Thouret, Jean-Claude

When teaching at a non-English language universi- ty, we often argue that because English is the international language, students need to become familiar with English terms, even if the bulk of the class is in the native language. However, to make the meaning of the terms clear, a translation into the native language is always useful. Correct translation of terminology is even more crucial for emergency managers and decision makers who can be confronted with a confusing and inconsistently applied mix of terminology. Thus, it is im- perative to have a translation that appropriately converts the meaning of a term, while being grammatically and lexicologically correct, before the need for use. If terms are not consistently defined across all languages following indus- try standards and norms, what one person believes to be a dog, to another is a cat. However, definitions and translations of English scientific and technical terms are not always available, and language is constantly evolving. We live and work in an international world where English is the common language of multi-cultural exchange. As a result, while finding the correct translation can be difficult because we are too used to the English language terms, translated equivalents that are avail- able may not have been through the peer review process. We have explored this issue by discussing grammatically and lexicologically correct French, German, Icelandic, Indonesian, Italian, Portuguese, Russian, Spanish, and Japanese versions for terms involved in communicating effu- sive eruption intensity.

One of the seven potentially active andesite stratovolcanoes in southern Peru, Misti (5822 m), located 17 km northeast and 3.5 km above Arequipa, represents a major threat to the population (f900,000 inhabitants). Our recent geophysical and geochemical research comprises an extensive self-potential (SP) data set, an audioâ magnetotelluric (AMT) profile across the volcano and CO2 concentrations in the soil along a radial profile. The SP survey is the first of its kind in providing a complete mapping of a large andesitic stratovolcano 20 km in diameter. The SP mapping enables us to analyze the SP signature associated with a subduction-related active volcano. The general SP pattern of Misti is similar to that of most volcanoes with a hydrogeologic zone in the lower flanks and a hydrothermal zone in the upper central area. A quasi-systematic relationship exists between SP and elevation. Zones with constant SP/altitude gradients (Ce) are observed in both hydrogeologic (negative Ce) and hydrothermal (positive Ce) zones. Transition zones between the different Ce zones, which form a concentric pattern around the summit, have been interpreted in terms of lateral heterogeneities in the lithology. The highest amplitudes of SP anomalies seem to coincide with highly resistive zones. The hydrothermal system 6 km in diameter, which extends over an area much larger than the summit caldera, may be constrained by an older, concealed collapse caldera. A sealed zone has apparently developed through alteration in the hydrothermal system, blocking the migration of CO2 upward. Significant CO2 emanations are thus observed on the lower flanks but are absent above the hydrothermal zone.

Ubinas volcano has had 23 degassing and ashfall episodes since A.D. 1550, making it the historically most active volcano in southern Peru. Based on fieldwork, on interpretation of aerial photographs and satellite images, and on radiometric ages, the eruptive history of Ubinas is divided into two major periods. Ubinas I (Middle Pleistocene 376 ka) is characterized by lava flow activity that formed the lower part of the edifice. This edifice collapsed and resulted in a debris-avalanche deposit distributed as far as 12 km downstream the Rio Ubinas. Non-welded ignimbrites were erupted subsequently and ponded to a thickness of 150 m as far as 7 km south of the summit. These eruptions probably left a small collapse caldera on the summit of Ubinas I. A 100-m thick sequence of ash-and-pumice flow deposits followed, filling paleo-valleys 6 km from the summit. Ubinas II, 376 ky to present comprises several stages. The summit cone was built by andesite and dacite flows between 376 and 142 ky. A series of domes grew on the southern flank and the largest one was dated at 250 ky; block-and-ash flow deposits from these domes filled the upper Rio Ubinas valley 10 km to the south. The summit caldera was formed between 25 and 9.7 ky. Ash-flow deposits and two Plinian deposits reflect explosive eruptions of more differentiated magmas. A debris-avalanche deposit (about 1.2 km3) formed hummocks at the base of the 1,000-m-high, fractured and unstable south flank before 3.6 ka. Countless explosive events took place inside the summit caldera during the last 9.7 ky. The last Plinian eruption, dated A.D.1000-1160, produced an andesitic pumice-fall deposit, which achieved a thickness of 25 cm 40 km SE of the summit. Minor eruptions since then show phreatomagmatic characteristics and a wide range in composition (mafic to rhyolitic): the events reported since A.D. 1550 include many degassing episodes, four moderate (VEI 2-3) eruptions, and one VEI 3 eruption in A.D. 1667. Ubinas erupted high-K, calc-alkaline magmas (SiO2=56 to 71%). Magmatic processes include fractional crystallization and mixing of deeply derived mafic andesites in a shallow magma chamber. Parent magmas have been relatively homogeneous through time but reflect variable conditions of deep-crustal assimilation, as shown in the large variations in Sr/Y and LREE/HREE. Depleted HREE and Y values in some lavas, mostly late mafic rocks, suggest contamination of magmas near the base of the >60-km-thick continental crust. The most recently erupted products (mostly scoria) show a wide range in composition and a trend towards more mafic magmas. Recent eruptions indicate that Ubinas poses a severe threat to at least 5,000 people living in the valley of the Rio Ubinas, and within a 15-km radius of the summit. The threat includes thick tephra falls, phreatomagmatic ejecta, failure of the unstable south flank with subsequent debris avalanches, rain-triggered lahars, and pyroclastic flows. Should Plinian eruptions of the size of the Holocene events recur at Ubinas, tephra fall would affect about one million people living in the Arequipa area 60 km west of the summit.

We propose a long-term probabilistic multi-hazard assessment for El Misti Volcano, a composite cone located <20 km from Arequipa. The second largest Peruvian city is a rapidly expanding economic centre and is classified by UNESCO as World Heritage. We apply the Bayesian Event Tree code for Volcanic Hazard (BET_VH) to produce probabi- listic hazard maps for the predominant volcanic phenomena that may affect c.900,000 people living around the volcano. The methodology accounts for the natural variability displayed by volcanoes in their eruptive behaviour, such as different types/sizes of eruptions and possible vent locations. For this purpose, we treat probabilistically several model runs for some of the main hazardous phenomena (lahars, pyroclastic density currents (PDCs), tephra fall and ballistic ejecta) and data from past eruptions at El Misti (tephra fall, PDCs and lahars) and at other volcanoes (PDCs). The hazard maps, although neglecting possible interactions among phenomena or cascade effects, have been produced with a homogeneous method and refer to a common time window of 1 year. The probability maps reveal that only the north and east suburbs of Arequipa are exposed to all volcanic threats except for ballistic ejecta, which are limited to the uninhabited but touristic summit cone. The probability for pyroclastic density currents reaching recently expanding urban areas and the city along ravines is around 0.05 %/year, similar to the probability obtained for roof-critical tephra load- ing during the rainy season. Lahars represent by far the most probable threat (around 10 %/year) because at least four radial drainage channels can convey them approximately 20 km away from the volcano across the entire city area in heavy rain episodes, even without eruption. The Río Chili Valley repre- sents the major concern to city safety owing to the probable cascading effect of combined threats: PDCs and rockslides, dammed lake break-outs and subsequent lahars or floods. Although this study does not intend to replace the current El Misti hazard map, the quantitative results of this probabilistic multi-hazard assessment can be incorporated into a multi-risk analysis, to support decision makers in any future improvement of the current hazard evaluation, such as further land-use planning and possible emergency management.