Hattori, Katsumi

Geoelectrical and geomagnetic fluctuations are considered the end product of several geophysical phenomena. In particular these signals measured in seismically active areas can be attributed to stress and strain changes associated with earthquakes. The complexity of this problem has suggested the development of advanced sophysticated methods to investigate the heterogeneous nature of these fluctuations. In this paper, we analyzed the time dynamics of short-term variability of geoelectrical potential differences and geomagnetic fields obsereved at Kiyosumi (KYS), Uchiura (UCU), and Fudago (FDG) stations, located in the southern part of Boso Peninsula, one of the most seismically active areas in Japan. Anomalous changes in electric and magnetic fields are obeserved in mid-night on October 6, 2002. the anomalous signals observed on October 6, 2002 are different from those originated from the train and other cultural noises according to the investigation on preferred directions of geoelectric field. The investigation of simaltaneous geomagnetic field changes suggest that the source of the electromagnetic change might be generated by underground current because of the polarity pattern oberved at KYS, UCU and FDG. Therefore, electrokinetic assumption under the ground seems one of the possible solutions for the generation of anomalous signals. It is important to understand the ULF electromagnetic environment for the study on the preparation process of crustal activity and systematic understanding both electromagnetic and seismic phenomena.

In order to monitor temporal and spatial crustal activities associated with earthquakes, ground- and satellite-based monitoring systems have been installed in China since the 1990s. In recent years, the correlation between monitoring strain anomalies and local major earthquakes has been verified. In this study, we further evaluate the possibility of strain anomalies containing earthquake precursors by using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) prediction. First, strain network anomalies were extracted in the borehole strain data recorded in Western China during 2010–2017. Then, we proposed a new prediction strategy characterized by the number of network anomalies in an anomaly window, Nano, and the length of alarm window, Talm. We assumed that clusters of network anomalies indicate a probability increase of an impending earthquake, and consequently, the alarm window would be the duration during which a possible earthquake would occur. The Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) between true predicted rate, tpr, and false alarm rate, fpr, is measured to evaluate the efficiency of the prediction strategies. We found that the optimal strategy of short-term forecasts was established by setting the number of anomalies greater than 7 within 14 days and the alarm window at one day. The results further show the prediction strategy performs significantly better when there are frequent enhanced network anomalies prior to the larger earthquakes surrounding the strain network region. The ROC detection indicates that strain data possibly contain the precursory information associated with major earthquakes and highlights the potential for short-term earthquake forecasting.