Department of Science and Technology, University of Naples “Parthenope”, Naples, Italy

The amount of coastal subsidence on the Sele River coastal plain has been examined and measured with local vertical land movement data. The vertical displacements, derived by satellite radar differential interferometry processing (Ps-InSAR), show that the analysed coastal sector is characterised by a southeastward decrease of vertical subsidence rates. These results have been coupled with sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios, in order to identify the most critical areas. In general, the subsidence mostly affects areas where alluvial deposits are thicker, the back-dune areas and the Sele River mouth, all late Holocene in age. Five local SLR scenarios allow identifying zones in the plain potentially prone to inundation and the shoreline retreat for the years 2065 and 2100. For these dates, 2.2% and 7.06% of the investigated area will have a topography lower than the estimated future sea level. Moreover, results show that the extent of the areas potentially exposed to inundation and erosion increases moving from south to north.

This paper presents the results of the geological and geomorphological investigation carried out during the first level seismic microzonation project in the Isernia Province territory. The study area falls in one of the most seismically active areas of the Apennine chain and it has been struck, in historical times, by destructive earthquakes that caused several causalities and diffuse damages to the buildings. The analysis points out the occurrence of geological features that can determine possible site amplification phenomena related to areas with extensive outcrops of thick continental deposits or to unstable areas (both covering about 48% of the investigated areas). The latter are sometimes combined with geomorphological features such as scarps, isolated peaks, and ridges that are also responsible for possible site amplification. In addition, a susceptibility to local seismic amplification index has been introduced which highlights that more than 64% of the investigated area, along with a significant percentage of buildings, fall within the highest categories of susceptibility to local seismic amplification.

Interdisciplinary studies of the last years highlight that the Italian coasts are significantly subject to retreat and to inundation by sea ingression due to natural and anthropic causes. In this study, the effects of future relative sea level have been evaluated for the Volturno River Plain, one of the widest coastal plain in southern Italy. The plain is characterized by high economical and ecological value, for the presence of farm activities, tourist structures and wetland protected zones. The study area is potentially prone to coastal flooding due to its very low topography and because it is affected by a severe subsidence, which emphasize the local effect of sea level rise due to the ongoing climate changes. In accordance with the guidelines of the MEDFLOOD project, the areas prone to inundation in the years 2065 and 2100 have been evaluated by comparing the future topographical information and expected relative sea level scenarios. The local Vertical Ground Displacements have been derived by PS-InSAR processing data whilst the mean values of the scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 provided by the IPCC (2014) have been used as future sea level projections in 2065 and 2100. The PS-InSar data elaboration shows that the area affected by subsidence corresponds to 35% of the Volturno plain and that the annual rate of the phenomenon ranges between 1 and 25 mm/yr. The inundation analysis, based on the classification of the areas in four hazard classes, indicates that in 2065 the zones located below the sea level will increase approximately of 50% respect to the present conditions, while between 2065 and 2100 the increase can be at least of 60% (IPCC, RCP 8.5 scenarios). Considering the socio-economical and ecological exposure, evaluated following the EUROSION project guidelines, the coastal flooding risk maps have been produced. Almost 8.2 km2 and 14.4 km2 of the investigated area has to be considered subject to very high marine inundation risk in 2065 and 2100,respectively.