm as a perfect storm example. Despite the plethora of notable near Earth environment modifications that are still under investigation, in this paper we concentrate on the Space Weather effects over the Mediterranean sector, with a focus on Italy. In fact, the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) manages a dense network of GNSS receivers (including scintillation receivers), ionosondes and magnetometers in the Mediterranean area, which facilitated for a detailed characterization of the modifications induced by the storm. Concerning the geomagnetic field, observatories located in Italy recorded a SSC with a rise time of only 3 minutes and a maximum variation of around 600 nT. The most notable ionospheric effect following the arrival of the disturbance was a significant decrease in plasma density on 11 May, resulting in a pronounced negative ionospheric storm registered on both the critical F2-layer frequency (foF2) and the Total Electron Content (TEC). Another negative effect was recorded on 13 May, while no signatures of composition changes and, specifically, to a decrease of the [O]/[N ] ratio. The IRI UP IONORING 2 data-assimilation procedure, recently developed to nowcast foF2 over Italy, proved to be quite reliable during this extreme event, being characterised just by an overestimation during the main phase of the storm, when the electron density and the height of the F region decreased and increased, respectively. Relevant outcomes of the work relate to the Rate Of TEC change Index (ROTI), which shows unusually high spatially distributed values on the nights of 10 and 11 May. The ROTI enhancements on 10 May might be linked to Stable Auroral Red (SAR) arcs and an equatorward displacement of the main ionospheric trough. Instead, the ROTI enhancements on 11 May might be triggered by a joint action of low-latitude plasma pushed poleward by the pre-reversal enhancement (PRE) in the post-sunset hours and wave-like perturbations propagating from the North. Furthermore, the storm generated immediate attention of the general public to Space Weather effects, including mid-latitude visible phenomena like SAR arcs. This paper outlines the report of the Space Weather Monitoring Group (SWMG) of the INGV Environment Department and its effort to disseminate information about this exceptional event.101 68 - PublicationOpen AccessAccuracy of hmF2 estimations, including IRI-2020 options and ionograms validated parameters, compared to ISR measurements at Millstone Hill(2023)
; ; ; ; ; Several empirical formulations used over time to estimate the fundamental ionospheric parameter hmF2 have been compared in this study. These are the first formulation proposed by Shimazaki (1955) (SHI-1955) as a function of the propagation parameter M(3000)F2, the more accurate BSE-1979 formula proposed by Bilitza et al. (1979) and firstly adopted by the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model, and the newest Altadill-Magdaleno-Torta-Blanch (AMTB-2013) (Altadill et al., 2013) and SHU-2015 (Shubin, 2015) models, obtained with a different approach with no explicit dependence on any ionospheric parameter and added as alternative options in the IRI-2016. The evaluation of the accuracy of the available formulation is performed by comparing the modeled values of hmF2 with those simultaneously obtained with independent measurements from the Incoherent Scatter Radar (ISR) installed at the Millstone Hill ionospheric station. The database considered consists of 3626 measurements, thus allowing the evaluation of the results for different heliogeophysical conditions. SHI-1955 and BSE-1979 formulations are evaluated also using input data manually scaled from ionograms recorded at the same location, with the aim of evaluating their accuracy when updated with validated data rather than modeled ones. The SHU-2015 is confirmed the best option in any condition, while AMTB-2013 turns out to perform poorly during night, when SHI-1955 and BSE-1979 fed by validated data can be used for trend analyses due to the high correlation with ISR data. Despite this, BSE-1979 performs better with modeled parameters as input, in terms of RMSE and mean deviation from ISR data. The use of SHI-1955 with CCIR-modeled M(3000)F2 is discouraged under daytime conditions even for long trend analyses.72 41 - PublicationOpen AccessSpace Weather Effects Observed in the Northern Hemisphere during November 2021 Geomagnetic Storm: The Impacts on Plasmasphere, Ionosphere and Thermosphere Systems(2022-11-15)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;; ; ; ;; ; ; ; ; ;; ; On 3 November 2021, an interplanetary coronal mass ejection impacted the Earth’s magnetosphere leading to a relevant geomagnetic storm (Kp = 8-), the most intense event that occurred so far during the rising phase of solar cycle 25. This work presents the state of the solar wind before and during the geomagnetic storm, as well as the response of the plasmasphere–ionosphere–thermosphere system in the European sector. To investigate the longitudinal differences, the ionosphere–thermosphere response of the American sector was also analyzed. The plasmasphere dynamics was investigated through field line resonances detected at the European quasi-Meridional Magnetometer Array, while the ionosphere was investigated through the combined use of ionospheric parameters (mainly the critical frequency of the F2 layer, foF2) from ionosondes and Total Electron Content (TEC) obtained from Global Navigation Satellite System receivers at four locations in the European sector, and at three locations in the American one. An original method was used to retrieve aeronomic parameters from observed electron concentration in the ionospheric F region. During the analyzed interval, the plasmasphere, originally in a state of saturation, was eroded up to two Earth’s radii, and only partially recovered after the main phase of the storm. The possible formation of a drainage plume is also observed. We observed variations in the ionospheric parameters with negative and positive phase and reported longitudinal and latitudinal dependence of storm features in the European sector. The relative behavior between foF2 and TEC data is also discussed in order to speculate about the possible role of the topside ionosphere and plasmasphere response at the investigated European site. The American sector analysis revealed negative storm signatures in electron concentration at the F2 region. Neutral composition and temperature changes are shown to be the main reason for the observed decrease of electron concentration in the American sector.661 72 - PublicationOpen AccessIonospheric response over Brazil to the August 2018 geomagnetic storm as probed by CSES‐01 and Swarm satellites and by local ground‐based observations(2021-02)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; The geomagnetic storm occurred on 25 August 2018, i.e. during the minimum of solar cycle 24, is currently the strongest ever probed by the first China Seismo‐Electromagnetic Satellite (CSES‐01). By integrating the in situ measurements provided by CSES‐01 (orbiting at altitude of 507 km) and by Swarm A satellite (orbiting at ca. 470 km) with ground‐based observations (ionosondes, magnetometers and Global Navigation Satellite System receivers), we investigate the ionospheric response at low‐ and mid‐ latitudes over Brazil. Specifically, we investigate the electrodynamic disturbances driven by solar wind changes, by focusing on the disturbances driving modifications of the Equatorial Electrojet (EEJ). Our proposed multi‐sensor technique analysis mainly highlights the variations in the topside and bottomside ionosphere, and the interplay between Prompt Penetrating Electric Fields and Disturbance Dynamo Electric Fields resulting in EEJ variations. Thanks to this approach and leveraging on the newly available CSES‐01 data, we complement and extend what recently investigated in the Western South American sector, by highlighting the significant longitudinal differences, which mainly come from the occurrence of a daytime counter‐EEJ during both 25 and 26 August at Brazilian longitudes and during part of 26 August only in the Peruvian sector. In addition, the increased thermospheric circulation driven by the storm has an impact on the EEJ during the recovery phase of the storm. The observations at the CSES‐01/Swarm altitudes integrated with the ground‐based observation recorded signatures of Equatorial Ionospheric Anomaly (EIA) crests formation and modification during daytime coupled with the positive ionospheric storm effects at mid‐latitude.1404 50 - PublicationRestrictedTesting of the Method Retrieving a Consistent Set of Aeronomic Parameters With Millstone Hill ISR Noontime hₘF₂ Observations(2021)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; Millstone Hill incoherent scatter radar (ISR) noontime hₘF₂ observations in the (2000-2016) period have been used to test the thermospheric parameters from ionosonde observations (THERION) method. The input parameters apart from the standard indices of solar F10.7 and geomagnetic Aₚ activity include noontime fₒF₂ and plasma frequency at 180-km height read from the fₚ(h) height profiles scaled from the ionograms with the Autoscala program. The THERION method provides a self-consistent set of the main aeronomic parameters responsible for the mid-latitude daytime ionospheric F-region formation, hₘF₂ in particular. Overall, 60 dates under various solar and geomagnetic activity levels have been used for the analysis. The retrieved hₘF₂ values demonstrate a standard deviation of 10.6 km, and this is close to the expected inaccuracy of hₘF₂ determination with the Millstone Hill ISR. The correlation coefficient between the retrieved and the observed hₘF₂ is 0.937 ± 0.051, which is significant at the confidence level >99.9%. The undertaken analysis has confirmed the earlier obtained conclusion on the possibility to extract the main aeronomic parameters from the routine ionosonde observations with the THERION method.324 6 - PublicationOpen AccessClimatology of Spread F over Tucumán from Massive Statistical Analysis of Autoscaled DataAutomatic ionogram interpretation methods developed for real-time ionospheric monitoring can be applied in retrospective studies to analyze large quantities of data. The Autoscala software, implemented for such a purpose, includes a routine for automatic detection of diffused echoes known as spread F, which appear in ionograms due to the presence of ionospheric irregularities along the radio signal path. The main objective of this routine is to reject bad quality ionograms. This new capability was used in a climatological study including a large number of ionograms recorded at the low-latitude ionospheric station of Tucumán (26.9° S, 294.6° E, magnetic latitude 15.5° S, Argentina). The study took into account different levels of geomagnetic and solar activity from 2012 to 2020. The results demonstrate the capability of Autoscala to capture the main signature characteristics of spread F and the temporal evolution of the ionosphere peak heigh hmF2, capturing the post-sunset plasma surge that precedes development of spread F. Maximum occurrence of spread F is observed in local summer, with a tendency to shift before midnight with increasing solar activity. Other new climatological details that emerged from the study are illustrated and briefly discussed, dealing with connection with geomagnetic activity, and morning hmF2 behavior after extremely marked nighttime spread F occurrence.
223 45 - PublicationRestrictedAccuracy assessment of the MUF(3000) nowcasting for PECASUS Space Weather services(IEEE, 2020-08)
; ; ; ; ; The Pan-European Consortium for Aviation Space Weather User Services (PECASUS) is one of the three global Space Weather Centers appointed by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) to generate Space Weather advisories for aviation users. One of the key operational 24/7 products developed by INGV for the HF domain is the MUF(3000) nowcasting, based on a mapping procedure over Europe, which makes use of the available real-time measurements in different locations, and the Ordinary Kriging method for spatial interpolation. The outputs of this procedure have been analysed during three strong geomagnetic storms, and the results have been compared on the basis of the Root Mean Square Error values obtained between predicted and measured MUF(3000) values at two different test stations. A good accuracy is achieved during the considered storm periods, being the overall Root Mean Square Error values at the test stations less than 2 MHz. However, particular cases show that this method could miss possible sudden ionospheric perturbations, and the effect of erroneous data on the accuracy estimation.75 8 - PublicationRestrictedImprovements in bottomside electron density definition in the Autoscala programSome improvements introduced in the Autoscala program are presented. They include improvements in E valley modeling of the electron density profile Ne(h), and in the link between the E valley and bottom-side F regions. An abrupt variation in Ne(h) generated by the previous version of Autoscala under night conditions has been eliminated. A series of ionograms recorded by the Millstone Hill digisonde (42.6°, 288.5°) were automatically interpreted by the previous version of Autoscala and by the new one. Data from Incoherent Scatter Radar (ISR) were used to comparatively assess the performance of the two versions. For this purpose, the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of the Ne(h) provided by Autoscala were calculated relative to the corresponding values provided by ISR. A more accurate overall modeling of Ne(h) was achieved by the new Autoscala version (RMSE = 0.51 MHz for the new version against RMSE = 0.67 MHz for the previous one).
272 7 - PublicationOpen AccessThe Accuracy of Real-Time hmF2 Estimation from IonosondesA total of 4991 ionograms recorded from April 1997 to December 2017 by the Millstone Hill Digisonde (42.6°N, 288.5°E) were considered, with simultaneous Ne(h)[ISR] profiles recorded by the co-located Incoherent Scatter Radar (ISR). The entire ionogram dataset was scaled with both the Autoscala and ARTIST programs. The reliability of the hmF2 values obtained by ARTIST and Autoscala was assessed using the corresponding ISR values as a reference. Average errors Δ and the root mean square errors RMSE were computed for the whole dataset. Data analysis shows that both the Autoscala and ARTIST systems tend to underestimate hmF2 values with |Δ| in all cases less than 10 km. For high magnetic activity ARTIST offers better accuracy than Autoscala, as evidenced by RMSE[ARTIST] < RMSE[Autoscala], under both daytime and nighttime conditions, and considering all hours of the day. Conversely, under low and medium magnetic activity Autoscala tends to estimate hmF2 more accurately than the ARTIST system for both daytime and nighttime conditions, when RMSE[Autoscala] < RMSE[ARTIST]. However, RMSE[Autoscala] slightly exceeds RMSE[ARTIST] for the day as a whole. RMSE values are generally substantial (RMSE > 16 km in all cases), which places a limit on the results obtainable with real-time models that ingest ionosonde data.
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